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Doom sells.  When someone says "the sky is falling" it's easy to say "yes it is -- and we're all just plain going to hell."  However, the data points of the last 3-4 months indicate the economy is bottoming.  In addition, the leading economic indicators tell us the possibility of recovery is very high.  Let's look at what the data says.

Let's start with the index of leading economic indicators:

The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. increased sharply for the second consecutive month in May. In addition, the strengths among its components continued to exceed the weaknesses this month. Vendor performance, the interest rate spread, real money supply, stock prices, consumer expectations, and building permits contributed positively to the index, more than offsetting the negative contributions from weekly hours and initial unemployment claims. The index rose 1.2 percent (a 2.4 percent annual rate) between November 2008 and May 2009, the first time the index has increased over a six-month period since July 2007, and the strengths among the leading indicators have become balanced with the weaknesses during this period.

Two months in a row of extremely strong readings is extremely important as it indicates there are strong currents of recovery in the making.

UPDATE:  New Deal democrat here.  Bonddad has allowed me to add to the content of his diary with more information about the Leading Economic Indicators.

Here is how the LEI look on a year-over-year basis:

The LEI, in blue, show a definitive upturn in the last two months, while the coincident indicators, in yellow, show that we are currently still declining.

The confirming turn up of LEI in May has moved both the 3 and 6 month trend of the LEI to positive territory.  This is a Big Deal.  Here is a graph, showing that since WW2,  every time there has been a significant (~2%) turn up in the 3 month average of the LEI, a recovery (in the sense of +GDP growth) has started immediately.  On a 3 month basis, LEI are now up exactly 2%.

Another way of measuring is to look at a "diffusion index" of the LEI (as in, how many of the 10 are positive, and how many are negative).  Every time 9 of the 10 indicators have been positive as measured over 6 months, a recovery has begun.  

With the last two months, already 5 of 10 of the indicators have moved into the positive category.  Another couple of months of positive LEI readings will meet the 9 in 10 standard.

{N.B.  Both of the above graphs are slightly dated and so don't show the recent upturn -- NDD}

The improvement has been such that the Economic Cycle Research Institute reported this past week that  

A gauge of future U.S. economic growth rose, and its yearly growth rate turned positive, raising hopes that the end of the recession is in sight, .... [EFRI's] Weekly Leading Index rose to a 37-week high of 117.6 for the week ending June 19, from a downwardly revised 117.0 the previous week.

The index's annualized growth rate spiked to a 97-week high of 2.1 percent from minus 0.6 percent a week ago.

It was ECRI's highest yearly growth reading since the week ended August 10, 2007, when it stood at 3.4 percent.

"Following a 28-week upturn, WLI growth has broken into positive territory for the first time in over 22 months -- an affirmation that an end to the recession is at hand," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI

The ECRI weekly leading index is over 100 years old -- meaning its data covers the Great Depression.  Whenever the weekly leading index and the long leading index are both improving, over that entire history, an improvement in GDP has always followed shortly.

I remain concerned about working hours, which will be reported Thursday July 2.  If they stabilize or improve, that will be enough for me to go on record predicting that the Recession will have bottomed out by Labor Day, give or take 2 months.

OK, back to Bonddad ...
-------

Then there was the news from the Census Bureau regarding durable goods:

New orders for manufactured durable goods in May increased $2.8 billion or 1.8 percent to $163.9 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This was the third increase in the last four months and followed a 1.8 percent April increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 1.1 percent. Excluding defense, new orders also increased 1.4 percent.

This jibes with the news from several Federal Reserve districts regarding manufacturing.  The New York Index has rebounded:

The general business conditions index fell several points from last month’s level, dropping to (-9.4), but remained well above the string of deeply negative readings observed in the October-March period. This month, 28 percent of respondents reported that conditions had improved, compared with 23 percent last month, while 38 percent of respondents reported that conditions had worsened, up from 28 percent. After rising above zero last month, the shipments index retreated to )-4.8). The unfilled orders index, at (-10.3), was little changed. The delivery time index rose a few points to (-10.3), and the inventories index fell to -25.3.

As has the Philadelphia Index:

Declines in the region's manufacturing sector were much less in evidence in June, according to results for this month's Business Outlook Survey. Indexes for general activity, new orders, and shipments showed notable improvement, suggesting recent declines have lessened dramatically. Indicative of ongoing weakness, however, firms reported sustained declines in employment and work hours this month. Most of the survey's broad indicators of future activity showed continued improvement, suggesting that the region's manufacturing executives are becoming more optimistic that a recovery in business will occur over the next six months.

And credit spreads have dropped to low levels, indicating the problems associated with the credit markets are easing:

And the ISM manufacturing index is clearly rebounding:

Now -- a word about employment.  The unemployment rate is a lagging indicator.  This means it drops after GDP starts to increase.  Here is a graph from the St. Louis Federal Reserve that shows the relationship.

This graph plots the year over year percentage change in GDP with the unemployment rate.  Notice that in each of the last three expansions the year over year percentage change in GDP started to increase before the unemployment rate went down. In other words, we have to have an increasing year over year percentage change in GDP before we can even think about talking about an improving unemployment picture.  Put another way, using the unemployment rate before looking at the percentage change in GDP is putting the cart before the economic horse.

And speaking of employment, notice the the 4-week moving average of initial unemployment claims continues to drop:

The continuing improvement in this picture is incredibly important.  As I have previously pointed out, the 4-week moving average of initial unemployment claims tops out right at or before the end of a recession:

Now -- let me add some caveats.

1.) I am NOT saying "isn't it wonderful that people are unemployed at high rates".  I am also NOT SAYING "we shouldn't care about people who are unemployed."  I am saying that the signs are there in more then a cursory fashion that the economy is bottoming and we will start to see positive GDP growth soon.

2.) Positive GDP growth is a prerequisite to employment growth. For those of you who disagree, please show me a time when a country had negative GDP growth and positive employment growth.  

3.) Recovery comes in stages.  There is no way we are going to wake up tomorrow and say "gee, isn't it wonderful having 4% GDP growth!"  It is going to take considerable time for the economy to heal.  A good analogy is it is impossible to turn around a battleship on a moments notice.  

4.) However, the cumulative total of all the indicators says the economy is clearly bottoming.  Combine that with a massive fiscal and monetary stimulus and the possibility of positive GDP growth is incredibly high.

5.) I have repeatedly stated I do not think the recovery will be robust.  In fact, I think we'll be stuck in a 1%-2% growth rate with high unemployment for at least another year and a half or longer.  

Originally posted to bonddad on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 09:08 AM PDT.

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    by bonddad on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 09:08:13 AM PDT

    •  Won't this look interesting (26+ / 0-)

      if it ends up sitting next to Bob Swern's diary?

      Of course, you and he are both right about unemployment. What I'm wondering is what the various Obama measures, such as the stimulus package and the new energy bill, will do to mitigate this problem. Has anyone done any calculations on that?

      Nobody cares that you made the reclist for the 1st, 3rd or 45th time. Please make a note of it.

      by MeMeMeMeMe on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 09:22:02 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Thank you... (6+ / 0-)

      I definitely need real and relevant, as opposed to the fluff and fiction of so much 'reporting'.

      -6.38, -6.21: Lamented and assured to the lights and towns below, Faster than the speed of sound, Faster than we thought we'd go, Beneath the sound of hope...

      by Vayle on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 09:22:27 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Thanks for the optimism (10+ / 0-)

      We just need to keep reminding people that the troubles can all be traced back to the Bushian economic policies in place from 2001 through January of 2009.

      Because we know if the economy is recovering slowly a year from now, Republicans will be blaming every bit of bad news on Obama & the Democrats and will have conveniently forgotten how bad things were in 2008.

      "I'm not a member of an organized political party - I'm a Democrat." Will Rogers

      by newjeffct on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 09:24:34 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Outstanding Summary of Economic Indicators (11+ / 0-)

      I have been following your posts here and on your own site for over a year.  I think this is one of your best overall summaries of the economic situation.  Let's hope that GDP turns around soon so that the unemployment picture will start to improve sooner rather than later.

      •  for every economic indicator... (9+ / 0-)

        there is an equal and opposite indicator.  For every stat that shows improvement (if only a decline in the rate of the rate of the rate of things getting worse), there are 100 that show things are getting worse.  And vice versa.  These stats have no objective meaning, they can be tailored to show whatever you want them to show, and they can be interpreted in any number of ways - especially when combined or interpreted in the light of other meaningless stats.  

        When the vast majority of Americans are earning salaries/paychecks that allow them to not only buy what they need, but to have extra money left over to save and spend on things that they don't need, then the economy will be "good" again.  

        •  Show me some negative leading indicators then.n/t (6+ / 0-)

          "When the going gets tough, the tough get 'too big to fail'."

          by New Deal democrat on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 11:20:39 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  that's not the point (7+ / 0-)

            the news item is "leading indicators rise" (for second month).  "Leading indicators" are a made up term (it sounds positive though, doesn't it?).  So when the news item is "leading indicators rise" you ask me to show a news story where leading indicators fall... that totally misses the point and I concede if the made-up arbitrary number is +1.8% then I won't be able to find a place that says that arbitrary made-up number is something less.

            Unemployment reached a 25-year high last month.  That's a pretty negative "indicator" I would think.  But even unemployment numbers are malleable, depending on how you count the people who are "unemployed" (however that is defined... people without work for X (30, 90, 120) days or more, people without work at the present second, whatever).

            •  Actually no. (10+ / 0-)

              There is a stock set of "leading indicators" that economists have used with some consistency for decades. The reason you don't see news stories claiming leading indicators are down is because they're not going down.

              Unemployment is still rising but it's not a leading indicator. It is specifically defined as a trailing indicator because companies are slow to start hiring when a recession ends.

              As for the malleability of unemployment, you're doing a sort of hand-waving "don't confused me with the facts" sort of thing. We're talking about a specific defined measure of unemployment, the one called U3. U6 is worse because it's more inclusive, but it's always worse than U3. Go ahead and compare U6 past to present also if you like.

              The point is that for all their faults, economists do have a more or less reliable set of statistics to work with. The measurements are well-defined and consistently named.

              •  heh (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                pletzs, wsexson

                I conceded that

                when the news item is "leading indicators rise" you ask me to show a news story where leading indicators fall... that totally misses the point and I concede if the made-up arbitrary number is +1.8% then I won't be able to find a place that says that arbitrary made-up number is something less.

                Like I said, and like you concede, "leading indicators" is a "stock set" of various items that politicians and economists use.  They are absolutely arbitrary and they change them around when convenient.  Like the components of the consumer price index (which is also arbitrary and meaningless.  My entire point is that these numbers are meaningless.  I can create an economic variable based on the price of red cars, party balloons, bras, and blenders, but it's arbitrary and completely meaningless.  If the average price of those things goes up 2.9% over 2 months, so what?  Oh but they call those "leading indicators" so they must be important and highly illustrative of the status of the economy?  

                Please.

                And yes, unemployment is still rising.  But since it's not called a "leading indicator" it doesn't matter.  Leading indicator sounds really important.  You need to be more cynical my friend.  I hope you don't really think supporting the Patriot Act makes you a patriot, or that "No Child Left Behind" didn't leave any children behind.

                My point is that for ever "leading indicator" or "consumer price index" value that looks good, I can show you something (25 year high unemployment) that looks bad.  To rattle off a list of a few arbitrary "good numbers" (which might only be good because the components were changed) and say things are getting better is highly naive.  

                And I concede that the unemployment numbers themselves are just as arbitrary and meaningless.  A country could have a great economy with 0% employment - a small island nation with incredibly rich oil reserves that takes in billions of dollars a year in oil revenue and splits it between the gov't and the citizens - nobody has to work and everyone orders stuff off the internet.  Plus, like I said, you can increase or shrink the "unemployment rate" based on how you count who is "unemployed" ... if you have to be unemployed for X days to count, then the greater X is the less the unemployment rate is.

                •  The point of the leading indicators... (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  Winnie, New Deal democrat

                  is they improve before other conditions improve.  They are indicating a light at the end of the tunnel.  Yes, things will continue to get worse in terms of unemployment, but if we didn't start to see glimmers of hope right now, that would mean recovery was even further down the road.  I really don't understand what you are trying to argue.  

                  Don't like XOM and OPEC? What have YOU done to reduce your oil consumption? Hot air does NOT constitute a renewable resource!

                  by Asak on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 05:02:53 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  I'm trying to argue (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    pletzs, greeseyparrot

                    that they're just made up statistics, utterly meaningless - as good of an indicator of how many people are starving as the DOW (though people do think that actually means something objective about the economy, too).

                    The economy is still in a depression, it's not getting better, it will only get worse, and it will lead to the inevitable collapse of the US government.  

                    •  Leading indicators means they come first (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      New Deal democrat

                      Leading indicators go up before the economy recovers (but they indicate or predict that things will start getting better). Lagging indicators go up after the economy recovers (and thus they're pretty useless at predicting the future).

                      For example, building permits are a leading indicator. It means there are people (all over the country) planning to build new houses or commercial buildings or porches or whatever.

                      After the construction companies get the building permits (maybe a few weeks later, maybe a few months later), they'll start hiring carpenters to build the houses (etc.). Employment is a lagging indicator.

                      Sure, understanding today's complex world of the future is a little like having bees live in your head. But, there they are.

                      by Dbug on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 10:52:33 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                    •  How do you judge which stats are made up (2+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      New Deal democrat, dmh44

                      and which are definitive, like your quote of the unemployment figures - which come from the same sources as the stats that don't fit your narrative, and therefore you declare are "just made up"?

                      How can you tell the difference?

                      One day posterity will remember, this strange era, these strange times, when ordinary common honesty was called courage. -- Yevgeny Yevtushenko

                      by RandomActsOfReason on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 10:57:50 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  are you serious? (0+ / 0-)

                        Did you not see where I said the following right up there?  I mean, I just said these exact words:

                        And I concede that the unemployment numbers themselves are just as arbitrary and meaningless.  A country could have a great economy with 0% employment - a small island nation with incredibly rich oil reserves that takes in billions of dollars a year in oil revenue and splits it between the gov't and the citizens - nobody has to work and everyone orders stuff off the internet.  Plus, like I said, you can increase or shrink the "unemployment rate" based on how you count who is "unemployed" ... if you have to be unemployed for X days to count, then the greater X is the less the unemployment rate is.

                        You know, I try really hard to prevent accusations of hypocrisy, yet if you're not going to even read what I say and imply that I'm being hypocritical... well that's just bullshit.

                        How can you tell the difference?

                        You can't - all stats are meaningless.  Never moreso than when they're intended to either predict or describe the economy.  Hell, people still can't agree on what caused the great depression.

                        •  Nonetheless, you base your argument (0+ / 0-)

                          against statistics showing a bottoming out, on statistics showing high unemployment.

                          If you are going to be totally honest, your argument is based on "arbitrary and meaningless" assertions.

                          Then why are you so sure of your position?

                          Seems pretty clear to me you are essentially making a faith-based argument, and trying to cover it up with "facts" - while simultaneously dismissing other "facts" that contradict your beliefs.

                          I wonder how you suggest we carry on an informed conversation about the economy if "all stats are meaningless".

                          And, I wonder if you carry this argument forward to all your discussions here. Do you dismiss statistics about people without health insurance as "arbitrary and meaningless? as well? Or do you selectively apply that argument only when the facts undermine your beliefs?

                          One day posterity will remember, this strange era, these strange times, when ordinary common honesty was called courage. -- Yevgeny Yevtushenko

                          by RandomActsOfReason on Sun Jun 28, 2009 at 02:07:03 PM PDT

                          [ Parent ]

                •  But you're just making stuff up... (3+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  New Deal democrat, dmh44, annominous

                  ...by claiming the economists are making numbers up.

                  It's not true that the Leading Indicators change all the time. They don't.

                  It's not true that they "increase or shrink the 'unemployment rate' based on how you count who is 'unemployed.'" There are different, existing, consistent measures of unemployment that use different definitions. U3 hasn't always been U3, but it's been U3 for more than a few decades.

                  You're asserting things that you just made up. Why do you want the discussion to be about fantasy instead of facts?

                  •  not so (0+ / 0-)

                    different people have different leading indicators, but my point is that like the CPI, they are simply randomly chosen, completely arbitrary data points.  These just happen to have been given a really good name that actually states (far moreso than "consumer price index" which is just generic and kinda meaningless) that it "indicates" something.  It's a "leading indicator" after all.

                    How long we've stuck with a particular definition is beside the point.  The point is they are defined at the outset.  Here, I've created a new statistic, supported by some economists (trust me like you trust them) called the "American Economic Progress and Growth Indicator" (the AEPGI).  The AEPGI has gone down 4.1% over the last 3 months.

                    Take that.  

                    I calculate the AEPGI based on a complex formula using the following arbitrary variables:  sales of Nintendo Wii games, sales of mentholated lip balm, sales of sugar-free gum, sales of yellow highlighters, and sales of prepaid US Mail postage stamps.  During winter months, sales of popcorn is included, and during summer months, sales of USB drives is included.

                    Since the American Economic Progress and Growth indicator has gone down over 4% over the previous 3 months, I say things are looking down.  And I'm brilliant for showing you this statistic.  Yay for me.

                    And yes, I'm sure you can find an economist who disagrees with the AEPGI, but economists don't agree on anything.  And it has to be a direct indicator of American economic progress and growth, because that's what it's friggin' called!  It indicates the progress and grown (or lack thereof) of the American economy.  Because it says so.

                    •  Silly. (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      annominous

                      You're shifting goalposts. Go ahead and quibble all you want about the relevance and significance of GDP or LEI or U3 or U6. It's reasonable to question why this or that statistic should matter. I'm not accusing you of anything bad there.

                      What's not reasonable is your claim that these numbers are made up, that their definitions change all the time, that they don't mean anything at all.

                      You're trying to muddy the waters by conflating those two claims, and they are simply not the same thing. One is an opinion that's debateable, the other is just counter to fact.

                      If your point is that LEI isn't a useful measure, fine. If your point is that LEI is a fake number, I'm calling balderdash.

                      But you're pulling a Fox-style scam by using your criticism of LEI's usefulness to question the stat's very existence. It's a dishonest debating tactic.

                      •  okay (0+ / 0-)

                        by "fake" I simply mean it's entirely arbitrary.  Like my AEPGI.  I don't mean they don't do the work to collect the data and find the number.  If they say the LEI rose 1.4% last month, I'm sure they did the math.
                        I just think their math is irrelvant.  

                        •  Fair enough (0+ / 0-)

                          Although.

                          The "leading economic indicators" have been pretty consistent in "leading" the GNP figure over a few decades. Likewise the "trailing" indicators are consistently "trailing."

                          If your argument is with the use of GNP as the be-all and end-all indicator of economic goodness, we are on the same page.

                          •  i don't think (0+ / 0-)

                            there have been enough large depressions to judge the consistency of any economic variable.  When everything is going well, and we're experiencing regular ups and downs of the market, then on average, more often than not, I'd agree the indicators you mention correlate with the market.

                            But the situation we're in, like every other great depression, is sui generis and that makes all the standard numbers/stats/variables more worthless than they usually are.

                          •  I think then... (0+ / 0-)

                            ...you go with whatever you've got that seems closest to the current situation, as imperfect as it is.

