Technically, only half Iranian. My father is Iranian. My parents met in the US, and lived in Iran from 1972-1977. Most of the rest of my father's family left shortly after the Revolution. We still have friends and family in Iran.
I've been toying with writing a diary on Iran, but others have done a very good job and really haven't seen a point to it.
But, well, why not.
A Little About MeMy family's perspective is slightly different from other Iranian ex-pats. We're not Shah supporters for one. For another, my father is originally from Mashad, but lived in Tehran after graduating from college in the US.
When I first heard of the protest, my immediate reaction was "here we go again." Another protest against the Islamic Republic of Iran. This has happened before, albeit not to this degree.
I, too, spoke with my father. His reaction: the protests will die down in about a week. He goes back fairly often, and speaks with a lot of people in Iran frequently. (I think he's looking for a wife.)
My views on the Elections
The protests are exciting. They are not Revolutionary. Not by a long shot. The "Regime" is not in any danger of falling. Khamenei and Ahmadinejad are in danger of falling, but the system is not in danger of collapsing.
The protests were sparked by voter fraud. There are two movements going on right now: one because of a split in the elite, and another of the people demanding reform. Right now, the interests of one faction of the elites and the population are in alignment.
Here is the current crisis. The Iranian government gets its legitimacy primarily through the people. It has since the Revolution. Yes, it gets some legitimacy through Islam. But, the government claims to get its legitimacy through the Iranian people. (And there are democratic institutions in Iran. They are imperfect, but they are there.)
The Elites
This fraud has robbed Ahmadinejad of any possibility of legitimacy. He is genuinely popular among a large percentage of Iranians. He may have actually won. He could not have won by the purported margin, especially not in every district. Now, even if he actually does win this election in a recount or a revote, no one will actually believe it.
Khamenei could have remained untouched. But, he allied himself with Ahmadinejad during the last election. This is irregular; the Supreme Leader isn’t supposed to endorse any candidates. Khamenei also certified the elections far too quickly. That was a very clumsy move. He is being blamed for the fixing of the election, primarily from certifying the elections that quickly.
The people are ticked, because they believe their elections were stolen, and therefore the "elected" government, and the Supreme Leader that certified false results, have no legitimacy. The Supreme Leader being corrupt is a much bigger deal than the election of the president. Hence, protests.
There are institutions within the Iranian constitution to deal with a corrupt Supreme Leader. The Assembly of Experts, which is headed by Rafsanjani, can dismiss the Supreme Leader and appoint a new one. I heard that an emergency meeting of the Assembly of Experts has been called. There is only one reason why this would occur: to deal with Khamenei.
There are other Grand Ayatollahs, with a far better religious resumes than Khamenei’s. Khamenei was hastily promoted, for many reasons. He didn’t get his position because he deserved it.
Mousavi is very much in favor the Islamic Republic. He would never have been allowed to run is he wasn’t. He wants reform, but not an overthrow of the government. He was one of the early leaders of the Revolution. He is not a new politician. He has been out of the public eye for 20 years, but he was one of Khatami’s advisers. And he was asked to run for the presidency twice before. He is leading these protests; he is going to ensure that they are asking for reform, nor for revolution.
Rafsanjani is in favor of Rafsanjani first and Iran a close second. He is a very, very shrewd politician, and is extremely powerful. Some think he is more powerful than Khamenei. I agree with this assessment. Rafsanjani is also one of the richest men in the world. Meaning he can bribe where ideological persuasion fails. (Not saying that he does this, but he’s got enough money to do it if he so chooses to.) Rafsanjani is currently the leader of the Assembly of Experts (council that oversees the Supreme Leader; and this is an elected body) and the Expediency Council (not elected; oversees all parts of government). Rafsanjani is in a very good position to oust both Khamenei and Ahmadinejad. And it would be legal, and completely Constitutional. Just something that hasn't been done before.
The Protestors
There have been protests in the past. Each protest gets bigger. Each protest is touted by the ex-pat community as being the start of the next Revolution that will topple the mullahs. None have been about toppling the mullahs. All have been about reforming the current system.
Here is what I believe the Iranian people want. They want reform in the system. They want less social restrictions. They want more personal freedoms. There is no reason why they cannot get these within the current form of government, if given new leadership. The current Constitution can be modified. The vetting of candidates can be eliminated, or at least have a more transparent vetting process. All of the bodies are in some way responsive to the people. An elected body selects members of every non-elective institution. An elected body selects the Supreme Leader, and is tasked with dismissing him if necessary. The Constitution may need to be modified, but it doesn’t need to be thrown out all together.
The people want a better democracy. Not an overthrow of the entire system. Khamenei may go, but the institutions in Iran won’t. They may get modified.
With any mass protest movement, things can get out of hand. No one wants a repeat of the Revolution. There have been deaths, but it could be much, much worse. And it could still get much worse. So far, the Basiji have done far more vandalism than killing. This is a good thing. Tragic as the deaths have been, it could have been much, much worse. The people know this. They are doing everything they can to ensure that the Revolutionary Guard and the Basiji have no excuse to turn the protests violent. (Hence the silent march yesterday.) They are also ensuring that this isn't revolutionary. Not yet.
What next?
There are several things that could happen next.
- Khamenei goes ahead with the recount. He either declares it an honest election, and looks like a corrupt politician, or he gives out the "real" results. If he upholds the current results, he will look corrupt, and give strength to any movement to oust him. If he gives out the "real" results, he will have a fall guy. The results may still be fake, but there will be no clear winner. There will be a run off election to quiet the demonstrations. The demonstrations would continue.
- Khamenei gets dismissed. This is unlikely now, but could be a possibility if the demonstrations start to get out of control. I think this is what Rafsanjani is currently trying to do.
- Mousavi gets the re-vote he wants. I doubt this would happen. The demonstrations would ease at this. Unless Mousavi didn't win the re-vote.
- The unexpected. Mousavi has some control over the protests. This could change. The movement could get beyond simply having a vote count, and be about the entire system. (It is not about the system right now.) This would be very, very bad. The Basiji would stop showing the restraint they are currently showing. (Yes, they are showing some restraint.) There would be a blood bath.
- The protests run out of steam, as they have in the past.
So that’s my long winded assessment of the situation.