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Survey USA has just released this statewide poll whose topline numbers are as follows:

Deeds 42
McAuliffe 30
Moran 21

the 12 point margin is roughly equivalent to the 14 points in the PPP released yesterday.

Deeds also does best against McDonnell, losing by 4, while with McAuliffe it is 7 and Moran it is 11.

And a few snips explaining the turnaround:

In the Washington DC suburbs, Deeds tripled his support, from 12% in April to today 40%. SurveyUSA's detailed analysis of Primary voting in 4 NE VA counties, released just 7 days ago, today looks like ancient history.

Among those who do not own a gun, Deeds tripled his support, from 13% to today 42%.

Among women, Deeds tripled his support, from 13% to today 40%.

Among those who attend religious services regularly, Deeds doubled his support, from 20% to today 44%.

More below

Demo breakouts in order  Deeds - McAuliffe - Moran

Males  44-30-23

Females  40-30-20

Blacks  32-37-21

Whites  47-28-19

Other   28-35-29

Repub  41-31-26

Dem    37-35-20

Indep  52-19-24

By Region

Shenandoah  50-26-15

Northeast   40-24-32

Southeast   39-38-17

Central     41-30-20

Demo breakout

M-F  46-54

White- Black-other (includ Hispanic)  63-27-10

Party  Rep - Dem - Indep    8-62-29

region  Shen - NE - SE - Centr   21-26-26-27

My commentary
first, the way regions are defined in this are different than the use of area codes in PPP.   Still, this MAY understate the proportion that will be from Northeast, even so, remember that Deeds is now, thanks to Wash Post endorsement running very strong there

Second,  be cautious, because we are in uncharted ground for a gubernatorial primary.  Last one for Virginia Dems was in 1977, and we are a very different electorate.

Still, this does confirm the trends, and insofar as it gets news coverage will probably add to momentum being shown by Deeds.



ps - I am a Deeds supporter, but this is reportage, not advocacy.

UPDATE "Major" NoVa endorsement is State Sen. Toddy Puller of 36th Senate District.  She is the widow of Pulitzer Prize winning author Lewis B. Puller Jr. (for his autobiography Fortunate Son.   He lost both legs in Vietnam.  He was the son of legendary Marine Lt. Gen "Chesty" Puller who went from Private to 3 stars, and won something like 5 Navy Crosses in his distinguished career.  Her district is in Fairfax and Prince William Counties.  

Originally posted to teacherken on Mon Jun 08, 2009 at 08:58 AM PDT.

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