            •  If all stats are made up, then how do you know (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              New Deal democrat

              Unemployment reached a 25-year high last month.

              What is not the case is that all stats are made up.

              What is the case is that you choose to ignore any stats that do not confirm your bias.

              Since a recovery now does not fit your ideological narrative, there can be no recovery now.

              Sorta like the climate change denialist logic.

              One day posterity will remember, this strange era, these strange times, when ordinary common honesty was called courage. -- Yevgeny Yevtushenko

              by RandomActsOfReason on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 10:56:31 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  I agree. NOT another garden variety recession (0+ / 0-)

              My biggest problem with saying "History shows us that ..." is that this is NOT another garden variety recession. I agree this may be a pause, but the next direction is by no means assured.

              "People are getting angry, DANGEROUSLY ANGRY." Public reaction to indifference in Congress, 1930 Great Depression.

              by CitizenOfEarth on Sun Jun 28, 2009 at 09:01:46 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

        •  How the hell are you going to get there? (4+ / 0-)

          I really don't understand comments like this.  Do you seriously believe we are going to go straight from a bad situation to a great one?  That is not how things work.  You get incremental improvement.  We'd damn well better hope that things are starting to bottom out, because if not we're never going to realize your dream of people being able to spend money on things they don't need.  Instead we see a depression, and possibly the collapse of the entire country.  

          Don't like XOM and OPEC? What have YOU done to reduce your oil consumption? Hot air does NOT constitute a renewable resource!

          by Asak on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 05:00:26 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Well, I certainly hope your title (25+ / 0-)

      was in earnest and not snarky.

      Because I cannot make heads not tails of graphs or even the text that explains the graphs. Just dumb that way, so I'll take your title at its face value (so to speak) and hope you're right.

      Because my husband hasn't worked in months and my income barely covers rent and we're up to our hairlines in debt and come August, unemployment runs out and while ordinarily we might get an extension, we live in California, which is due to go bankrupt in, oh, a week or two. So we just don't know what the heck is going to happen.

      So, bring on that recovery. I fear it comes to late for millions of us, but maybe President Obama and his brain trust will pull a giant rabbit out of a giant hat and save us all.

      Here's hoping.

      •  Although We (7+ / 0-)

        are not in CA, we are in very much the same position.

        I feel ya respondeat superior.

        Peace

        "Our long national nightmare is over. The great undoing has begun." SusanG

        by SherriG on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 11:12:43 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Know that you are not alone (16+ / 0-)

        I'm here in the Bay Area (Silicon Valley more precisely) and the job situation for high tech is terrible.  I had a long history of 6 figure jobs but now I can't find a job opening to even apply for.  So much of high tech has moved to India and China.  There are shell high tech companies still around, but that is mostly executive management with most engineering outsourced.  I'm surviving on unemployment and hope that something will happen that will change the picture here soon.  

        "War is Peace, Freedom is Slavery, Ignorance is Strength", George Orwell, "1984" -7.63 -5.95

        by dangoch on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 11:13:08 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  seems to vary by sector (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          mrclean, Winnie, ladybug53, dkosdan

          Silicon Valley freelancers seem to be reporting much higher demand than usual, especially in webdev. (I'm personally a grad student, so hearing most things second-hand.)

          "See a world of tanks, ruled by a world of banks." —Sol Invictus

          by Delirium on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 12:22:48 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  This can't be. Because Microsoft (0+ / 0-)

          and other large techs are petitioning for increased H1Bs saying they can't find skilled US workers.

          Disclosure: I was just laid off from a large tech as well. They laid off 15,000 this year and offshored the jobs. Good luck to you.

          "People are getting angry, DANGEROUSLY ANGRY." Public reaction to indifference in Congress, 1930 Great Depression.

          by CitizenOfEarth on Sun Jun 28, 2009 at 09:08:27 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Indicators don't consider California effect (7+ / 0-)

        California's budget mess may well push the state into a depression, says a new UCSB study.  And California's economic troubles will likely spread to the rest of the country (see, e.g., dot com bubble causing '91-92 recession; subprime crisis causing 2007-09 recession).

        Healthy Minds & Bodies, discussing outdoor adventures Tuesdays 5 PM PDT

        by RLMiller on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 12:19:19 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I agree absolutely. (9+ / 0-)

          The LA Times says today that Gov. Schwartzenegger is now threatening to extend the 2 day "furlough" (*cough*paycut*cough*) to three days for state employees.  The Republican minority is in control of our legislature because fiscal issues demand a 2/3 majority vote.  

          They've just turned down a raise in the vehicle licensing fees, the very issue Gov. S proudly rode into office on (he slashed licensing fees, which Gray Davis, the previous gov, has raised).  They also said no to a new tax on homeowners' insurance to pay for emergency response systems.  

          This insane Republican minority balks at every reasonable expenditure to increase state revenues.  

          Since California accounts for 8% of the national GDP, the imminent default of the state could have a profound ripple effect nationally.  

          Personally, I'm likely to see a 12% cut in my salary ("furlough," you know) as a professor in the California State University system.  I'm tenured, Full Professor, have taught for 35 years, 22 of which have been in the CSU, and I still make a FIVE figure salary, which will be cut.  At the same time, my students will see steep increases in their tuition.  The state rode the bubble blindly, just like Wall Street, and, just like Wall Street, it is pushing the pain down to Main Street.  

          •  Furlough is not the same as pay cut (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            ladybug53, dkosdan

            Yes, it sucks that you will be losing pay, but you'll also have more time off.  At least you can look at the bright side there.  

            Also, it sucks that tuition is going up, but if you compare the tuition costs at CA state colleges to those in many other states you will see that CA college tuition is relatively low.  

            Don't like XOM and OPEC? What have YOU done to reduce your oil consumption? Hot air does NOT constitute a renewable resource!

            by Asak on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 05:05:26 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Well, (7+ / 0-)

              The university is expecting faculty to take "furlough" on days when we're not teaching.  Usually when we're not in the classroom, we're grading papers or preparing lecture or writing articles for conferences in our field.  But the university doesn't give a damn about that because the university will still appear to be functioning smoothly.  This is how our Chancellor, Charles Reed, will be able to show Arnie what an administrative "genius" he is.  

              British Airways asked its 40,000 employees to work voluntarily some days without pay.  How many will do it?  And who wants to fly with a pilot who has?  But university professors?  Meh.  We are only considered "dangerous" when we're actually teaching our students how to think.  

              Re:  tuition:  yes, it's relatively low, but consider the enormous cost of living in this state.  Also, we serve 400K plus students, many of whom are the first in their families to go to college.  Just per head, we train many more potential California workers (and, yes, consumers) and the bulk of the teachers in K-14.  If we let that constituency down, the ripple effect on the state will be catastrophic.  As it is, we're currently near the bottom of the list for spending per student, when compared to all the rest of the 50 states.  And yet California gets back something like only .80 cents for every federal tax dollar extracted from here.  (places like Montana get something on the order of $1.20 per dollar they generate -- can't remember the exact figure).  

              •  Well, that sucks (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Kentucky DeanDemocrat, dkosdan

                If they just are expecting you to take "days off" that you basically have to just fit into your spare time then that is a raw deal.  

                California has a lot of problems, I don't deny it.  I am really disappointed by how things are going here, but I just don't see any solutions until we can change it so that we can pass a budget without it being held up by a tiny minority in the legislature.  

                We do get a raw deal with getting back so little of our Federal tax dollars as well.  We get stuck paying higher state taxes and with poor services while we subsidize the low rates in places like Montana.  It really isn't fair.  

                Don't like XOM and OPEC? What have YOU done to reduce your oil consumption? Hot air does NOT constitute a renewable resource!

                by Asak on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 05:42:12 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

    •  You left out one chart... (22+ / 0-)

      ...which is the national debt over time. Of course the economy is "improving" when steps have been taken to monetize existing debt.

      Whether we eke out a little positive GDP this year or next year is irrelevant to me. We're in a long-term negative secular trend. Until we see good employmeny numbers with associated government and trade surpluses (not "predicted" surpluses, but actual surpluses), I can't see how we're going to have any kind of sustainable recovery.

      •  And the Fed rate is at virtual 0% (0+ / 0-)

        it cannot stay there forever.  Even in 1930 at the start of the Great Depression, Fed rate was about 6%, so FDR had real room to move it to make a difference.

        "People are getting angry, DANGEROUSLY ANGRY." Public reaction to indifference in Congress, 1930 Great Depression.

        by CitizenOfEarth on Sun Jun 28, 2009 at 09:16:47 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  You make a good case for cautious optimism. (9+ / 0-)

      Thanks, bonddad.

      Gov. Mark Sanford: Obama's stimulus package made me do it!

      by lompe on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 09:49:21 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I will be optimistic when someone can assure me (10+ / 0-)

        that those who now have jobs will keep them and those that do not will find them...numerical indicators are nice but hard jobs are better as an 'indicator' that a recovery is on the horizon but, alas, our phone is still ringing off the hook with people looking for work and we dont have any to offer them :(

        "in all matters of opinion our adversaries are insane." mark twain

        by KnotIookin on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 09:54:47 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  There is no basis for even cautious optimism (30+ / 0-)

        None. That doesn't make me a doomer, that makes me a realist. This diary has not answered the key question, the ONLY question, which is:

        Where and when will sustained job and wage growth come from?

        I'm not part of a redneck agenda - Green Day

        by eugene on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 10:14:24 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I can figure out (18+ / 0-)

          Where and when will sustained job and wage growth come from?

          I can figure out how you get one or the other, but not both.  My guess is that the policy path chosen will be that of job growth together with continuing downward pressure on wages, making the US more "competitive" in the global "cheap labor economics" marketplace.  And we'll all be told to be glad we even have jobs at all.

          "When the government becomes a lawbreaker, it invites every man to become a law unto himself." ~ Justice Brandeis

          by ActivistGuy on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 10:22:35 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I fear you are correct (13+ / 0-)

            Which is why I put "wage growth" there as well, since we need to not accept the easy way out of low-wage jobs. Unfortunately I suspect that is exactly what we'll get.

            I'm not part of a redneck agenda - Green Day

            by eugene on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 10:35:42 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  Ultimately that doesn't work though (6+ / 0-)

            The only way our low wage "competitive" job force situation worked was with the very liberal use of consumer credit.  That's what allowed us to be a consumer in the world marketplace.  I don't see that happening again any time soon.  The only way for manufacturing nations to sell their trinkets to Americans will be if Americans can actually afford to buy them.  If our wages are in the toilet then I don't see how we pull that off.  I think the era of filling in the gaps with credit cards has ended, at least for now.  

            I really think our best hope is to revive our manufacturing base, maybe through development and manufacture of "green" energy technology.  We'd better get serious about that now though.  We need to really invest some public dollars into research and development so that our businesses can then take those advancements and turn them into stuff we can make and sell around the world.

            "You must be the change you wish to see in the world." -Gandhi

            by Triscula on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 02:19:41 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  Isn't it the case that employment numbers (9+ / 0-)

          and job growth are always the last thing to improve after a recession?

          This is an important question...especially considering my husband is out of work and hasn't been able to find a job - for WAY too long - he gets offers, and then funding disappears. 2 of my 4 sisters are without jobs and they aren't getting anything back from their applications or job hunting attempts. Not so much as a phone call.

          But I think it's important to note that without the stimulus and all the efforts to improve the economy, things could be a LOT worse - one more of my sisters would be out of work if it wasn't for the stimulus package and extra education funding. That's tangible, I think. That's a job saved.

          And I do think job growth in some industries is starting to come about - or will in the next few months. Here in Iowa City they just got stimulus funds to build 40 green homes. Jobs will come out of that - and there were forgivable loans offered to 40 families (one of my friends was the 40th) - so people can afford to buy those homes and not get screwed by creditors.

          I'm not entirely focused on the doom right now because I do see positive things happening - and starting to get a bit more frequent - and many of those things are a direct result of the stimulus.

          •  Possibly (9+ / 0-)

            I'd be curious how far back that actually goes. I don't know that comparing this recession to the last 3 will get us that far. Further, I also think that the definition of a recession ought to be shifted to focus on employment.

            Here in California the effect of the stimulus has been neutralized by Arnold's desire to destroy government as we know it and impose a Hooverite solution to the state's financial crisis. It's true that things would be much worse without the federal stimulus, and yet that stimulus has proved to be insufficient to prevent a severe recession (which will be experienced as an outright Depression in some parts of the country).

            It's not that I focus on the doom - I want to see bright light as much as anyone, but whenever I look closely at the state of the economy, I'm just not seeing it, not yet.

            I'm not part of a redneck agenda - Green Day

            by eugene on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 12:25:26 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  exactly (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          peglyn

          And as i've said in other posts, stats like these are meaningless and unless there is some incredible world-changing invention that spurs the creation of entirely new industries (like the internet did - but it would have to be bigger than the internet), we're doomed.  I see zero chance of recovering from this depression, and I think the federal gov't will collapse within the next 2 years.  We'll just be left with the 50 states, though like California some of them will be bankrupt too.  The dollar will become completely worthless after extreme hyperinflation ($10,000 = 1 Euro), the US government won't be able to get any credit, won't be able to pay its social and debt obligations, and that will be the end.  We've already crossed the point of no return.

          But maybe if some amazing, world-changing invention came along... something on the level of the internal combustion engine, computer, or electricity... maybe things could be salvaged.

          But I don't see that happening.

          •  Huh? (5+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            PhilW, dmh44, dkosdan, Argyrios, FistJab

            I see zero chance of recovering from this depression...

            We haven't reached 10% GDP contraction yet. We're not even on that trajectory anymore.

            The dollar will become completely worthless after extreme hyperinflation ($10,000 = 1 Euro), the US government won't be able to get any credit, won't be able to pay its social and debt obligations, and that will be the end.

            Hyperinflation necessarily means that the government will be able to pay off its debts rather easily....

            "Do What Thou Wilt" isn't in the platform of either party; it's just The Law.
            Finding God in a Dog

            by maxomai on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 11:44:35 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  if the currency is near worthless... (0+ / 0-)

              then how does that mean the government will be able to pay off its debts rather easily?

              •  the debt is all priced in dollars (7+ / 0-)

                If dollars become nearly worthless relative to other assets, the entire U.S. debt could be paid off with a small amount of other assets, like selling some buildings or gold.

                "See a world of tanks, ruled by a world of banks." —Sol Invictus

                by Delirium on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 12:25:05 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  that's a key difference between the current (0+ / 0-)

                  situation and that faced by Germany after world war 1... I can see why the world might want to change that going forward...

                  the debt is all priced in dollars
                  If dollars become nearly worthless relative to other assets, the entire U.S. debt could be paid off with a small amount of other assets, like selling some buildings or gold.

                  This is in part why energy independence is so important. If we had the ability to produce our own energy without significant outside inputs we'd have the ability to survive no matter how the rest of the world views our dollar. (Of course we can't accomplish that with oil as we don't have enough of it.... "energy independence" seems to have become right wing code for "drill for oil")

                  Regarding foreign debt...  I suspect we wind up paying it off in part by sharing  and implementing new technology in countries such as China which are in desperate need of new cleaner energy technology.

                  A key difference between Obama's stimulus and Bush spending...  Obama's stimulus will help us to produce things that have value, new technology, new railroads, new types of power plants etc. Thus, they are less likely to produce hyper-inflation. Think of it as a business borrowing money to build a building in which they will conduct business. The fact that the company will own the building after it is built makes it a worthwhile investment for the bank as it will allow the business over time to pay back the loan. The same is true with regards to our infrastructure investments, they will yield taxes in the future that will more than pay back the initial investment. Tax rates may have to be higher, especially for higher income people, but that's easily justified by noting that without government intervention the opportunity for profit wouldn't exist.

                  The key point is that government can invest multiple key areas simultaneously. For instance, the investment in electric cars and their purchase by town and city governments will spur a need for more electricity, the investment in a smart grid will make sure the electricity can reach where it is needed, the investment in new energy development will ensure we have a way to generate the needed energy. The key is that all of this has to happen at the same time, otherwise the car companies won't develop the cars (who will buy them, where will they get the electricity), the smart grid won't be developed (how do we know there will be demand or supply to transport!) etc. The commitment the government is showing will spur private sector development as well as they become convinced the transformation is real.

                •  not sure that's quite right (0+ / 0-)

                  First of all, not all of our debt is owed in dollars.  As for the debt that is owed in dollars, if the dollar were to become practically worthless, that would be a material change in the conditions of the contract and it could be argued that a different means of payment could be demanded.  Depends on what type of debt and what type of contract.  Some long-term contracts might already include a clause that adjusts for inflation over time to calculate repayment of debt.

                  Payment of treasury bills and stuff like that, especially to US citizens, would be paid in the worthless currency, but that would just further increase inflation and further devalue the dollar, and that assumes that the government still exists in the first place to be paying off debt.  

                  Most likely, we'll be selling off our aircraft carriers and other military assets.  Not sure how we could sell The Pentagon.  Maybe the head of China would want to buy the White House.  Either way, they're not going to do the valuation in hyperinflated US dollars.  It will be done in yen, pounds, Euros, whatever.

                  •  Or... (0+ / 0-)

                    ...we could sell off our gold reserves, of which we have roughly a metric fuckton. No need to sell off military assets (although they would probably end up mothballed).

                    "Do What Thou Wilt" isn't in the platform of either party; it's just The Law.
                    Finding God in a Dog

                    by maxomai on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 02:14:30 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Yeah.... (0+ / 0-)

                      assuming we still have a fuckton of gold (the fuckton is not metric by the way).  I am not a conspiracy nut, but it's interesting that they have not let anyone - not even a Senator - into Fort Knox since what, the late 70s?  I know we have gold in other places, too... but I have a feeling that we don't have as much as we used to.  But I'd hope and assume that we still have a fuckton or two.  But nowhere near enough fucktons of gold to pay off our national debt.  Not even close.

    •  Doom doesn't sell bonddad (7+ / 0-)

      Your happy talk does.  

      Bonddad pens a happy econ diary and it zooms to the top of the rec list.  I'm once again shocked!  Shocked!

      Hope your right, but think your wrong.

      But anyway please don't use the doom sells ditty because you know how to make it to the top of the rec list don't ya?

      I think you're writing to the crowd.  

      ...someday - the armies of bitterness will all be going the same way. And they'll all walk together, and there'll be a dead terror from it. The Grapes of Wrath

      by deepsouthdoug on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 10:11:41 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Nonsense title (19+ / 0-)

      And a nonsense concept.

      You need to find a different way to explain these stats. They do not indicate "recovery". That is totally flawed framing. What they indicate are that those things measured by what you have offered are "bottoming."

      You are particularly flawed in using past performance to predict future results. You are assuming that just because these indicators are less awful, and may actually be positive, that we will see a recovery soon, that employment growth can reasonably be expected to follow positive GDP growth (for example).

      This is all nonsense, and it is a consequence of your misleading and very unfortunate framing. Your stats don't predict anything. They give a picture of an economy that is no longer in free fall, but is entering an uncertain new period.

      If we really want honest, serious, and informed economic discussion, you would first jettison the unwarranted framing and instead talk about:

      1. How "the economy" is defined
      1. How "recovery" is defined
      1. What economic sectors may be driving the slow return to positive territory, and who would benefit from this
      1. What relationship, if any, these economic indicators have to the economic experience of most Americans
      1. Where employment growth, if any at all, might come from, and how long it might take us to get there.

      In the meantime, I beg you, just stop using misleading framing. If you want a serious discussion, let's have one. Drop the "recovery" crap because you clearly have no idea when it will come. It gets in the way and causes unnecessary problems.

      I'm not part of a redneck agenda - Green Day

      by eugene on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 10:13:11 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I share your concern about the word "Recovery" (16+ / 0-)

        Since there can be times of great economic misery that coincide with GDP growth (e.g., after April 1933).

        I'm all ears for something else to call that period.

        That being said, +GDP is a prerequisite to job growth, which along with wage growth I agree is the crucial indicator of economic health for the vast majority of people.

        "When the going gets tough, the tough get 'too big to fail'."

        by New Deal democrat on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 10:35:49 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  That item #4 is so important.... (10+ / 0-)

        ...that I'll repeat it and put it in a box:

        What relationship, if any, these economic indicators have to the economic experience of most Americans.

        Until our economic policy is focused on the economic experience of most Americans, any real recovery will be, at best, a matter of dumb luck.

        This liberal cliché about reconciliation of opposing forces is a load of crap. When one side gets enough power, then the other gets reconciled to it. - Alinsky

        by GreenSooner on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 10:58:42 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Yes, all true, and I might add . . . (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Aeolus, waf8868, dkosdan

        . . . that I'm particularly unconvinced by the several charts above purporting to augur imminent "recovery" on the basis of what the leading economic indicators have done in every downturn since World War II--when it should be obvious that we are not currently in a situation like any other since World War II.  Our manufacturing sector has been wrecked, decimated, sent abroad, as in no other case since World War II. Unemployment, however measeured, is at levels unseen since World War II.  Everyone agrees that the economy now requires massive government intervention or stimulus, as at no other time since World War II, and it is by no means clear yet (to put it mildly) that the stimulus has been effective, or even targeted to the right places.  The correct analogy to the present day would be something more like 1931, which was early in a long period of "bumping along on the bottom" for the economy.

        Obviously, the markets and the other indicators couldn't continue forever in the free-fall mode of the 2008-09 fall and winter--it wouldn't be mathematically possible--and we're a great deal closer to the bottom now than we were then (though I doubt that we're all the way there yet).  But predictions of some sort of V-shaped recovery are nothing more than wishful thinking in the absence of any indication of any pent-up consumer demand just waiting to be unleashed, or how that demand would be financed if it existed.

        "Americans are a wonderful people: They will always do the right thing--after exhausting every other possible alternative."--Winston Churchill

        by keikekaze on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 12:41:26 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  nice to see you back here! (7+ / 0-)

      thanks bonddad.

      Mr. President, I realize you've got a lot on your plate, but we've been starving at the back of the line. Please throw us a few crumbs like ending DADT & DO

      by tnichlsn on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 10:22:30 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Can we even call 1% growth a recovery (6+ / 0-)

      Since 1% growth is unlikely even to create enough jobs to employ new entrants to the labor market I cannot really consider it a recovery as much as stagnation.  Couple that with potential Chinese/Indian recoveries and we could likely again face the dreaded stagflation, except this time US wages will not get raised to keep up.

    •  Bonddad - a question on commercial real estate (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Gary Norton, Jimdotz, sydneyluv

      foreclosures for you.

      This is an area that I have not been able to find any reporting on.

      Here in SW WA state, pop. about 350,000, I've noticed increasing signs of commercial property "for lease or sale".

      I know that we still have about a year for the wave of alt loans and jumbo loans to clear out of the system (those non-fixed rate loans from the past three to five years with jumping rates).

      However, I haven't seen any news on the possible coming wave of commercial foreclosures.

      With unemployment lagging (as much as 18 months or longer in most pieces that I've read) behind rising GDP, isn't there a risk of commercial real estate foreclosures in the background, quietly fermenting?

      With businesses failing and commercial property going vacant, what happens if lagging employment leaves them vacant long enough to send the buildings into foreclosure?

      any thoughts on this seemingly forgotten sector of the real estate market?

    •  As for the other diary on the Rec list (4+ / 0-)

      The economy and unemployment are two different things. That may not be what people want to hear but it is reality. The economy can recover and begin to grow again without unemployment levels abating for some time and there are several indicators pointing to this being the case.

      "This projection indicates that the level of labor market slack would be higher by the end of 2009 than experienced at any other time in the post-World War II period, implying a longer and slower recovery path for the unemployment rate," they write. "This suggests that, more than in previous recessions, when the economy rebounds, employers will tap into their existing workforces rather than hire new workers. This could substantially slow the recovery of the outflow rate and put upward pressure on future unemployment rates."

      http://blogs.wsj.com/...

      It is most likely the economy is recovering albeit slowly. It is also highly likely unemployment will remain a problem for several months/years to come.

      Trust only movement. Life happens at the level of events, not of words. Trust movement. Alfred Adler

      by Hamsun on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 11:01:35 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Most Americans should recalibrate their dream (4+ / 0-)

      Gee let's see how US economy is looking into 2011 because pretty graphs and stats don't reveal the true story - Consumer spending going down - CRE getting crushed - RRE still tanking - Continuing Unemployment with U6 likely at 20% - The MSM and Obama admin doing best to the green shoots economy meme alive - As America's debt continues to explode http://www.usdebtclock.org/ - see defense as top 4 biggest budget item that should be pared as the idiots in US Congress ( House ) just passed $550b Pentagon budget ( nice to see US has its priorities straight )

      The US financial ponzi scheme is a racket.....Obama and his Wall St bought and paid for economic team have put all their chips on the Banking Oligarchs. It is conducted for the benefit of the very few at the expense of the very many ( the American taxpayers). Obama's objective with his Wall St bought and paid for economic team is to pump up great chunks of the Big Shitpile that's essentially worthless unless the peak real estate values of the bubble can be miraculously restored.

      Obamanomics is where

        1. The government champions funds

        2. Funds champion corporations

        3. Corporations champion markets and industries

        4. The people ( American taxpayers ) get the tab

      Charles Ponzi is laughing out loud at the greatest swindle in American history !

      Gorbachev warns that the world’s current economic model, created by "America’s elite," is "cracking" As it comes undone, many will suffer, he predicted. "Including the United States."

      In many respects he's right but most Americans today are too ignorant or complacent to demand REAL change ;)

      Perhaps when it's too late i.e. America becomes a much BIGGER version of Argentina or Mexico in the near future they will wake up and say what the f*ck happened !

    •  With the unemployment rate, you're trying to (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      taonow, waf8868, keikekaze, MiscastDice

      find good news from a second derivative.

      There is a lot of air under that curve and IF WE'RE LUCKY this will be a repeat of the 70's.  (Including the multiple dips.)  If we're not lucky this will be Japan for 15 years and multiple stimulus packages.

      And, what exactly will be the basis that drives increased GDP -- it isn't going to be consumer spending.  Our manufacturing base has been decimated.

      Nice that you think this is THE bottom.  I merely suspect that this is A bottom and there might be some others, say about one per year for awhile.

      Happy little moron, Lucky little man.
      I wish I was a moron, MY GOD, Perhaps I am!
      -Spike Milligan

      by polecat on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 11:38:15 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  great diary (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Winnie, PhilW, BoxNDox, bottlerocketheart

      and thank you new deal democrat.

      It always amazes me (and even astounds me) that you were praised for seeing the recession/depression coming and yet when you have postive news you get attacked.

      I really wish certain elements of DK would grow up and learn some consistency, not to mention how to disagree without being disagreeable.

      Anyways thank you again for the analysis.

      A song about life
      Why aren't you more like Gandhi? Why aren't I?

      by drache on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 11:55:54 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Eliot I choose high priced call girls (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      j b norton

      paid for with a credit card

    •  Rec'd & Tipped... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      notrouble

      For a reality based diary on the economy...and for all the D&Gers who will flame you...

      Obama - Change I still believe in

      by dvogel001 on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 01:30:43 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Please tell me what market sector will lead us... (3+ / 0-)

      upward, because I don't see one that will.

      The economy may stop collapsing -- maybe -- and so "growth" may go to zero and occasionally wiggle above zero, but genuine "growth"? I don't see how.

      The economics of health care is easy. It's only the politics that are hard.
      -- Paul Krugman, Princeton NJ, 6/18/2009

      by Jimdotz on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 01:33:39 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Recovery is on the Horizon (4+ / 0-)

      in terms of economic stability and growth in GDP, as is evidenced in our diary.  What is hard to compute for many reading this diary is that the economic recovery of 2009-10 will not spell a return to the live-high-beyond-reason economy of the last 20 years.

      Folks will need to time to wrap their heads around the new normal that doesn't allow them to drive away in cars they can't really afford, houses they don't earn enough to live in, and vacation trips they kept perpetually indebted to on credit cards.

      "Give me but one firm spot to stand, and I will move the earth." -- Archimedes

      by Limelite on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 01:47:09 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  asdf (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      New Deal democrat

      Maybe you're right, maybe you're wrong. I have no idea.

      But I will say that you've generally been patient with explaining the situation to everyone, and you've been as calm and rational as anyone could be given some of the feedback that you've gotten over the course of your diaries that are somewhat positive on the economy.

      "There is a vast difference between applying pressure and taking bits of evidence and extrapolating to wild conclusions and crazy rhetoric from them."-MT

      by Newsie8200 on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 04:26:41 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I hope you are right (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Kentucky DeanDemocrat

      (although I have to admit seeing a lot of charts makes my eyes glaze over and I tend to go by things I see around me). I am optimstic by nature and want to believe that we will get ourselves out of this morass, although I believe it will take some major reconfiguring of what we value, how we treat people and how work is rewarded. And it's hard to be optimistic today when I attended the funeral of a bright, talented, passionate person in his early 50s with his gifts and skills and experience so devalued by the marketplace that he apparently felt that there was no place in the world for him ever again after a year and a half of unemployment. It's easy to say "Suicide is never the answer" — I heard it today so many times I could scream, So what are the answers then?

      We may heal slowly but I weep for the mountain of human collateral. Until we start to properly value our greatest resource — our people — I fear we're going to heal very VERY slowly.

      Rob Portman: He sent your job to China.

      by anastasia p on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 05:31:45 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Thank you - very encouraging (0+ / 0-)

      Let's hope the CA budget woes don't drag down the recovery.  

      i thank you god for most this amazing day... e.e. cummings

      by dlcox1958 on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 10:51:55 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Thank you, bonddad. I understand that (64+ / 0-)

    employment is a lagging indicator, but I am worried that many of the jobs that were lost during the recession are not coming back. Many of the construction jobs were generated by the housing bubble, and many of the manufacturing jobs have been off-shored. We will need to develop new industries if we are going to put people back to work.

  •  Mortgage market still in deep freeze (10+ / 0-)

    Given that the current economic crisis is in large part based in the housing/mortgage industry, it's worth noting that the mortgage market "comeback" stalled out in mid-May and still shows no signs of revival.

    "When the government becomes a lawbreaker, it invites every man to become a law unto himself." ~ Justice Brandeis

    by ActivistGuy on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 09:13:39 AM PDT

    •  The mortgage industry is not going to (26+ / 0-)

      return to the levels it was when they were making the zero-down loans.  But it HAS returned to the levels they used to be at, which is appropriate.  People should have to put some money down, and verify their income.  That necessarily is going to put some sort of cap on how many people are qualified to buy a house.  IMO that's a good thing.

      Save the parrots: Drink shade-grown coffee!

      by oscarsmom on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 09:25:38 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  So? (7+ / 0-)

      Sorry to burst people's bubbles (pun not intended), but we're not going back to the Wild West housing market anytime soon.

      The fact that housing hasn't recovered to the pre-crash level of psychosis is both predictable and good.  People are going to have to get used to the idea that lying about their income levels and taking zero-down and teaser-rate mortgages ain't gonna drive the prices back up.

      If you bought in the neighborhood of 2002 to 2006 and didn't get out -- well, sorry, but you're going to lose your shit, and rightly so.

      "Words ought to be a little wild for they are the assault of thought on the unthinking." - John Maynard Keynes

      by Drew J Jones on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 10:11:16 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I'm not speaking as a homeowner (8+ / 0-)

        looking to retain price.  I work in a business related to the mortgage market that 3 years ago employed 12 people and now employs three of us.  I don't think people grasp how much of the work force, how many JOBS depend on a thriving housing and mortgage market.  We ditched our manufacturing capacity in this country 25 years ago, something had to replace it and the only thing containig enough real wealth to do so was housing and construction.  Without those engines to pull the economy there will be avery very long period of economic weakness indeed untgil overall US labor costs fall far enough to compete in the globalized "cheap labor economics" marketplace.

        "When the government becomes a lawbreaker, it invites every man to become a law unto himself." ~ Justice Brandeis

        by ActivistGuy on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 10:26:56 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Most people's wealth is tied up (5+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        taonow, 3goldens, neroden, MindRayge, ancblu

        in their homes. More people own homes than own stocks. People are deleveraging, reducing their debts, making their balance sheets positive. This is deflationary behavior, especially for an economy that was growing mainly due to the growth of credit (ie debt). Money supply is not growing, even the the Fed is engaging in quantitative easing, because banks aren't lending, and people aren't borrowing. Money supply growth is necessary for inflation.

        Money supply is comprised not only of cash on hand, but all the credit that is out there. So we can turn on the presses (or send out electrons), but if the rate of credit shrinkage is greater than the presses running, we are still in a deflationary environment. Deflation is good for people not in debt (at least for awhile).

        And deflation is happening in Japan, Germany, the Eurozone in general. Global deflation was the primary force in the Great Depression (not the trade war BS the globalists like to harp on). And deflation is occurring in the US right now.

        In every cry of every man, In every infant's cry of fear, In every voice, in every ban, The mind-forged manacles I hear

        by Areopagitica on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 11:01:58 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Question (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Drew J Jones, neroden

        This is interesting. I'm in the process of buying a place. I researched lenders and many of them still seem to be offering the creative financing that led to the current meltdown. Some of these are even TARP banks. I'm going for a 30 yr fixed interest rate loan, so that's not an issue for me. But if the standards have "tightened", then why do those loans still seem to be available? Also, in driving through trendy urban parts of DC that are up and coming, I still see ads for developments that say "no money down". How are these products all being offered if the lending rules have "changed"?

        •  In many cases, (0+ / 0-)

          Speaking to the DC neighborhoods, the party hasn't quite ended yet in DC.  Prices are only really crashing there in the outer suburbs, exurbs, and the tougher urban neighborhoods.  And they're still not crashing as they should yet.

          So you're still going to have access to some crazy there.

          "Words ought to be a little wild for they are the assault of thought on the unthinking." - John Maynard Keynes

          by Drew J Jones on Sun Jun 28, 2009 at 08:36:20 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  CT posted decent job gains (8+ / 0-)

    in June.

  •  Please read to last five points before going ape. (17+ / 0-)

    There's nothing inconsitent between good indicators, recovery and contined joblessness, although a recovery is a precondition of job growth, it's not a guarantee.

    That's why we've had "recovery" from the mild recession in Bush's first year that had stagnant wages and eh eh employment.

    Gov. Sanford is hiking the Appalachian Trail, and Franco is home nursing a head cold.

    by Inland on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 09:18:34 AM PDT

  •  It's interesting watching CNBC... (17+ / 0-)

    ...much of the daytime programming has been devoted to various talking heads promoting their (Friedman-esque) political agenda. There are also quite a number of doom-and-gloomers that talk down the economy because they see money to be made in a volatile, up and down market. Most spend their time excoriating Obama, Geithner and Bernanke for "ruining" their "free market" (as if there were such a thing) system.

    Occasionally, though, they actually report NEWS and quietly admit that the numbers are not as bad as expected and that things are getting better. I've gotten to the point now, when I hear the money-honey's and Kudlow shrieking ever louder....I figure Obama must be doing something right.

    The only life that matters to a conservative is that which can't talk back.

    by cls180 on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 09:20:09 AM PDT

    •  What I don't get about this doom and gloom (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Winnie, Bush Bites

      talk on CNBC and Fox is how their advertisers are OK with it.  Let's see...if we advertise on a channel where it's doom/gloom/24/7, maybe people won't buy our "things"?  But then again, since every other commercial seems to be for prescription drugs, maybe doomsday talk is GOOD for the bottom line! Wise up hawkers...nobody's gonna buy anything if they think there's no tomorrow!

    •  And they are screaming, aren't they. (0+ / 0-)

      I have to hit mute when those two are on.

      "Not the truth in whose possession any man is, or thinks he is, but the honest effort he has made to find out the truth, is what consitutes the worth of man."

      by Lying eyes on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 10:41:07 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Stop watching CNBC and read blogs instead (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      taonow, 3goldens, ancblu, thethinveil

      You want to be informed about the economic situation and here real thinking, stop watching that crap. Read read read.

      In every cry of every man, In every infant's cry of fear, In every voice, in every ban, The mind-forged manacles I hear

      by Areopagitica on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 10:53:27 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I'd love to.... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Fury, Bush Bites

        ....but I'm a trader lately rather than an investor. Believe it or not, CNBC is followed closely by the traders and when the herd says "BUY" they buy and when they say "SELL" you'd better have your finger on the button. I've made good money at this so far this year.

        Meanwhile, for my investment portfolio I do read, read, read....and have invested heavily in green energy companies and tech stocks.

        I figure trading stocks makes me a very bad Kossack but I'd rather put food on the table by playing along with Wall Street manipulations rather than bemoan "the man" and eating dirt (no need to flame, I'm just being silly).

        The only life that matters to a conservative is that which can't talk back.

        by cls180 on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 11:40:52 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Kudlow likes Geithner and Summers (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      keikekaze

      and the CNBC I'm watching keeps talking about the same recovery ("green shoots") as bonddad.

      "History is a tragedy, not a melodrama." - I.F.Stone

      by bigchin on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 11:31:00 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Oh wow. (15+ / 0-)

    Good economic news. I'd almost forgotten what that reads like. That said, the unemployment forecast is grim.

    Can't find my drink oh man Where are my keys, I lost my phone (phone ohoo) - Lady Gaga

    by MBNYC on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 09:21:13 AM PDT

  •  I am still not rolling the dice in that Casino (24+ / 0-)

    on Wall Street. It is not "investing", it is gambling pure and simple. Las Vegas has nothing on the Stock Market...except maybe the show girls and Wayne Newton.

    "We are a Plutocracy, we ought to face it. We need, desperately, to find new ways to hear independent voices & points of view" Ramsey Clark, US AG

    by Mr SeeMore on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 09:21:19 AM PDT

    •  That's why when I gamble (10+ / 0-)

      I go to Vegas. It's a lot more fun to watch Penn and Teller than it is stock traders.

      When the power of love overcomes the love of power the world will know peace. -Jimi Hendrix -6.0 -5.33

      by Cali Techie on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 09:28:04 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Can't stand Cirque du Soleil, though (0+ / 0-)

        Totally creepy.

        The braying sheep on my TV screen make this boy shout -- make this boy scream -- I'm going underground...

        by jamfan on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 09:31:51 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  You're right (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          mattman, jamfan, bigchin

          There's something wrong with that show I can't quite put my finger on. I know someone who was a costume designer for Cirque, and when I asked him he wouldn't tell me. All I know is he basically ran from the building screaming when he left.

          When the power of love overcomes the love of power the world will know peace. -Jimi Hendrix -6.0 -5.33

          by Cali Techie on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 09:35:12 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  I glad someone else said that. (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          mattman, jamfan

          Always felt there's something off with that whole thing.

          Until we break the corporate virtual monopoly on what we hear and see, we keep losing, don't matter what we do.

          by Jim P on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 09:45:26 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  It's Not Pablum (8+ / 0-)

            Americans love sanitized entertainment. Exploring ambiguous and sometimes dark themes just isn't an acceptable part of our disneyesque entertainment industry unless it comes in easily digestible chunks served up on tv and accompanied by a desert of happy or resolved endings. Especially live entertainment.

            •  Nah, they're just creepy. (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              mattman, jamfan

              I'm certainly not disneyfied, and have explored ambiguous and dark themes for decades. There's something ugly, and off, and just creepy about this act, to my sense of things.

              Until we break the corporate virtual monopoly on what we hear and see, we keep losing, don't matter what we do.

              by Jim P on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 09:55:21 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  hah! (0+ / 0-)

                I'm with you. I couldn't see many of my entertainment choices being described as pablum, God knows, but even I am turned off by CdS.

                The braying sheep on my TV screen make this boy shout -- make this boy scream -- I'm going underground...

                by jamfan on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 11:13:49 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

        •  There's two parts of Cirque: (0+ / 0-)

          Fantastic acrobatics and creepy Euro-clowns and fantasy.   I've been to two shows, and the second show had substantially more clowns and fantasy and it was not worth it.  The first was amazing.

          Gov. Sanford is hiking the Appalachian Trail, and Franco is home nursing a head cold.

          by Inland on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 11:08:43 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  I think you raise a good point (8+ / 0-)

      and I'm wondering how many people will ever go back into the stock market again--especially those who lost money during the dot com bust and then again in the Bush/Greenspan/Paulson bubble of last year.   I know that I'm through with it for good.  All of which leads me to wonder, so how do people save so that they get some decent return on their money?  Two banks in my area just received "cease and desist"  notices from the FDIC or Office of Thrift Supervision.  It was in this morning's paper.  The others around here aren't in a whole lot better shape and what they're paying for interest on Savings Account, CDs, and IRA/CDs would be laugh-out-loud funny if it weren't so pathetic and screwing the elderly and others trying to save.  

      •  My husband is a financial consultant and our (5+ / 0-)

        business is doing very well now.  Most savvy investors know that historically the market has consistently gone up and many want back in now. I do believe, however, that most clients now realize we were operating in a bubble for a long time and expect more realistic returns.  And they are returning to less risky, more down to earth investments than in the past 15 years.  Most seem cautiously optimistic about their own situations and more inclined to save long term.  I'm not a FC myself, but my advice would be to find a good, honest, financial advisor (unfortunately, there are alot of dishonest ones) and stick with it for the long term.  

      •  How to save? Obviously the (6+ / 0-)

        only safe investment is hard liquor in good glass bottles buried secretly in your back yard.  It will be good to trade for food later when things get really bad, and if someone tries to steal from you, you could just get them really drunk.  It can also sanitize injuries when the entire medical system collapses, and provides a form of anesthesia for more involved procedures.  

        I was wise enough to never grow up while fooling most people into believing I had. - Margaret Mead

        by fayea on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 10:13:03 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Yeah, why buy stocks when they are cheap??!!! (0+ / 0-)

        After being overvalued for something like 18 years, the stock market is finally back to being reasonably priced.  That, of course, means that recent returns have been poor, so ironically, but typically, a bunch of people will not invest their money.  They will wait until the next stock market bubble and then buy in, just to fleece themselves again.  

        Frankly, I hope the stock market goes down more.  I'd like to buy some more stocks at even cheaper prices.  

        Don't like XOM and OPEC? What have YOU done to reduce your oil consumption? Hot air does NOT constitute a renewable resource!

        by Asak on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 05:36:19 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I'm talking about the only retirement (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          In her own Voice

          money I've got left after 29 years of working full time.  I lost a ton of it during the dot com bust and the Greenspan bubble.  I can't afford to play fast and loose with that money.  Not all of us can afford to play the markets.  I don't appreciate your condescension or your taunting.  It shows a remarkable lack of awareness that not all of us have the money to "play the markets with".

    •  HaHa. Gambling with a fixed wheel. (9+ / 0-)

      Until we break the corporate virtual monopoly on what we hear and see, we keep losing, don't matter what we do.

      by Jim P on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 09:44:32 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  perfectly natural in a depressed economy (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        FistJab

        they are dumping onto eager buyers.

        I read a similar article on Bloomberg in May and researched it to find that 80% of the dumping was Bill Gates unloading MSFT.

        "The way to see by faith is to shut the eye of reason." - Thomas Paine

        by shrike on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 11:00:54 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  also perfectly natural when a sucker's rally (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          wsexson, jeff in nyc

          is going on and insiders realize their companies aren't going to be worth as much in a little while.

          Until we break the corporate virtual monopoly on what we hear and see, we keep losing, don't matter what we do.

          by Jim P on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 12:46:59 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  yea yea (0+ / 0-)

            even krugman and roubini are giving up on the "Suckers rally" BS. They have been wrong for months after month lately so they have given up(where have you heard zombi banks lately? guess those much criticized "stress tests" work eh)

            Come out of your bunker, the stimulus has yet to hit in full force and when it (and job numbers turn positive) does watch dow hit 10-11k easy.

            If you can't drink a lobbyist's whiskey, take his money, sleep with his women and still vote against him in the morning, you don't belong in politics.Jess Unruh

            by FistJab on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 03:02:56 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  No. The insiders are selling into the sucker's (0+ / 0-)

              rally. Read the link.

              Until we break the corporate virtual monopoly on what we hear and see, we keep losing, don't matter what we do.

              by Jim P on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 04:14:17 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  If the insiders knew anything... (0+ / 0-)

                They would have sold back in October 2007 and not now with the market down by 42%.  

                Don't like XOM and OPEC? What have YOU done to reduce your oil consumption? Hot air does NOT constitute a renewable resource!

                by Asak on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 05:38:25 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Please read the link provided, then argue (0+ / 0-)

                  about it:

                  Sales by CEOs, directors and senior officers have accelerated to the highest level since June 2007, two months before credit markets froze, as the S&P 500 rebounded from its 12-year low in March. The increase is making investors more skittish because executives presumably have the best information about their companies’ prospects.

                  They sold into a rising market in June '07. Then things went to hell. They were still in business. The Government & the Fed bumped trillions into financial companies. They were allowed to pretend that they don't hold trillions in over-valued assets. Financials, with our money and false balance sheets, then led the Stock Market rise, and in the meantime the real economy of real humans deteriorates.

                  So, they are selling into the market that rose since the last time it failed.

                  Until we break the corporate virtual monopoly on what we hear and see, we keep losing, don't matter what we do.

                  by Jim P on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 07:10:56 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  meanigless metric (0+ / 0-)

                    They are just taking profits. its not everyday that market moves up 40% in 3 months.

                    The info bondad provided are much more concrete measures than some big shot wallstreet traders taking their profits and going on holiday binges with it.

                    If you can't drink a lobbyist's whiskey, take his money, sleep with his women and still vote against him in the morning, you don't belong in politics.Jess Unruh

                    by FistJab on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 08:05:21 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  It's not a metric. It a predictive element. (0+ / 0-)

                      i.e, throughout the history of the Stock Market, insiders start dumping when things are about to take a bad turn. As recently as June 2007, for instance.

                      The ARM defaults, which will dwarf the subprimes.

                      A record 12 per cent of U.S. homeowners with a mortgage are behind on their payments or in foreclosure as the housing crisis spreads to borrowers with good credit. And the wave of foreclosures isn't expected to crest until the end of next year, the Mortgage Bankers Association said Thursday.

                      ...Nearly 6 per cent of fixed-rate mortgages to borrowers with good credit were in the foreclosure process.

                      At the same time, almost half of all adjustable-rate loans made to borrowers with shaky credit were past due or in foreclosure.

                      Note, that's "crest" at the end of 2010. Unless there's an historically massive government jobs program, and real soon, we ain't seen nothing yet.

                      Until we break the corporate virtual monopoly on what we hear and see, we keep losing, don't matter what we do.

                      by Jim P on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 08:55:48 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  Thats bullshit (0+ / 0-)

                        You know what caused this crisis & the masive job losses? the leham failure (which resulted from the housing crisis, but lehman didn't have to fail. it could have easily been bailed out). another lehman aint happening under Obama & geithner.

                        That's why I don't take people who say there are other leg downs seriously, a leg down happens were there is systemic failure that results in mass panics. That is not happening when gov is back stopping systemic risk firms (whether you agree with it or not).

                        P.S. the commercial loan market is 1/4 the size of the retail housing market. food for thought.

                        If you can't drink a lobbyist's whiskey, take his money, sleep with his women and still vote against him in the morning, you don't belong in politics.Jess Unruh

                        by FistJab on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 09:19:51 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  The Lehman failure came a year after (0+ / 0-)

                          the insiders were selling out. The Lehman failure came after Britain had to nationalize Northern and several other banks. There was a world-wide real estate bubble, which is why the whole world got into trouble.

                          Back here on earth, what's gone on is that our financial system is literally, irredeemably bankrupt. The Fed and the Government putting a few trillion into circulation is a palliative, and not a remedial operation. Meaning people can fool themselves for awhile until the bill comes due. But only for awhile.

                          Yelling bullshit might provide some sort of relief, but it ain't going to make basic arithmetic go away. People with no jobs = more defaults = less business = less government revenue = downtrending economy, and that ain't going away even with magic powers.

                          Until we break the corporate virtual monopoly on what we hear and see, we keep losing, don't matter what we do.

                          by Jim P on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 10:24:27 PM PDT

                          [ Parent ]

            •  Oh and (0+ / 0-)

              a tone of people made a LOT of meney from waht you call " suckers Rally" . the only suckers here are the ones that stayed out & didn't take the advice of the president on march 5th.

              If you can't drink a lobbyist's whiskey, take his money, sleep with his women and still vote against him in the morning, you don't belong in politics.Jess Unruh

              by FistJab on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 09:13:31 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

    •  the stock market is not a casino (7+ / 0-)

      It gets abused as one by elements of the finacial industry and this abuse can grow to epic proportions at times, but it isn't a casino.

      In a casino there is something known as a vig. It is unbeatable. It can not be overcome. It is a guaranteed rate of loss. There is no vig in the true sense in the stock market. An expense ratio is perhaps similar, but it can be overcome. A vig cannot.

      I first "got into" the stock market in 1977 when I inherited some shares in a power company from my grandfather. I bought my first stock of my own choosing in 1994. In that time I have made few trades other than dollar cost averaging into various stocks and mutual funds.

      Obviously my portfolio went down over the last year. But it is still in the black. Individual positions have lost value but overall the portfolio is above water.My annual return from 1977 to today stands at 4.9%. Obviously 1, 5 year and even 10 year returns are shockingly red, but a stock investment needs a horizon greater than 10 years. I have money invested in common stocks, stock mutual funds, bond mutual funds and cash.

      There is risk involved in investing, but it is not casino gambling. Casino gambling involves placing a bet that if repeated over time is guaranteed to lose. Taking a position in a broad market stock index or a similar bond market index involves a risk of downside movement but it guarantees neither a loss nor gain.

      There is an enormous difference between these two things. The capital markets are absolutely essential to the economic systems of the world. The fact that speculators abuse the system does not damn the entire process. Rather, it points out the need for regulation and control of the markets. Regulation and control that has been shown to be seriously lacking in the finacial markets right now.

      But it doesn't equate to casino gambling. Whether any particular individual feels the risk of finicial markets is worth it or not is another issue.

      •  Wall Street is equal parts sporting arena, (4+ / 0-)

        casino, thrill park, and magic show.

        What it once was, it no longer is...it has mutated into something very ugly in its deleterious effect on society in general.

        "We are a Plutocracy, we ought to face it. We need, desperately, to find new ways to hear independent voices & points of view" Ramsey Clark, US AG

        by Mr SeeMore on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 10:32:26 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Actually there is a "vig" in the stock market (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        rick, 3goldens, wsexson, enhydra lutris

        it is the combination of inside information and fees.  You only think you're playing on an even field.  If you have a billion or two you can play the game with the big boys on they're level but the rest of us schmucks aren't so lucky.  And even if you have access to the same information you get nickel and dimed constantly.  A $25 fee here, a $200 fee there, they make money on every transaction whether you win or lose.  Imagine blowing a draw in blackjack and then the dealer takes your $100 bet and asks for a $5 service charge to count your losses.  That is why Wall Street isn't a casino, a casino can only take your winnings.

        "The dead have risen and they're voting Republican!" -- Bart Simpson

        •  As someone who once paid $400-$500 (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Asak

          a trade, I'm quite content to give up $10.95 today.  I don't even notice it.  Trading has never been easier or cheaper.  Making judgements about what to trade, and when to trade it, is the same as it's always been - difficult.

          "Not the truth in whose possession any man is, or thinks he is, but the honest effort he has made to find out the truth, is what consitutes the worth of man."

          by Lying eyes on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 10:53:04 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Gambling has never been easier... (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            3goldens, enhydra lutris

            "Making judgements about what to trade, and when to trade it, is the same as it's always been - difficult".

            Or put another way...

            Making judgements about what to trade, and when to trade it, is the same as it's always been - a gamble.

            Making a judgment call...Do I hold on 14 or take another card (blackjack).

            "We are a Plutocracy, we ought to face it. We need, desperately, to find new ways to hear independent voices & points of view" Ramsey Clark, US AG

            by Mr SeeMore on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 11:07:56 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  vig is the House, which is Wall Street eom (0+ / 0-)
  •  May I complement that diagnosis (10+ / 0-)

    with some observations on the ground?  For at least a month now we have been seeing positively robust activity in the Seattle real estate market.  Buyers are buying--especially in the low end, and even in the higher ends we're seeing much better activity.  About a month ago, nearly all of the low-end inventory that had been sitting for months started flying off the shelves.  Now we're seeing homes under $400K (the low end for our market) sell within days, sometimes even with multiple offers.

    I have to see this as a good sign.  What kept buyers from buying over the winter was primarily FEAR--fear of losing their jobs, of further depreciation in the real estate market, etc..  That has clearly ceased to be a factor.

    I also agree with bonddad that the market activity probably won't return to previous levels--which were after all falsely manufactured by the too-risky loan programs.  However, my gut tells me that we're past the worst and probably by next spring we'll see a full-blown recovery.

    Save the parrots: Drink shade-grown coffee!

    by oscarsmom on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 09:23:44 AM PDT

  •  Just to play devil's advocate,.... (10+ / 0-)

    In your last graph, I see that some of the past recessionary rises in initial jobless claims did not travel a straight upward path.  There were pullbacks before a new onslaught of layoffs took the numbers still higher again.  On what can we predicate a confidence that the same is not happening now?

    •  asdf (10+ / 0-)

      1.) The length of time of the drop in the 4-week claims moving average.  While it's not foolproof it has been dropping for a statistically significant time.

      2.) About 70% of the jobs created in the last expansion are now gone.  Simply put, there aren't that many more jobs we can cut.

      "You think you can intimidate me? Screw you. Choose your Weapon." Eliot Spitzer

      by bonddad on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 09:32:27 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  asdf (11+ / 0-)

        To 1.) Would another interpretation be credible that the length of time of the drop could be matched by the length of the time of the rise?  In other words, could we, with the unusual circumstances of this particular recession, be seeing something bigger than usual that plays out over a longer and deeper trajectory -- something we can't really know the dimensions of until it plays itself out?

        To 2.) That's what they said during the Great Depression, too.  There are more jobs that can be cut.  There is no rule that the status quo ante of the Bush years is a solid floor below which we never again shall descend.

      •  Tell that to the California Governor (5+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        tmo, steelman, 3goldens, bigchin, thethinveil

        About 70% of the jobs created in the last expansion are now gone.  Simply put, there aren't that many more jobs we can cut.

        Cutting over 20 billion from government spending in California, with the loss of matching federal dollars for SCHIP and CalWorks will push an entire new wave of joblessness and economic contraction through the California economy.

        A little uptick in national leading indicators without looking at data state by state and industry by industry just hides the depth of the recession and the fact that is not a normal recession, and won't be a normal recovery.

        There is a God, but he got an MBA. How else can you explain our world?

        by Aeolus on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 11:04:57 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  The Problem Is (11+ / 0-)

    where will these jobs come from, when unemployment begins to catch up to the bigger picture? Right now, retail and specifically retail restaurants are one of the better stock industry groups. Are those still going to be growing in 2010? Wouldn't doubt it--for the reason that those are mostly, low paying jobs.

    Medical, biotech, these industries are highly specialized. Outside of needed support in clerical, janitors and security, I don't see where a lot of the lost jobs could relocate.

    Does Obama have a plan for job growth beyond the already published White House plan?

    That is all. Individually, I wish you the best, but collectively, my dearest hope is to outlive you - groovetronica

    by Nulwee on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 09:24:46 AM PDT

    •  But people are spending again-- (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Phoenix Woman, tomjones, Elise, Fury, neroden

      Maybe not at the levels we were previously, but we're not hanging onto every cent the way we were in the past few months, out of fear of complete disaster.  That will inevitably have a positive effect on employment a few steps down the line.

      Save the parrots: Drink shade-grown coffee!

      by oscarsmom on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 09:27:15 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  The reason (4+ / 0-)

        that retail is one of the better industry groups is because of said spending. The stock market takes that into account. So my point is, there may well be employment growth--but possibly in the lowest paying jobs.

        It's not a lot of fun in states like Oregon trying to get an entry-level customer service or cashier job when you're competing against 40 yo's with degrees. And how much living you can support on such wages is debatable.

        That is all. Individually, I wish you the best, but collectively, my dearest hope is to outlive you - groovetronica

        by Nulwee on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 09:35:57 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  No but you have to start somewhere-- (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Phoenix Woman, Elise, Nulwee

          I don't know what it's like in the retail sector, but in real estate, what we see is a ripple-UP effect; the lower end is the first to recover (which makes sense, as there are a lot more people in that range), but their spending eventually trickles up into the higher ranges--people are able to sell their house and buy up, etc. whereas they weren't able to before.

          Save the parrots: Drink shade-grown coffee!

          by oscarsmom on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 10:25:19 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  But the upper-level jobs are gone. (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MindRayge, Nulwee

            That's why people with two and three college degrees are competing for retail jobs.

            The stimulus bill had more than 50% of the planned new jobs to be in retail, and it was higher than that, but I don't have the bill in front of me to give the exact number. In the job category breakdown, it details the kinds of jobs the stimulus is supposed to create, and retail is the overwhelmingly highest number, outpacing construction or IT.

            People can't live on minimum wage when employers won't even give them 40 hours a week, in order to keep from paying benefits.

            We need someone to create decent jobs that pay a living wage in order for a REAL recovery to happen.

            "The difference between the right word and the almost-right word is like the difference between lightning and the lightning bug." -- Mark Twain

            by Brooke In Seattle on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 12:41:34 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  We won't know if people (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Brooke In Seattle, MindRayge

        are really spending until Christmas. That's when it will really show up.

        People don't spend on Christmas if they're worried about their jobs/income/etc.

    •  No (0+ / 0-)

      As far as I can tell Obama has no plan at all.

      Not just on jobs, but on pretty much everything. He is a very reactive president.

      I'm not part of a redneck agenda - Green Day

      by eugene on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 10:18:44 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  yea (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Escamillo

        The stimulus was reactive? he was crying catastrophe at the time while no one believed him. if the stim package had not passed we would be in much deeper unemployment right now.

        So Cut the BS & bitterness.

        If you can't drink a lobbyist's whiskey, take his money, sleep with his women and still vote against him in the morning, you don't belong in politics.Jess Unruh

        by FistJab on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 03:09:45 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  technology & engineering (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Nulwee

      A lot of stimulus money flowing in there as well. other than that IF cap and trade passes green jobs will lead the recovery (which is connected to tech as well).

      there.

      If you can't drink a lobbyist's whiskey, take his money, sleep with his women and still vote against him in the morning, you don't belong in politics.Jess Unruh

      by FistJab on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 03:08:03 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Sorry, dude. (26+ / 0-)

    None of this takes the financial sector's collapse into reasonable account.  This recession is different and will play by different rules.

    •  I'm with you (5+ / 0-)

      I think that reading the tea leaves doesn't work anymore.  We'll see a month from now.

    •  And Apparently No One's Watching Short Sellers (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      steelman, 3goldens, EdlinUser, ancblu

      I know I am.  They're doing the same thing they were doing last summer: betting on big declines in financials, real estate, precious metals, semiconductors, commodities, oil, and others.  The S&P 500 was starting to rollover already before a low-volume rally late this week.  I don't know how far it will go down for the rest of the year, but I think the March lows and beyond are a very real possibility.  That doesn't show me much confidence in the economy.

    •  Financial sector? (0+ / 0-)

      They are in best shape they have been in months. They got the bailout and a lot of fed money and raised TONE of private capital after the stress tests.

      Study on on facts.

      If you can't drink a lobbyist's whiskey, take his money, sleep with his women and still vote against him in the morning, you don't belong in politics.Jess Unruh

      by FistJab on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 03:11:58 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Not nearly enough. (0+ / 0-)

        Citigroup and Bank of America still aren't solvent, and the FDIC is eating local banks like a Very Hungry Caterpillar.  

        Things have gone from "OMG the entire concept of financial sector is ending!" to "OMG things are really awful!"  And that really is a move forward.  But we still have no idea how bad those toxic securities are, and if we take them on ourselves, that's another trillion or two in debt.

  •  There are signs of improvement (9+ / 0-)

    I'm beginning to get recruiting e-mails again.

    When the power of love overcomes the love of power the world will know peace. -Jimi Hendrix -6.0 -5.33

    by Cali Techie on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 09:26:05 AM PDT

  •  Something I've been wondering about (9+ / 0-)

    How widely spread will the recovery be?  My concern is that it will be highly concentrated in a few places, but many others will be left behind.

    Procrastination: Hard work often pays off after time, but laziness always pays off now.

    by Linnaeus on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 09:27:52 AM PDT

  •  and how will the CRE crash and HUGE... (17+ / 0-)

    ...option arm recast and other resets in alt-a residential markets affects this incrementally better news in 2010-2013?

    Answer: it's gonna wipe it out.  We have done nothing t address the financial industry's whorish ways, and with the Senate and apparently Obama too bought and paid for by Wall St., it's unlikely we will.

    So let's keep this in perspective.  The worst has yet to even rear its head yet.

    Dear Mr. President, There are too many states nowadays. Please eliminate three.
    P.S. I am not a crackpot.
    -Abe Simpson

    by fromer on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 09:29:53 AM PDT

    •  I see (0+ / 0-)

      people like you everyday on CNBC--Although on the opposite side of the aisle. Just because you hate Obama and his policies you CANNOT believe in a recovery. its all personal not factual for people like you.

      For example you hate the big bailed out banks, so you do NOT want them to recover, even if they are. its sad really. I call it the Rush Limbaugh syndrome, wanting things to fail because you disagree with them.

      If you can't drink a lobbyist's whiskey, take his money, sleep with his women and still vote against him in the morning, you don't belong in politics.Jess Unruh

      by FistJab on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 03:17:20 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  while the Obama effect has been salutary (9+ / 0-)

     giving people some hope that productivity, industry and honest behaviour will be rewarded and the indolent, predatory and incompetent prevented from continuing to raid the public till and push us all to ruin - I have a deep fear that the forces of returning to the good old days of shoveling money from the working, productive sector into the hands of the charlatans are hardly defeated.

     I think a fair reading of all the data suggests that we are still balanced on the knife's edge.

  •  Explain (12+ / 0-)

    how the economy has fundamentally changed from the bubble we previously had to the bubble plus trillions of dollars more we currently have?

    Explain why the economy will approve?  Will it be based on demand for consumer goods?  Increases in production/productivity?

    I'm just not seeing it, unless it is just a B.S. recovery and the economy will improve to the extent we are able to B.S. ourselves and others.  Perhaps the economy is just B.S. in a post industrial world?

    Denial is complicity.

    by Publius2008 on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 09:33:12 AM PDT

  •  2010 (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    expatjourno, lastman, scamperdo

    If you are correct, the Republicans will still have high unemployment to blame on the Democrats.  The media will neglect to emphasize how the recession got started, only that it's still not over and deficits are astronomical.  If the Rs win some senate seats, hope and change are doomed.  As it is, not enough change for me now.

    •  Yes people are stupid (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Ignacio Magaloni

      and will only believe the propaganda machine.

      Looks like it's time for us to work at circumventing the media. Go knock on your neighbor's doors and have a potluck BBQ. Watch some fireworks and talk politics. People listen to their neighbors unless they've cognitively captured by Rushbo.

      In every cry of every man, In every infant's cry of fear, In every voice, in every ban, The mind-forged manacles I hear

      by Areopagitica on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 10:28:48 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Yea, the recovery is on the horizon... (16+ / 0-)

    the event horizon

    an event horizon is a boundary in spacetime, most often an area surrounding a black hole, beyond which events cannot affect an outside observer

    Will the REAL Barack Obama please STAND UP!

    by OnlyWords on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 09:35:30 AM PDT

  •  The stock market bottomed March 4 (8+ / 0-)

    My understanding is that large new concept projects such as those Obama has decided to invest his stimulus in; alternative energy, mass transit, healthcare, "clean" coal; can take a decade or more to get through skematic design, design development, working drawings, RFP's bids, orders of conditions and into construction. Freedom Towers case in point.

    Jobs would be more likely to develop from the many new small 1-10 M healthcare infrastructure projects designed to implement the new mission of a single payer universal comprehensive public option.

    Another good source of jobs would be infrastructure repairs to roads and bridges, but along with the bailout of the auto companies we would be spending a lot of money that could be used to move away from our love affair with the suto and switch over to mass transit.

    Live Free or Die --- Investigate, Incarcerate

    by rktect on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 09:35:56 AM PDT

    •  Re (9+ / 0-)

      The stock market bottomed March 4

      You might regret posting this...

      •  Its possible you could have a double dip (0+ / 0-)

        if energy costs driving hyper inflation leave those without jobs unable to buy the essentials of food clothing and shelter, but on the other hand that hyper inflation would help reduce the deficit.

        Bottom line I'll add our Zimbabwaye like future where we all end up billionaires and unable to feed ourselves to my list of disaster scanrios, global warming, rising sea levels, isostatic rebound earthquakes, pole reversals, impacting asteroids, peak oil, overpopulation, polution and war and bet we will look back on these days as the good times.

        Live Free or Die --- Investigate, Incarcerate

        by rktect on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 02:19:15 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  You will (0+ / 0-)

        regret your stubbornness.

        If you can't drink a lobbyist's whiskey, take his money, sleep with his women and still vote against him in the morning, you don't belong in politics.Jess Unruh

        by FistJab on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 03:20:57 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  I don't know if this is necessarily going to take (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      askew, Lying eyes

      as long as you're suggesting - 10 years.

      There are already lots of alternative energy ideas that are ready to go.

      The "clean" coal Futuregen project will alone create hundreds of jobs.

      And - design, design development, drawings, bids, etc - all of those things employ people. That's a good thing.

      I think there are projects all along the spectrum - some that are ready to begin now but just need funding, some that need to go through bids, and of course, others at each stage you mentioned. To me, that indicates that the recovery will last for a long time.

      I just think it's important to remember that the bulk of the stimulus money that hasn't been spent yet are on big green projects.  

  •  I hope this doesn't become (9+ / 0-)

    ...another Jobless Recovery (aka:  Wall St.  Recovery) or the beginnings of another cycle of Bubble Capitilism

    "What has science DONE!"-Dr.Wierd

    by jds1978 on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 09:37:52 AM PDT

  •  Won't recovery be quite localized? (10+ / 0-)

    The above map shows the range in unemployment acrosss the States. Won't recovery also mirror that range, defying any generalizations and averaging? I would expect certain sectors where billions have been stimulating, say in NYC and K St, to recover quite well whereas areas still so tied to the burst real estate bubble and loss of manufacturing will be slipping further into ghost towns.

    Wouldn't it be more honest to look at our economy regionally at this point?

    Democracy is not safe if the people tolerate private power where it becomes stronger than their democratic state itself. That, in its essence, is fascism ~ FDR

    by cosmic debris on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 09:38:10 AM PDT

  •  Housing market still a quandary. (8+ / 0-)

    Too many people in bubble-impacted regions are underwater.

    Too many people in housing-bellwether regions (like myself) still can't sell their old place to move into anything different.

    And we can't get cramdown legislation.

    As someone with a growing family, being this bear-ish on the housing market is depressing. Watching a neighbor get foreclosed on this week and the moving truck showing up is doubly sad.

    "Yao from 20 ... yes!!!!!! Rockets by six. Great stuff. I haven't been this excited by a Chinese person since General Tso." -- Bill Simmons

    by malharden on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 09:38:49 AM PDT

    •  And don't forget the supply overhang (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      tmo, Aeolus

      of all the foreclosed properties the banks are still holding off the market, waiting for sunny days. We are talking about millions of empty homes.

      In every cry of every man, In every infant's cry of fear, In every voice, in every ban, The mind-forged manacles I hear

      by Areopagitica on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 10:46:48 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  But doesn't #5 (7+ / 0-)

    basically mean its for shit?  I mean a 1 - 2% growth rate with continuing high unemployment for the next two years or more will basically sink this administration.

  •  Small signs (11+ / 0-)

    I'm Senior Warden at my church and a member of the finance committee. I just got back from our mid-year finance meeting. We plan our annual budget Oct-Dec and implement it in January, but we have a mid-year meeting at the end of every June to determine whether  plate offerings have been lower than anticipated, whether rentals of our Parish Hall have dropped off, whether people have been unable to fulfill the annual pledges they made back at the end of '08 for '09...basically, we have to evaluate whether we need some sort of fundraiser to keep our budget balanced. We were shocked to discover that we are currently running a small surplus. Rentals are very high (support groups, exercise classes, theater camps, dance classes, etc.), plate offerings are up over what they were at the end of June '08, pledges are coming in as expected, and there have even been a couple of surprise, sizable donations out of nowhere. It was such a difference from our December '08 meeting, I can't tell you.

    Again, anecdotal evidence is no evidence at all, and I know that. I just was so flabbergasted at the financial stability of this non-profit organization that my characteristic pessimism will probably take the rest of the day off.

    And so I guess I will hope for the best and keep pushing all my elected representatives to err on the side of compassion, innovation, and boldness as far as economic fixes go.

    The braying sheep on my TV screen make this boy shout -- make this boy scream -- I'm going underground...

    by jamfan on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 09:41:02 AM PDT

  •  this is the first time i have rec'd your diary (4+ / 0-)

    not because you aren't brilliant and deserve to be rec'd, its just that your diaries tend to frighten and i tend avoid such things....so wonderful to see the optimistic indicators....thanks for all you do..

    •  It's ok to be frightened (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      GN1927, 3goldens, Lying eyes

      but it is better to be informed and share the knowledge.

      I've been reading his diaries when I see them.  I think I have learned quite a bit from him.  To the point when I was seeing "The sky is starting to kind of fall" stuff, I pulled my 401K into cash a while ago.  I'm glad I did.

  •  I hope to hell you're right bonddad! (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    mattman, FistJab, IL JimP, cjk002

    It's the fascism, stupid!

    by lastman on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 09:45:31 AM PDT

  •  Roubini also said recovery on the horizon (16+ / 0-)

    as well.

    I listen to Dr. Doom

    http://www.theatlantic.com/...

    Nouriel Roubini, the New York University economist who accurately forecast the bursting of the housing bubble and the resulting economic contraction, has become famous for his pessimism—he has been the gloomiest of the doomsayers. Which is what makes his current outlook surprising: Roubini believes that the Obama administration’s policy makers—and especially the much-maligned Tim Geithner—have gotten a lot right. Pitfalls may still abound, but he is now projecting an end to the recession, and he sees growth ahead.

    Obama 6/19/09: "(Iranian) demonstrations...(are) a testimony to...what Dr. King called the arc of the moral universe. It's long but it bends towards justice".

    by Drdemocrat on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 09:47:43 AM PDT

    •  Hee. He can be scary, but i was glad to read this (6+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      askew, TracieLynn, Elise, SherriG, fayea, FistJab

      "I have to give them credit that, less than a month after they came to power, they had achieved three major policy successes," he said. These were passing the $800 billion stimulus plan, the mortgage-relief plan to reduce foreclosures, and the "toxic asset" plan to help banks clear bad loans from their books. He said that the initial version of the bank-rescue plan was "botched, because it was rushed," but that the later version was better. "On each of these things, you can criticize specific elements," he said. "But they did the big things, and those are the main parameters of what is a constructive policy response. For now, you have to deal with the problem you are facing. All in all I think the policy is going in the right direction."

      "Only I AM the president of The United States" - Barack Obama.

      by blackwaterdog on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 10:11:09 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Except that two of thos policies (3+ / 0-)

        have been failures or not even used.

        The mortgage relief plan has helped about 20,000 homeowners keep their homes out of foreclosure, yet we are looking for 2-3 million foreclosures for the year.

        The "toxic asset" plan is dead in the water. No more peeps from PPIP. This is because the banks believe their crappy assets are worth more than they are and they know if they are wrong, Uncle Sam and the Fed will bail them out again (hence TARP recycling).

        People can be right sometimes, and wrong sometimes. There are better analysts than Roubini.

        In every cry of every man, In every infant's cry of fear, In every voice, in every ban, The mind-forged manacles I hear

        by Areopagitica on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 10:41:53 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Not over by a long shot (25+ / 0-)

    I am saying that the signs are there in more then a cursory fashion that the economy is bottoming and we will start to see positive GDP growth soon.

    Bottoming?  There are signs that the economy is slowing its descent. To call that bottoming is to be "jumping the gun". You may be right, but it may just be a pause on a continued drop.

    Here is another version....

    Credit continues to contract. Each week commercial paper and asset backed commercial  paper outstanding continue to fall. Still!

    The four week average of unemployment claims rose slightly last week...ending is descent, at least temporarily.

    Unemployment so far has been concentrated in manufacturing and construction. Services and government have been relatively unaffected. I call that the first wave. We are about to see the second wave...where unemployment spreads. You have seen the beginnings of this with a drop in the average workweek. Companies are holding on to people hoping the recession ends. But there are limits. I think we are about to see a second wave...for example teachers (state education budgets getting hit), auto dealers (Chrysler and GM dealerships), hotels (rev par down about 20% y.o.y) etc.

    The decline may be due in some part to government measures that have pumped funds into the economy. With the amount of money thrown around a break in the decline should be expected.

    Interest rates are headed higher. The continued government borrowing is going to push rates higher, shutting down house and car sales.

    This recession is not like the others. It is not an "inventory" recession. It is a credit crisis recession. It will not behave like the other recessions. It is more likely to look like Japan's 10 - 20 year mess.

    The Obama team has still not healed the banking system. They punted on an opportunity to really fix it by shutting down BofA and Citigroup and maybe 2 or 3 others. They will have to eventually.

    The real crime is the transfer of wealth from the public to Wall Street(though government debt).

    This thing ain't over. Not by a long shot. (I'm not saying you may not see some positive GDP numbers, but I am saying that they will be so low as to still feel like a recession...and a second dip is very likely).

    The wild card is the US dollar. A sharp drop in the dollar will help competitiveness, but hurt the standard of living. A sharp rise (still very possible) would deepen the recession.

    I can live with doubt and uncertainty and not knowing. I think it is much more interesting to live not knowing than to have answers that might be wrong- Feynman

    by taonow on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 09:50:28 AM PDT

    •  BINGO! n/t (4+ / 0-)

      "History is a tragedy, not a melodrama." - I.F.Stone

      by bigchin on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 09:55:52 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Interesting that Dr. Doom disagrees with you (6+ / 0-)

      Roubini also said that he sees recovery on the horizon with growth after that.

      http://www.theatlantic.com/...

      Nouriel Roubini, the New York University economist who accurately forecast the bursting of the housing bubble and the resulting economic contraction, has become famous for his pessimism—he has been the gloomiest of the doomsayers. Which is what makes his current outlook surprising: Roubini believes that the Obama administration’s policy makers—and especially the much-maligned Tim Geithner—have gotten a lot right. Pitfalls may still abound, but he is now projecting an end to the recession, and he sees growth ahead.

      Obama 6/19/09: "(Iranian) demonstrations...(are) a testimony to...what Dr. King called the arc of the moral universe. It's long but it bends towards justice".

      by Drdemocrat on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 10:14:10 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Crux (7+ / 0-)

        Here is the crux of the disagreement - what does "recovery" mean.

        To put it simply we are not likely to have another "crash", simply because we have already fallen so far. So for someone like Roubini there is no upside to calling a crash...so he says slow recovery.

        The recovery will NOT be like past recoveries because the cause of the recession is different. For the last 20 years the economy has been running on a fuel of credit (mortgage equity withdrawals etc). This has gone for good, and now the debt must be paid down. There is no way that you can have a strong recovery with the amount of debt overhang that exists. (without inflating another bubble that is...but that would just further postpone the inevitable).

        Essentially the US is in for a period (3 years +) of sub par economic performance. There may be "technical" growth, but it will not feel like any recovery you may have felt before.

        So when Roubini sees "growth" ahead, realize that it is NOT growth like in the past.

        You simply can not cure 20 years of overspending and credit mania with an 18 month slowdown. Welcome to reality.

        I can live with doubt and uncertainty and not knowing. I think it is much more interesting to live not knowing than to have answers that might be wrong- Feynman

        by taonow on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 11:08:38 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Are interest rates headed higher? (5+ / 0-)

      For the moment, mortgage rates at least are still fairly low.  Or is this just speculation?

      Save the parrots: Drink shade-grown coffee!

      by oscarsmom on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 10:31:46 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Well (0+ / 0-)

        Mortgage rates have jumped up in the last few weeks, although from very low levels. My opinion is that rates will go higher (hard to go lower) because of a) a huge amount of government borrowing and b) a decline in the US dollar.

        I can live with doubt and uncertainty and not knowing. I think it is much more interesting to live not knowing than to have answers that might be wrong- Feynman

        by taonow on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 11:02:02 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  What is your reply to Krugman (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Phoenix Woman, FistJab

          "When the going gets tough, the tough get 'too big to fail'."

          by New Deal democrat on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 11:13:58 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Hmmmm (0+ / 0-)

            He is talking short term day to day fluctuations.

            A lot of the short term bounces are actually a kind of "safe haven" flow. When bad data comes out the dollar strengthens and rates fall, good news, the opposite. Hedge funds are continually playing this trade.

            Here is what I think will drive rates....FEAR!

            If you own long term  bonds, say 10 years and up, you have to have a quick trigger finger. While rates have steadily declined the last many years, they really can't go much longer. The best you can hope for is that they stay at current levels. BUT, if rates start to head higher, bond prices tumble...so if you hold a long bond you lose money. What we have seen of late is that there are many folks ready to jump at the slightest hint of higher rates (to protect their bond investment). This could easily drive a big spike in rates...though probably not yet. The straws on the camel's back are not yet sufficient, but have no fear the government keeps adding them daily...so one day....

            So...the "odds" are that rates will go higher because:

            1. The government has to borrow a FORTUNE
            1. Rates can't go much lower
            1. All you need is for the economy to stop slowing for rates to want to move to normal levels.

            I can live with doubt and uncertainty and not knowing. I think it is much more interesting to live not knowing than to have answers that might be wrong- Feynman

            by taonow on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 12:18:45 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Re #3: isn't that what just happened? (0+ / 0-)

              I agree with your other two points, but I do not believe they will play out over the next months or even year or two.  Over the longer term, as in multiples of years and decades, those items are the biggest economic dangers imho.

              Of course, I'll probably be dead, so I guess I shouldn't care ....

              "When the going gets tough, the tough get 'too big to fail'."

              by New Deal democrat on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 12:24:31 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  re #3 (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                New Deal democrat

                What worries me is the possibility of a spike as everyone rushes for the door at the same time. In today's' markets we see this quite frequently.

                This is now a very crowded trade ... so an even sharper spike is quite possible. Not saying it will happen...but the gun is loaded and cocked...we just don't know if there will be a trigger.

                I can live with doubt and uncertainty and not knowing. I think it is much more interesting to live not knowing than to have answers that might be wrong- Feynman

                by taonow on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 01:09:33 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

    •  ding ding ding (9+ / 0-)

      I love these individuals who talk of the slowing downward momentum as the beginning of a rebound. The vector is still downward.

      The general business conditions index fell several points from last month’s level, dropping to (-9.4), but remained well above the string of deeply negative readings observed in the October-March period.

      Still negative, but not as negative, so that's a positive. Sunny days are here again. Give me a break.

      In every cry of every man, In every infant's cry of fear, In every voice, in every ban, The mind-forged manacles I hear

      by Areopagitica on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 10:44:28 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  100000% AGREE (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Aeolus, newpioneer, Areopagitica

        (regarding the bank mess) They want to cure the patient but not deal with the disease.

        by dark daze on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 11:41:19 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I am a business owner (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Odysseus, newpioneer

        just a small guy but I bet I am typical.  Even if we see improvement, we are going to be very conservative.  If we hire, we will hire temps.

         If we do hire full time, we dont need to offer benefits.  First we cant afford them, second who the hell knows what is coming with healthcare, and third, People are lining up for anytype of job.

         If we get real busy, guess what, yep our jobs can be done be anyone with a computer.  DOesnt matter if you are in the next cubicle or half way around the world. We may hire a live american, I would prefer, our beancounters however think that is nuts.

        Welcome to the 21st century.

        You see recovery for the average american worker?  I see 78% of american without college degrees as being left and forgotten.

        (regarding the bank mess) They want to cure the patient but not deal with the disease.

        by dark daze on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 11:54:01 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  That's why employment is a lagging indicator (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          New Deal democrat

          The economy starts to recover and business owners think, "Things are getting better." So they try to keep up by hiring temps or paying overtime to the regular workers, and eventually realize "I need to hire some more people."

          Or they go to India.

          Sure, understanding today's complex world of the future is a little like having bees live in your head. But, there they are.

          by Dbug on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 11:23:27 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  A question (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Rogneid, OnlyWords

    2.) Positive GDP growth is a prerequisite to employment growth. For those of you who disagree, please show me a time when a country had negative GDP growth and positive employment growth.

    I can see that positive GDP growth is a necessary condition but is it sufficient? What are the other decisive factors to reduce significantly the  unemployment rate? Is there a possibility of positive GDP growth that doesn't entail significant increased employment? Iirc, Marx understood that a "reserve army" of potential employees (i.e., a pool of un- and underemployed) was necessary for thriving capitalism (which, of course, he ultimately saw as an unsustainable system). So is the putative "jobless recovery" one version of this?

    •  You are correct to point this out (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Rogneid, 4Freedom

      GDP growth can be fueled by productivity gains which would mean less workers. Also factor in the fact that wages are declining for a lot of people, if there is any growth in the GDP it is going to be captured by those on the top while we workers continue to struggle.

      In every cry of every man, In every infant's cry of fear, In every voice, in every ban, The mind-forged manacles I hear

      by Areopagitica on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 10:24:59 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Employment growth... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Rogneid

      can be negative even though GDP growth is positive. The economy has to grow at a minimum of 1.5% to 2.0% to account for the growth in the workforce. This is why a weak recovery may be illusory: even though we will experience positive GDP the unemployment rate may continue to rise.

  •  6 Months ago, (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    GN1927, PointGuard, oscarsmom, lompe, FistJab

    the Telephone at my place of employment was not ringing.  No incoming business.  The last Month has seen a sharp increase in inquiries from potential clients, and several new contracts have been signed.  While this uptick does not yet constitute a "boom" in our business, it is encouraging.

    "We know the truth, not only by the reason, but also by the heart." - Blaise Pascal

    by Dixie Liberal on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 09:52:16 AM PDT

  •  And why is this happening? (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Rogneid, dogdad, thethinveil

    Tax cuts for the rich!

    pfffftt.

    My heroes have the heart to live the life I want to live.

    by JLFinch on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 09:55:34 AM PDT

  •  Thank you. I learned something new today (5+ / 0-)

    That's always good.

    "Only I AM the president of The United States" - Barack Obama.

    by blackwaterdog on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 09:56:14 AM PDT

  •  What will fuel the growth? (21+ / 0-)

    I don't doubt your analysis, bonddad. I do think we've hit bottom and may be in the beginning stages of our long, slow climb out of the hole.

    But where I struggle with analysis like this is in determining what is going to fuel our growth. We have shipped virtually every manufacturing job overseas and are in the process now of doing the same to the IT services sector, not to mention back-office portions of healthcare, finance, and even R&D.

    If you say the orders for durable goods rose, I think, great, that translates into a higher trade deficit as we ship in more product from China.

    We can't export personal services. And, let's face it, the international goodwill deficit caused by 8 years of Bu$hco means that we will be sending more tourism dollars overseas than we bring in.

    At some point, we've got to have good paying jobs in this country. The average worker in this country knows that - they're living it. But to hear our paid-for corporate media, corporate execs and their talking heads, and the paid-for shills in Wa$hington tell it, the American consumer will rise to save the day once again.

    I'm standing here, like many of my fellow serfs, asking one vital question: "Um, HOW?"

    "Respect for the rights of others is peace." Benito Juarez

    by Blue Boy Red State on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 09:57:16 AM PDT

    •  Precarity is how (5+ / 0-)

      Temporary, part-time, contingent, flextime (by the boss's choice, not yours), seasonal, contract labor, day labor, faux self-employment, these will increasingly be the norm for the workforce, as such forms of precarity allow the US GDP to grow by more effectively competing  as a source of cheap labor.

      "When the government becomes a lawbreaker, it invites every man to become a law unto himself." ~ Justice Brandeis

      by ActivistGuy on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 10:14:08 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Dont balance sheet issues of toxic assets remain? (8+ / 0-)

    Until this is solved, any recovery is still a house of cards.

    Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect -- Mark Twain.

    by dcrolg on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 09:59:51 AM PDT

    •  well... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      dcrolg

      we see companies like the Hartford taking TARP funds to make up for the fact that they bought those toxic assets because they thought they were triple A rated debt. So now the Hartford, other insurance companies, pensions and everyone else who bought this crap from the Wall Street scum who sold have to clean up their books.

      The large print giveth and the small print taketh away.

      by jbou on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 10:36:32 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Just Remember 1930 - (15+ / 0-)

    The Dow Jones recovered more than half of what it lost in the October Crash of 1929 - getting back almost to 300 - better by far percentage-wise than 2009.  But by the middle of 1932 the Dow had fallen to 42.

    We'll see.
    There's been a lot a talk about the "W".
    (And I doesn't mean Dubya.)

    PS - Yeah, I know.  Smoot-Hawley.

  •  Caveats duly noted! Hope the doomsayers go easy (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Rogneid, writerkirk

    on you this time around. It's been interesting seeing what has happened in your diary comments as your predictions have shifted from continued fall, to likely bottom, to slow crawl back up.  

    It just sucks that unemployment is such a lagging indicator as you say.  I have two close friends who have just been devastated by it.... out of work 14 and 18 months respectively.

  •  From bonddad's lips to Ceiling Cat's ears, plz nt (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    oscarsmom, writerkirk
  •  and no mention whatsoever of our collective (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Redbug, Bronx59, Areopagitica

    balance sheet that is at the center of our troubles? Lame diary.

  •  Why is growth good? (13+ / 0-)

    A mature forest or coral reef doesn't continue to grow. Rather the organisms diversify and find new niches created by the activities of other organisms.

    Cancer grows infinitely until the host dies. That's what economic growth does. Emphasis on growth is the problem. This is a finite planet. We should apply our ability to reason and respond cooperatively to the limits of the natural world, not seek to grow ourselves infinitely out of proportion to our habitat.

    "Grandiosity is just another way we lie to ourselves." -Kunstler

    by howardfromUSA on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 10:06:29 AM PDT

    •  Resource based economies with finite resources. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      neroden

      A perfect storm is gathering in which the resources, whose use are the root cause of climate change, are beginning to disappear. By the time the last ton of coal is burnt, the planet will be dead.

    •  You Grow Or You Die (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      FistJab

      The conservative looking for stability is little better than the reactionary dreaming of things the way they weren't.

      Growth does not stop in forests or coral reefs unless they are dying.

      Cancerous growths are not a result of healthy growth but mostly of age and loss of vitality.

      Resources are vast and renewable.  We need not destroy the planet as we are doing.

      Best,  Terry

      •  The trees grow and die, but the forest (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        tmo, neroden

        need not grow after reaching symbiosis with it's habitat. Resources are not so vast. The oceans and the atmosphere have been severely polluted and largely exhausted.

        "Grandiosity is just another way we lie to ourselves." -Kunstler

        by howardfromUSA on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 10:34:37 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Half-vast? (0+ / 0-)

          Resources are not so vast.

          Not so vast as what?

          We are limited mostly by our lack of intelligence and by our indolence.

          The conservative says there is only enough for me and mine.

          Not all of us are conservatives.

          Best,  Terry

          •  We aren't limited so much by ourselves (0+ / 0-)

            as we are by our habitat. It's not always about us.

            There's only enough for a few of us and them, but for there to be enough for all of us we need to limit what we take, both by limiting how many of us there are and by limiting what each of us takes.

            "Grandiosity is just another way we lie to ourselves." -Kunstler

            by howardfromUSA on Sun Jun 28, 2009 at 09:48:27 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  From Time Immemorial hunans and perhaps all (0+ / 0-)

              living things have hoarded goods and space for themselves.

              The attacks on immigrants are part of the urge to save ourselves and ours from foreign invaders, who may or may not present a threat.

              At the same time we are hoarding resources for ourselves, we expend vast resources in the endeavor.

              Tiny pieces of nearly worthless land occasion wars between nations while their people starve.

              There is never any shortage of resources for war.

              We do have vast resources of renewable energy, of talent, of land, of water.  Instead of protecting and preserving and utilizing the resources wisely, we fight those who might take any possession from us.

              Maybe when we destroy ourselves, Mother Nature will evolve an intelligent species.

              Best,  Terry

      •  And If You Just Continue To Grow You Die (5+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        tmo, wsexson, neroden, MindRayge, oscarsmom

        You Grow Or You Die

        Exponential growth is not sustainable in a closed system ... period.

        <div style="font-size:10px;text-align:center;background-color:#ffd;color:#f33">If the terriers and bariffs are torn down, this economy will grow - G. Bush

        by superscalar on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 10:36:14 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Population control (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Paul Goodman, neroden, Tam in CA

      And encouraging of better habits--but we'll never really stop consuming the earth's resources til we slow or stop this out-of-control population boom.

      Otherwise you're right; it will take care of itself.

      Save the parrots: Drink shade-grown coffee!

      by oscarsmom on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 10:28:49 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Oh, right...the jobless recovery (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    newpioneer, keikekaze

    dream on, dude.

    "The military industrial complex not only controls our government, lock, stock and barrel, but they control our culture." - Mike Gravel

    by Wilberforce on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 10:15:55 AM PDT

  •  I agree that the indicators look like we (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    munky, Tanya, keikekaze, Areopagitica

    are stabilizing, but long term issues require a massive tax increase on the wealthy to work down the deficit, and stop injecting so damn much money into speculation.

    All signs point to that not happening.

    So we are basically on track to reset ourselves for the next bubble, and the next disaster.

    Oh well.

    By the time the next cycle of bubble and bust happens, the real world as in Planet Earth will be showing us who is Boss. It won't matter much by then.

    Extreme Republican Evangelical Elitism is destroying America

    by shpilk on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 10:16:30 AM PDT

  •  I see a W or square root recovery (9+ / 0-)

    I cannot see how we get a meaningful recovery in the near future with the consumer essentially gone (savings rate back up near 7%) combined with the inevitable coming rise in both interest rates and inflation.  I agree that we are bouncing off the lows of the recession, but that doesn't necessarily mean recovery, it just means that we are leveling out.  Also, as people start to come off of unemployment (as they are), even more consumption will likely be taken out of the system if they cannot find jobs.

  •  What about California? n/t (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Aeolus, dark daze

    Blagojevich/Palin '12.

    by fou on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 10:21:27 AM PDT

  •  ItsALieItsAllALieAndYouSuckAndTheEndIsNie! (8+ / 0-)

    :)

    President Barack Obama has kept us safe from terrorism for 147 days.

    by JeffLieber on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 10:21:45 AM PDT

  •  Distant horizon. I buy that we are bottoming but (6+ / 0-)

    not that the recovery is in sight.  Your point 5)

    I have repeatedly stated I do not think the recovery will be robust.  In fact, I think we'll be stuck in a 1%-2% growth rate with high unemployment for at least another year and a half or longer.

    If we have GDP growth of 1% by the end of the year, with our population growth, the GDP per person is flat.  That, plus necessary bank balance sheet repair and the number of people underwater in their houses, makes me not trust the word "recovery".  

    Looks like a long flat bottom to me.  

  •  I love how, to some, all of this data is (5+ / 0-)

    invisible and we get "no evidence of a recovery" comments.

    Pessimists frequently mistake themselves for realists because pessimism is so often a self fulfilling prophecy.

    Picture a bright blue ball just spinnin' spinnin' free. It's dizzy with possibility.

    by lockewasright on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 10:31:50 AM PDT

    •  I think people tend to speak from (6+ / 0-)

      their own personal viewpoint as well.  What they want to know is, when will their personal households recover?  And until that happens, they don't accept it as a recovery.

      Save the parrots: Drink shade-grown coffee!

      by oscarsmom on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 10:39:26 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Yep (5+ / 0-)

      And what's most baffling to me is the hostility included in those comments.  I know not all of them are openly hostile, but quite a number of them are.  It's great to disagree or see the current situation differently but I don't understand why anyone is angry at the diarist for his viewpoint.

      Maybe some folks were/are really invested in the idea that total collapse of the economy was a great idea (supposedly ushering in some new era of economic equality) and the potential for a recovery frustrates those goals, so the reaction is anger.  I can't figure any other reason for it.

      "You must be the change you wish to see in the world." -Gandhi

      by Triscula on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 11:12:53 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  That's exactly it (5+ / 0-)

        Maybe some folks were/are really invested in the idea that total collapse of the economy was a great idea (supposedly ushering in some new era of economic equality) and the potential for a recovery frustrates those goals, so the reaction is anger.  I can't figure any other reason for it.

        Many if not most of Bonddad's current hardcore stalkers (as opposed to his honest critics) aren't particularly fond of Obama, our political system, or capitalism in general.  They wuuuuuved Bonddad back when he used charts and graphs to predict the downturn before it hit.  They hate him now, but his methodology hasn't changed at all.  The incoming data has changed, mostly for the better, but he hasn't changed how he handles it.

        Visit http://theuptake.org/ for Minnesota news as it happens.

        by Phoenix Woman on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 11:32:30 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  You are a voice of reason (0+ / 0-)

          I think bonddad does a good job putting the numbers and graphs together.

          But his diaries bring out the chicken littles.

          People with houses that lost value, or people who want to buy a house (but want it to be less expensive). People worried about trade deficits or budget deficits or inflation or deflation. People who lost money in the housing bubble. People who want to get in on the ground floor of the newest bubble. People who lost a job and only care about getting a new one that pays as well as their old one. Flat-taxers (and flat-earthers). Death-taxers (OK, not so many of them among Democrats). Marxists who want capitalism to collapse. Californians who want Arnold to fail. People who hate big corporations. People who want more manufacturing jobs (from big corporations like Ford or GM). People who want more computer jobs. People who think there are "lies, damned lies, and statistics." People who want to blame Bush, or Bernanke, or Geithner, or whoever.

          I predict that three years from now (or five years or seven or whatever), when the economy has recovered, bonddad will post a diary that says, "Leading indicators are dipping."

          Sure, understanding today's complex world of the future is a little like having bees live in your head. But, there they are.

          by Dbug on Sun Jun 28, 2009 at 12:17:07 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  anyone (0+ / 0-)

      anyone can cherry pick charts.

      (regarding the bank mess) They want to cure the patient but not deal with the disease.

      by dark daze on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 11:47:36 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  and the presence of even 1 puts the lie to the (0+ / 0-)

        assertion that no evidence of a recovery exists.

        Picture a bright blue ball just spinnin' spinnin' free. It's dizzy with possibility.

        by lockewasright on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 11:50:20 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  bottoming (0+ / 0-)

          bottoming is not recovering.

          (regarding the bank mess) They want to cure the patient but not deal with the disease.

          by dark daze on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 11:56:02 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Please, no matter what you do... (0+ / 0-)

            don't ever see anything positive.

            Ever.

            Some of those charts show positive stats, not just a bottom.

            Next fail please.

            Picture a bright blue ball just spinnin' spinnin' free. It's dizzy with possibility.

            by lockewasright on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 12:04:30 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  Define 'recovery' (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          wsexson, Brooke In Seattle

          Profuse of the word, but nobody really defines what it does, or should, mean.

          Does 'recovery' mean returning to the U.S. economy of 2004, 2001, 1996, 1993?

          Does 'recovery' mean a slowing of the downward acceleration?

          To say that a 'recovery' is or isn't occurring first requires that first a common definition of 'recovery' be agreed upon.

          <div style="font-size:10px;text-align:center;background-color:#ffd;color:#f33">If the terriers and bariffs are torn down, this economy will grow - G. Bush

          by superscalar on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 12:08:46 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  recovery is a positive turn in stats. (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            superscalar, FistJab

            See the charts above.  Some of the stats are going positive.  Some are leveling off and some remain negative.  My beef was with the obvious falsehood in the assertion that there is no evidence of an imminent recovery.

            Picture a bright blue ball just spinnin' spinnin' free. It's dizzy with possibility.

            by lockewasright on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 12:22:04 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  This Wasn't So Much Directed At You Personally (0+ / 0-)

              I think that if, as you have, one defines what they mean when they use the word, one can then engage in a conversation about whether or not a 'recovery' is occurring.

              I would agree that there is a decline in the downward acceleration in some economic indicators. It is interpretation of the 'why' behind some of these changes that I would argue with.

              My beef was with the obvious falsehood in the assertion that there is no evidence of an imminent recovery.

              Once again, the 'imminent recovery' to what prior state?

              <div style="font-size:10px;text-align:center;background-color:#ffd;color:#f33">If the terriers and bariffs are torn down, this economy will grow - G. Bush

              by superscalar on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 12:29:40 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  IMO we are facing the end of the recession as it (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                New Deal democrat

                is statistically defined, but have not addressed the cause of the boom and bust cycle.  Those are two separate issues and some around here want to refuse to acknowledge that this particular recession may be coming to an end even though it will simply be part of a cycle that we still need to break.  I think the more accurate assessment is to acknowledge both realities.

                Picture a bright blue ball just spinnin' spinnin' free. It's dizzy with possibility.

                by lockewasright on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 01:32:56 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

              •  A recession is two consecutive quarters (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                New Deal democrat

                of shrinkage of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). When I was a kid, they called it Gross National Product, but whatever. That's the generally accepted definition. So six months of the GDP going down. Which means less production, less employment, less investment, less inflation, and so on.

                Because you have to wait six months to see if it's really a recession, economists declare a recession only after the fact. A recovery is when the GDP numbers start to go up (although a "W" is a graph where it goes down, goes up a little and then goes down again -- and the label "W" has nothing to do with GW Bush).

                The recession of 2008 may be easing. That's the point of bonddad's graphs and charts. The leading indicators are hitting bottom and starting to rise. the lagging indicators will, as their name implies, lag.

                Think of the recovery as an automobile traveling down a highway towards you. Seeing headlights is a leading indicator -- it's not here yet, but you're pretty sure it's coming and it will be here soon. Then the car comes by you and you turn your head. The tail lights are the lagging indicators (like rising employment).

                Sure, understanding today's complex world of the future is a little like having bees live in your head. But, there they are.

                by Dbug on Sun Jun 28, 2009 at 12:45:36 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

  •  well... (4+ / 0-)

    what you're telling us is that we are starting to produce more using less. GDP is growing while we have 10 percent of out population sitting on the sidelines. That is not a positive sign.

    And you end you diary telling us that we are not going to see a recovery in the job market for another year and a half or longer, that is not a good sign either.

    One last thing, we are a consumer driven economy, where is the recovery coming from? because I haven't seen consumer spending grow.

    The large print giveth and the small print taketh away.

    by jbou on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 10:32:21 AM PDT

  •  When has Bonddad become a PPP? (5+ / 3-)

    Pervasive Pollyanna of Prosperity.

    I guess that as long as all is well with Wall Street gamblers.  He gives us workers a single-fingered salute.

    Distrust of authority should be the first civic duty. - Norman Douglas

    by Fossil on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 10:34:01 AM PDT

    •  Why? (8+ / 0-)

      Why say something like this?  If you disagree with his analysis, fine.  But why the hostility?

      "You must be the change you wish to see in the world." -Gandhi

      by Triscula on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 11:14:37 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  because (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        thethinveil

        this is happy talk Mumbo jumbo.  Bondad was better than this.

        (regarding the bank mess) They want to cure the patient but not deal with the disease.

        by dark daze on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 11:46:47 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I was better when I was negative (16+ / 0-)

          Now that I think things are turning around I'm a corporate shill.  I've heard it before.

          So here you go -- "THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! "THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! "THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! "THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! "THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! "THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! "THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! "THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! "THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! "THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! "THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! "THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING!

          "You think you can intimidate me? Screw you. Choose your Weapon." Eliot Spitzer

          by bonddad on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 12:01:31 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Man that is funny. (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            wsexson, newpioneer, notrouble, j b norton

            "dood stop being a chicken little, I know you and your friends are unemployed and can't pay for food for your children or for health care but that doesn't mean you have to rain on our parade.

            Our parade is fun and you just can't see the bright side of life - in fact you think things are worse off for you - stop the hysteria. The fact that you can't afford housing doesn't mitigate that the fact we are in a recovery."

            "What is the robbing of a Bank compared to the FOUNDING of a Bank?" Bertolt Brecht

            by thethinveil on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 01:26:21 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  Tipped for pandering to the D&G crowd.../snark (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            notrouble, j b norton, FistJab

            Obama - Change I still believe in

            by dvogel001 on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 01:36:49 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  Not better--just closer to being right. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Fossil

            The free-fall has stopped, sure--it had to--but we're not approaching a real recovery--not this year or next.  We're just likely to be bumping along at or near the bottom of a depression, for quite a long time (see: 1930-34), not getting too much better or too much worse.  That's not the same thing as a recovery.

            Recovery could start to happen, seriously, when stimulus is seriously applied to the manufacturing sector in this country, to green jobs and green energy, to other socially useful and labor-intensive enterprises, and to paying down the mountain of debt under which the fed and the states are still staggering.  This may happen--or it may not--but even if it does it's likely to be years before the beneficial effects are truly visible.

            This isn't gloom-and-doom.  It's just reality, as distinct from wishful thinking.

            "Americans are a wonderful people: They will always do the right thing--after exhausting every other possible alternative."--Winston Churchill

            by keikekaze on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 04:37:41 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  I'm confused (0+ / 0-)

            Is the sky falling or not?

            Capital is only the fruit of labor, [...] Labor is the superior of capital, and deserves much the higher consideration.
            President Lincoln, December 3, 1861

            by notrouble on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 07:43:30 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  Is he different now? (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          notrouble, your neighbor, FistJab

          He's using the same sources and data that he used when he was talking about the (then) coming recession.  If he was "better" then I don't see what your objection is to him now.  Do you only like him when he's got bad news?

          Anyway, that doesn't really answer my question.  Clearly you disagree with him, and that's fine, but why are you so angry about it?  Consider making a comment where you craft a rebuttal to the points in the diary.  There's no need to hate on each other.  We're all (ostensibly) on the same side here.

          "You must be the change you wish to see in the world." -Gandhi

          by Triscula on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 12:15:52 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Carlin said it best (0+ / 0-)

          Dreams have a way of betraying you when you use them to escape. Ask yourself why you dream what you dream.

          by brjzn on Sun Jun 28, 2009 at 04:23:15 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Sometimes I feel hostile (0+ / 0-)

        after thirty years of hearing that Wall Street/Finance is the center of the universe while so little is done to promote productive domestic manufacturing.  And, especially when analysis that focuses exclusively on investment only serves to maintain the bias of wealth over labor that has distorted the "economy" that all but the wealthy and their enablers are forced to experience.

        Distrust of authority should be the first civic duty. - Norman Douglas

        by Fossil on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 07:00:02 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  there is no reason to personally attack the (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      PhilW, lompe, PurpleMyst, BoxNDox, FistJab

      author.

      Learn to disagree without being disagreeable.

      A song about life
      Why aren't you more like Gandhi? Why aren't I?

      by drache on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 11:52:06 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Rec because the author inuslts other as doomsayer (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      pletzs, forgore

      -s.

      Only right that he should be called a Pollyanna.

      "What is the robbing of a Bank compared to the FOUNDING of a Bank?" Bertolt Brecht

      by thethinveil on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 01:18:39 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  50-60 million manufacturing jobs shipped off (6+ / 0-)

    or lost over the last 25 years. The real question is not whether, in Wall Street's terms, the economy is "recovering," but how are we going to construct a sustainable world? What do we need to make? Grow? What do we hope to do with our and our children's lives?  

    "The economic anarchy of capitalist society as it exists today is, in my opinion, the real source of the evil." Albert Einstein, "Why Socialism?"

    by Matthew Detroit on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 10:34:53 AM PDT

  •  Thanks for explaining this so simply! (5+ / 0-)

    These graphs are quite a bit confusing without your explanations.

    I hope you're right about the movement in the economic indicators - perhaps we are moving upward.

    I know when the stimulus was passed many economists said it could take a year or longer to see the impact the stimulus would have on the economy - do you think that's what we're starting to see? Or do you think that that's what we'll see in the months to come and perhaps that's why we'll keep moving upward?

  •  Thank you for writing this (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    askew, gobears2000, writerkirk

    I don't think anyone would argue that the current economic climate is stark, or that the specific measures which the Obama administration has taken are all perfect and could not have been designed in alternative fashion.  But to superimpose the Bushist notion of jobless recovery onto the debatable but valid idea that some of the Obama administration's measures have worked and that there are indicators that unemployment might bottom out next year is simply...I'm throwing up my hands at this point.

  •  So we (may have) hit bottom... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Rogneid, writerkirk

    this is not necessarily good news. after all, it isn't the fall that kills you. just ask humpdy-dumpty.

    Will the REAL Barack Obama please STAND UP!

    by OnlyWords on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 10:38:37 AM PDT

  •  In other words, back to the Bush years (5+ / 0-)

    of phony growth, and a debt-fueled "jobless recovery".

    Clap louder!

    The Bill of Rights is universal.

    by Paul Goodman on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 10:39:08 AM PDT

  •  Baltic Dry Index Is Rising (5+ / 0-)

    When the BDI starts to rise, it usually means that the economy is improving.  Although there are people who disagree.  What the BDI is saying is that shipping is increasing.  Shipping means that goods are being moved.  Shipping in China is increasng, so it sounds like their economy is picking up.  Does that mean that the economy is improving.  I tend to believe that if more people are spending money it has to lead to the economy picking up.  

    •  Commodity prices too. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      New Deal democrat

      My boss always says, when paper goes up it usually means people are shipping.

      I know many here are afraid to suggest that the end is not nigh, but right now I think things are actually progressing about three months faster than I'd expected.  Q3 just might be positive, and Q2 in four weeks might be very close to 0, perhaps as little as a negative 2% or better.

  •  W/Out FAMILY Wage Job Growth, 'recov' is a lie (4+ / 1-)
    Recommended by:
    rick, Wilberforce, Rogneid, Boxer7
    Hidden by:
    FistJab

    and a fascist lie at that.

    it is a wonderful fig leaf to keep shovelling money at the motherfuckers who fracked everything up AND

    NOT invest in the community.

    'recovery' my ass.

    rmm.

    Yond Cassius has a lean and hungry look; He thinks too much: such men are dangerous

    by seabos84 on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 10:40:18 AM PDT

    •  and where is the evidence average wage (5+ / 0-)

       growth is anywhere in this galaxy  - as opposed to over the horizon -

       wages have been static to declining for nearly 3 decades - growth has been in the - errrrrr - financial sectors (aka the piggies feeding at the trough)

    •  A fascist lie??? (10+ / 0-)

      Hyperbole anyone?

      Come on.

      •  We live in different universes. Sesame Street is (0+ / 0-)

        not where I live.

        "yes we did!" what? elected a slogan?

        I guess we're even - you call my reality 'hyperbole', I call your "reality" sesame street.

        rmm.

        Yond Cassius has a lean and hungry look; He thinks too much: such men are dangerous

        by seabos84 on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 11:12:42 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  To some people on the left, "fascist" is ... (6+ / 0-)

        anything they disagree with, just like "socialist" or "communist" is to those on the right.  When somebody starts using those labels for things to which they clearly don't apply, I know not to waste another second of my life paying any attention to them.

        •  YAWN. wow. I'm heartbroken. Can't I keep LOSING (0+ / 1-)
          Recommended by:
          Hidden by:
          FistJab

          with you as a losing mate?

          shit, my life is really really adrift now.

          I better not call fascists fascists, cuz, then all the nicey nice losers won't like like me!

          'recovery' is a fascist meme - too bad bonddad uses it.

          rmm.

          Yond Cassius has a lean and hungry look; He thinks too much: such men are dangerous

          by seabos84 on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 03:10:47 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Who are the "fascists" that you're calling ... (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            notrouble

            fascists?  And more to the point, do you have any idea of what the term means, or do you simply use it as an epithet for anybody with whom you disagree?

            •  um... did you happen to catch the elections of (0+ / 0-)

              1980, 1984, 1988 ... '94, '00 ...

              IF you think the winners aren't fascists, cuz they haven't put people into cattle cars, good for you.

              bonddad, as far as I'm concerned, is using a fascist lie with this 'recovery' phrasing.  bonddad ain't a fascist or a republican stooge by any stretch of the imagination.

              a lot of the language used in conventional speech is part helps reinforce the fascist lies - that is cuz the fuckers EXCEL at being fascists and hiding it from too many.

              I disagree with him, people disagree with me ...

              lions and tigers and bears, oh my.

              as I re-read my initial comment, I suppose I can see where you might think I was accusing bondad of being a fascist ... but, given how few words are in the comment, you can also read all kinds of other things I did NOT say into it as well.

              'recovery' is a fascist lie.

              whether anythign is improving or just bottoming or still tanking, those are different arguements.

              how I feel about bondad ... isn't this psycho-babble-ish enough?

              rmm.

              Yond Cassius has a lean and hungry look; He thinks too much: such men are dangerous

              by seabos84 on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 07:24:17 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

    •  Please define (0+ / 0-)

      a fascist lie

      I think you are just pulling shock words out of your derrière .

      Capital is only the fruit of labor, [...] Labor is the superior of capital, and deserves much the higher consideration.
      President Lincoln, December 3, 1861

      by notrouble on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 07:39:56 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  When you flood the system with money (6+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    tgs1952, munky, wsexson, Cliss, dark daze, GeeBee

    of course some indicators will look good.

    Why is this diary on the rec list?

  •  single payer and wind power can end the recession (5+ / 0-)

    People who work solely to pay health insurance would quit working the day single payer passes.  This would drop the unemployment rate in half by itself!  As long as us boomers need to work to stay off of Medicaid, the job market will stay a buyer's one.

    If we were to place wind generators every quarter-mile along every median strip of every interstate highway in the country (and PV modules in between them), there would be no unemployment at all, other than the structural minimum.

    Let's ensure that we have a positive recovery, and invite capital to come along or face being taxed into oblivion.  There are many companies out there just waiting for some stimulus funding if capital won't provide it.

    Otherwise, we are just kicking the unsustainability can down the road.  Or off a cliff.

    "It's certainly no time to listen to blue dogs and Republicans who express more concern about federal deficits than out-of-work citizens."-Meteor Blades

    by jcrit on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 10:49:35 AM PDT

  •  As an unwavering supporter of Obama I say this (6+ / 0-)

    with some trepidation - our President is blessed with great luck too (besides near perfect instinct).

    The Crash was perfectly timed in Sep/Oct, Bernacke was the right guy at the Fed, quantitative easing was the medicine we needed, and we will have a robust recovery in 2010-11.

    I look forward to your second term, Mr. President.

    "The way to see by faith is to shut the eye of reason." - Thomas Paine

    by shrike on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 10:52:34 AM PDT

    •  yeah i thought about this too (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Phoenix Woman, writerkirk, FistJab

      he has great timing

      •  He has almost prefect timing indeed (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        scamperdo

        Remember his stock buying advice?? IT WAS ON MARCH 5TH. the stocks started going up 40% on MARCH 9TH. Bloomberg had a big story about it a month back. He is one lucky if not genius MFer. Warren buffet called the stock bottom in oct and said people should buy it--Bad advice from buffet.

        Here is his advice video on march 5th:

        if the embed doesn't show up here is the link:
        http://www.youtube.com/...

        If you can't drink a lobbyist's whiskey, take his money, sleep with his women and still vote against him in the morning, you don't belong in politics.Jess Unruh

        by FistJab on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 04:07:09 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Timing of the crash: preceded Obama by a year (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      scamperdo

      The recession officially began in the last quarter of 2007. Housing was in a nosedive. All hell was about to break loose.

      Yes, the September/October 2008 meltdown probably helped Obama -- when combined with McCain's incompetent campaign. And in this sense the timing was fortuitous. McCain never recovered from his gaffes at that time, and even his Hail Mary nomination of Palin backfired in the end.

      But it was fundamentally the turn to recession at the end of 2007 -- and convincing evidence that Bush's economic policy had screwed us royally -- that doomed the GOP both in Presidential and Congressional races.

      "Getting (re)elected is politicians' only true moral imperative."

      by zackamac on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 06:12:04 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  With all due respect... (0+ / 0-)

    ...no one can predict our way out of this mess.  There are way too many unknowns and the situation is unprecedented.  Human psychology is an enormous unknown.

    The employed are the new rich.

    by dov12348 on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 10:56:37 AM PDT

  •  duh (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bigchin, dark daze

    of course there's a recovery from near-collapse which was only averted by the bank bailouts and stimulus packages.

    that recovery from near-collapse makes for some nice trends though!

    it's ironic to see this diary at the top of the rec list when all recent reports, including from krugman, indicate more stress on banks and the need for more bailouts and stimulus when unemployment exceeds 10%.

    when are you guys going to stop the economy cheerleading?  it's not helpful for obama to give hope and then dash it later....

    •  Krugman says +GDP in Q3, iirc. n/t (7+ / 0-)

      "When the going gets tough, the tough get 'too big to fail'."

      by New Deal democrat on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 11:01:34 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  and he said this too: (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DeeDee001, bigchin, newpioneer, dark daze

        At the time, some of us warned about what might happen: if unemployment surpassed the administration’s optimistic projections, Republicans wouldn’t accept the need for more stimulus. Instead, they’d declare the whole economic policy a failure. And that’s exactly how it’s playing out. With the unemployment rate now almost certain to pass 10 percent, there’s an overwhelming economic case for more stimulus. But as a political matter it’s going to be harder, not easier, to get that extra stimulus now than it would have been to get the plan right in the first place.

        http://www.nytimes.com/...

        My bold.

        And then of course we have Herbert saying what you guys are doing is "mumbo jumbo"...

        Economists say that the recession may end sometime this year, but the unemployment rate will continue to climb. That’s not a recovery. That’s mumbo jumbo.

        http://www.nytimes.com/...

        •  No (+GDP) = No (+employment). (7+ / 0-)

          +GDP is a prerequisite to employment growth.

          The unemployment situation is awful.  Just as it was during the New Deal, but during the New Deal the awful economy started to get less awful.

          What do you suggest we call a period of +GDP growth that hasn't led to emmployment growth yet?

          "When the going gets tough, the tough get 'too big to fail'."

          by New Deal democrat on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 11:19:20 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  what do i call it? (6+ / 0-)

            i call it a jobless recovery where the rich get richer and the jobs go overseas.

            wake up.

            •  "Jobless recovery" is fair. (7+ / 0-)

              I also agree that the bank bailouts have served to make the rich (relatively) richer.  I'm not sure if the jobs going overseas will continue if the severe downturn in global trade continues.

              "When the going gets tough, the tough get 'too big to fail'."

              by New Deal democrat on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 11:27:33 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  bank bailouts saved the economy (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                newpioneer

                it is well known that we'd be utterly fucked if that hadn't happened so your bringing that up is a red herring.

                your point about severe downturn accomplishes 2 points with me:

                1. it seems to undermine the idea that the "recovery is on the horizon"
                1. i agree, the days of people buying stupid cheap shit at walmart are over for the most part and so we are in agreement that job outsourcing in manufacturing will be strained but in other sectors the bosses are moving every goddamned job overseas that CAN be shipped overseas.
                •  And if they do that, and the price of fuel goes (0+ / 0-)

                  .... up again due to market speculation/manipulation, those cheap hard goods they try to export back in to this country for our consumption,  suddenly go up in price because nobody can afford them.  Then the price of those goods crashes because they can't be sold.  Unless they're a must have item, a necessity, not a luxury.

                  Scratching head as to why you seem to have this bug up your butt.

                  Yes, the energy markets in CA were manipulated to create the ENRON crisis, but it was done by the Republicans bullshitting the CA state legislature to rewrite the utility energy regulations and conning the public that "creating competition" was good for keeping down prices. One of the biggest bullshitting legislative achievements in history, as it set the stage for the rolling blackouts and the public blaming Gray Davis and the recall election.  This was when McClintock was salivating that at last he was going to be governor, instead, he still hasn't and never will forgive Schwarzennegger for leaping into the race.

                  So you just can't blame any particular economists for anything because frankly, almost nobody listens to them anyway, people like to say they do, but.... they don't.   And while it's interesting to read what various economists have to say, it's a myth that they have much of a sway over the political processes.  (sorry, bonddad, sorry New Deal )  I would not put much stock (that's a pun, okay?) in what Krugman says, either.  They all operate on a series of assumptions but nobody can truly anticipate the future, only certain likelihoods.  What is going to happen is going to happen, irregardless of what you or I or anyone else makes up graphs and charts on out of current and past data.

                  I will tell you that I was seeing pretty gross manipulation of the energy markets last spring, summer, from what I was reading of the Republican political writers, which meant that the Republican politicians were having some sort of final orgy of speculation before the election of the other Party, because they knew that Joe Average only looks at the price at the pump and everything else is oblivious.  Now get a load of this, I have access to a pretty good expert on energy prices with a degree in economics, and even he did not see it that way, it really wanted to make me tear my hair out until I realized, oh yeah, "economist point of view."

                  If you're going to be upset with anyone you picked the wrong category.  Try the fracking bankers and financiers in cahoots with the political leaders.  Try the Senate.

                  And yes, I am rather a pessimist on this "recovery" and think it will be rather not so good at making more jobs unless there is a lot more creativity going on in DC.  But these folk are defining "recovery" using totally different criteria.

                  My state of CA is in a death spiral right now with the last of these neanderthal neocon Republicans holding the damned state hostage on the budget situation againafter totally fracking it up last year and leaving it 24 Billion in the hole.  Really, it is going to take several full blown disasters to get it across to the moronic general public that they can not keep doing these regressive taxes on the poor (sales taxes) and middle class (fees on everything ) and expect the state to keep functioning by giving the rich a tax cut every election.  

                  "Toads of Glory, slugs of joy... as he trotted down the path before a dragon ate him"-Alex Hall/ Stop McClintock

                  by AmericanRiverCanyon on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 09:08:03 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

    •  and what's with this NDD thing (0+ / 0-)

      can you not stand on your own recognizance bonddad?

      or is NDD your sockpuppet or something?

      •  NDD's been around longer than you have (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        AmericanRiverCanyon, lompe, FistJab

        So can the cheap slander.  Actually, go ahead with the cheap slander -- it shows you have no actual argument and so must resort to poo-flinging.

        Visit http://theuptake.org/ for Minnesota news as it happens.

        by Phoenix Woman on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 11:40:40 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  No (6+ / 0-)

        He and I write together sometimes.  

        Please explain why that is a bad thing.

        "You think you can intimidate me? Screw you. Choose your Weapon." Eliot Spitzer

        by bonddad on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 11:47:51 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  whatever (0+ / 0-)

          it just screams sub-blog on sub-dailykos with an sub-front pagers.

          look, i am just mad that you can't fess up to energy market manipulation in the face of enron making california black out.

          that glaring inconsistency makes all other prognostications moot.

          if you can explain your way out of that, i'll lay off a bit with the economy argument here because, after all, nobody knows what the fuck is going to happen.

          •  Did you request Krugman make the same (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            FistJab

            disclosure?  He argued the same thing as I did.  Doesn't that mean he's s corporate shill too?  Of course not.. because ... whatever

            "You think you can intimidate me? Screw you. Choose your Weapon." Eliot Spitzer

            by bonddad on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 01:07:59 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  too bad you can't just address the issue (0+ / 0-)

              did energy market manipulation occur in the enron/california scenario.

              if so, doesn't that mean that it's likely throughout the energy market.

              for example, is the energy market being gamed by financial firms who are parking oil in tankers?  

              of course you won't address this is because... whatever... you know i'm right.

              and you also damn well know that 12% unemployment is going to hurt people that have stock holdings... ahem.  and you know that when the stock market tanks at that point, when banks start to falter again, the economy at large is going to falter again.

              what was your disclosure about your holdings again?

              bueller?

              •  You can dish it out but not take it (0+ / 0-)

                How typical.  Next time you accuse someone of trying to manipulate the markets and request disclosure of their personal holdings make sure you apply it to all people who make the same prediction.  Krugman made the exact same call.  You obviously didn't ask him about his holdings.  Why?

                "You think you can intimidate me? Screw you. Choose your Weapon." Eliot Spitzer

                by bonddad on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 01:38:27 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

              •  And that was never the issue (0+ / 0-)

                You accused me of trying to manipulate the market for my stocks.  

                "You think you can intimidate me? Screw you. Choose your Weapon." Eliot Spitzer

                by bonddad on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 01:41:23 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  "my" stocks (0+ / 0-)

                  so you do have stocks.

                  ah, the cheerleading makes sense now.

                  lol... i was talking about energy market manipulation, not attempting to manipulate to the benefit of your stock holdings.

                  look man, i don't want this fight, i just won't sit idly by while rightish dogma is touted as something that democrats should believe in.

                  energy market manipulation has been proven beyond a shadow of doubt with the enron/california situation... just admit it.

                  •  You started this fight (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    FistJab

                    How passive aggressive of you.  

                    Next time, have the guts to either admit when your crap gets called or don't start anything.

                    "You think you can intimidate me? Screw you. Choose your Weapon." Eliot Spitzer

                    by bonddad on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 02:37:16 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  too bad you can't address the point (0+ / 0-)

                      there's nothing passive aggressive about me challenging you on your holdings, your stupid ad nauseum fake fight with MB on the direction of the economy (MB said his writings have nothing to do with you BTW), and your stance on energy market manipulation.

                      i was direct and to the point so i'm not sure what crap got called?! strange line of argument.  you must be attempting some sort of reverse psychology or such.

    •  I recall you wanted me to dislose my stock (10+ / 0-)

      holdings when I wrote that inflation was not an issue.  A week later Krugman made the same comment.  Did you ask him for the same disclosure?  

      "You think you can intimidate me? Screw you. Choose your Weapon." Eliot Spitzer

      by bonddad on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 11:23:57 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  He has no real argument, just poo-flinging (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        FistJab

        As he just demonstrated.

        Visit http://theuptake.org/ for Minnesota news as it happens.

        by Phoenix Woman on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 11:41:10 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Hey bonddad, can I ask you a question (0+ / 0-)

        about something you wrote in another one of your diaries, if you dont mind? In your June 15th diary, you write:

        3.) The deficit/debt picture is downright ugly.  I haven't delved into this in a lot of detail, but even a cursory look indicates we'll be skirting some pretty serious limits.  Currently, total debt stands at 81.25% ($11.375 trillion in total debt/$14 trillion in nominal GDP).  According to CBO projections we're looking at the following deficits for the next four years: $1.845 trillion, $1.379 trillion, $970 billion and $658 billion.  Looking at those numbers I don't see how we're going to avoid a 100% debt/GDP ratio by the time this is done.  The possibility of that going higher is pretty high.

        I guess what I dont get is why the falling deficit would be a bad thing. Because it increases the debt/GDP ratio? Or did I misread that? Sorry, dont much about economics, but was just wondering about that.  

  •  So 2012 will be the year of full recovery (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Phoenix Woman, jj32, Elise, greenearth, FistJab

    18 months until full stim pay out + bush tax cuts expiration

  •  The cavalry is coming (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    tmo, jamesia, dark daze, writerkirk, FistJab

    but half the settlers are dead. Way to go cavalry!

    "be a loyal plastic robot boy in a world that doesn't care" - Frank Zappa

    by Unbozo on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 11:02:14 AM PDT

  •  stats and numbers mean absolutely nothing (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gooserock, DeeDee001, deepsouthdoug, Cliss

    The economy is so complex, and the causes and effects of our current economic depression are so complex and intertwined, that statistics don't mean or prove anything.  Numbers and statistics and rates - and rates of rates - and rates of rates of rates - are too easily manipulated (even unintentionally) or picked and chosen to have any real significance.  For any statistic that shows the economy is "improving" there are 1,000 that show it's not.  A change in the decline of the rate of the cumulative increase in the average of the gross growth rate for the lagging indicators of blah blah blah simply does not have any objective meaning with respect to defining or describing the current economy.  Yes - I contend that such stats are utterly meaningless.  Remember, the Bush Administration had all kinds of great statistics that showed the economy was doing wonderfully, even when it was clear that it was quickly crashing, Wall Street was collapsing, and people's lives were getting worse, financially speaking.  The Democrats had stats that showed the economy was bad and we needed "change" (would Obama use those same statistics now?).  Bottom line: any numerical statistic meant to imply a description of the current quality of the economy is not only meaningless, it's disingenuous by default.

    While there is no way to numerically define it, the economy is "good" when the vast majority of people are earning enough money so that they can pay for their basic needs (home, food, transportation, utilities, etc.).  The more extra money such people have (to save or spend), the better the economy is doing.  

    I think drawing arbitrary lines in the sand is pointless, especially since nobody wants to say the economy is bad as that alone sounds pessimistic and shows a lack of confidence in the economy which may make it worse (this is why everyone insists on calling the current depression a "recession" even though it's a depression by any realistic meaning of the word).  After all, wouldn't it be presidential malpractice for Obama to call this a "depression"?  Aside from not wanting to scare people, the Bush Administration called it a "recession" so if Obama were to call it a "depression" it would imply things have gotten worse on his watch (and they have, but that doesn't mean it's necessarily his fault).

    I don't think America will be able to recover from this depression.  We've crossed the point of no return, and within the next 2 years the federal government will be bankrupt and unable to get any credit.  After hyperinflation, the dollar will be practically worthless, and the federal government will collapse as a result.  I'm not saying this because I have a problem with "Obama's spending" ... Bush spent more, and for bad reasons with bad intentions (Iraq, etc.).  If any one person is to blame for the impending collapse of America it is Bush.  After his first term I was saying it would take 20 to 30 years for the country to recover from his administration - and that was before 4 more years of his stupidity and the collapse of the housing markets, mortgage backed securities, and credit default swaps, etcetera.

    So, aside from being meaningless, any statistic proffered to show improvement in our economy is wrong.  

    •  I Still Give Reagan Much More Credit. The Reason (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Kentucky DeanDemocrat, bigchin

      Bush was able to do what he could is fundamentally because of the power and wealth Reagan began transferring to the top to buy off regulation and in other ways get us into position to run another casino economy.

      It was Reagan who taught us to minimize upper end progressive taxation, and he and his general Republican revolution that taught us to deregulate trade, to tear down that New Deal wall that defended broadcast news against the profit environment, draw down anti-trust enforcement, expand the military economy without regard to threats, and on and on.

      I don't have the training to know if America will collapse, however bad that might mean, but I'll agree the American people are leaving the company of 1st world citizens for good.

      Bush did take the final actions that tipped over many of these rows of dominoes, so I do give him more credit than I give Reagan for defeating the Soviet Union.

      Reagan however did win the Cold War--it's just that the nation he did defeat was the United States of America.

      We are called to speak for the weak, for the voiceless, for victims of our nation and for those it calls enemy.... --ML King "Beyond Vietnam"

      by Gooserock on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 11:29:47 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  yeah... (0+ / 0-)

        but Reagan alone wouldn't have destroyed America, i don't think.  It took Bush, and only a Bush with the ability to invoke 9-11 to get whatever he wanted to push through his agenda.  Bush wouldn't have been 1/100th as horrible for America if there had been no 9-11.  We destroyed ourselves, but "the terrorists" caused us to do it.  

        I'm not sure how bad it will be if and when the US collapses.  Things might actually get better.  If the 50 states had a neutral playing field on which to compete, then they will become actual laboratories of freedom, each competing with the others for jobs, citizens, etc.  The federal government has forced itself into every possible realm of life so that no one state can be all that different from another.  Some states might decide to allow decriminalization of drugs and/or prostitution (end crime and increase tax revenue), and they can only do that if the federal government is gone.  How great would it be if the states could truly compete with each other over freedoms and liberties?  

        The collapse might be quite nonviolent and not lead to total anarchy, especially with most state governments still intact.  We'll have to see.  But it's going to happen.  We will not recover from this depression.  

        •  You should (0+ / 0-)

          be a guest on the Glenn Beck Show,altho you would be the calm one on the set.
          He is saying the same things...ie. the collapse is coming,the fed govt has gone crazy,the states need to take control..ect.
          And his audience is stocking up on guns for the anarachy you predict that will occur on June 27,2011.

          The END is COMING!! REPENT!!

      •  Don't forget... Reagan did all that (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Kentucky DeanDemocrat

        with a LOT of help from elected Democrats.

        "History is a tragedy, not a melodrama." - I.F.Stone

        by bigchin on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 11:55:33 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Yes we are all... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      FistJab

      Doomed...Doomed...Doomed...Doomed...Doomed...Doomed...Doomed...Doomed...Doomed...Doomed...Doomed...D oomed...Doomed...Doomed...Doomed...Doomed...Doomed...Doomed...Doomed...Doomed...Doomed...Doomed...Do omed...Doomed...Doomed...Doomed...Doomed...Doomed...Doomed...Doomed...Doomed...Doomed...Doomed...Doo med...Doomed...Doomed...Doomed...Doomed...Doomed...Doomed...Doomed...Doomed...Doomed...Doomed...Doom ed...Doomed...Doomed...Doomed...Doomed...Doomed...Doomed...Doomed...Doomed...Doomed...Doomed...Doome d...Doomed...Doomed...Doomed...Doomed...Doomed...Doomed...Doomed...Doomed...Doomed...Doomed...Doomed ...Doomed...Doomed...Doomed...Doomed...Doomed...Doomed...Doomed...Doomed...Doomed...Doomed...Doomed. ../snark

      Obama - Change I still believe in

      by dvogel001 on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 01:39:01 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  If We Can't Have Another New Deal, a "Big Deal" (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    3goldens

    is better than a raw deal.

    Though I think the emerging economy has ways of giving average citizens both at the same time.

    We are called to speak for the weak, for the voiceless, for victims of our nation and for those it calls enemy.... --ML King "Beyond Vietnam"

    by Gooserock on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 11:21:11 AM PDT

  •  As always (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Phoenix Woman, Rogneid, FistJab

    an excellent job. Sitting my mother down to read it.

    Socialist. Fascist. Communist. Teabagging. It's gonna be a long four years.

    by niteskolar on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 11:30:04 AM PDT

  •  you totally (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Superskepticalman, Aeolus, pletzs

    Bondad you make a HUGE assumption.  You assume just because we bottom, we then must start to recover.  I see NOTHING that supports that.

    I see that we may be bottoming yes, I see NOTHING that shows we will not just flounder there though.

    New reality, we as a country and society will never get back to where we were.

    (regarding the bank mess) They want to cure the patient but not deal with the disease.

    by dark daze on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 11:30:41 AM PDT

    •  oh and Bondad (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Aeolus

      we dont live in a bubble

      http://www.reuters.com/...

      Sorry mainstreat is always ahead of ivory tower forecast, we knew well before the eggheads that we went into a recession, and we know damn well now too, that we are no where near close to any type of meaningful recovery.

      Your cherry picked charts and happy talk arent selling.

      (regarding the bank mess) They want to cure the patient but not deal with the disease.

      by dark daze on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 11:34:53 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  When I see these graphs (6+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DeeDee001, Cliss, xaxado, dark daze, GeeBee, noclue

    I compare them to a stock index where it has many turn ups then falters on it's way down.

    One thing the graphs don't put on there is how many foreclosures a month we are having. I disagree that unemployment is lagging indicator. In fact in order to boost us out of the last recession, it all had to be debt stimulated. Next the unemployment number was adjusted to account for a new life death model that somehow managed to zap 220,000 people from the newly unemployed last month. No new jobs. A green shoot measurement. No body rehiring.

    It's a consumer economy. Let me know when the consumers are consuming out of cash not credit and business aren't replenishing depleted inventories. If you go back through the depression, indicators turned up when inventory ran to it's bare bones. I'm sure there was plenty of "right around the corners" then.

    Why would Chase suddenly increase it's minimum payment 150% in the last few days on their customers with high credit scores? They have economists also. When you have 10,000 foreclosures a day, something is getting ready to give and it isn't the recession unless it's giving way to something far worse. They also have a huge backlog they haven't processed yet. Still we are record highs. They paid back their TARP but at what cost to their capital?

    If there is no consumer recovery (increasing disposable income via wages and availability of jobs that pay somewhat better than the minimum) , then would someone please tell on what basis this economy would have a sustained recovery on?

    Bottom? What Bottom?.

    by Dburn on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 11:35:55 AM PDT

  •  it amazes me (8+ / 0-)

    it really amazes me that we have things like CA going bankrupt, really and truly broke, and people think stupid charts mean anything.

    Where in your charts does it show for our largest state going broke?

    IOU's  are you kidding me.

    (regarding the bank mess) They want to cure the patient but not deal with the disease.

    by dark daze on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 11:37:16 AM PDT

    •  Rising GDP needs to come first. (4+ / 0-)

      And as for California:

      If you all hadn't kicked out Gray Davis, you'd be a lot better off.  He'd crafted a plan to pay off the huuuuuuuggggge debt that was Darrell the Car Thief Issa's pretext for recalling him, but you guys threw him out before he could implement it.  Instead Ahnuld came in and cut taxes, praying that the real estate bubble wouldn't burst while he was in office.  Oops.

      Visit http://theuptake.org/ for Minnesota news as it happens.

      by Phoenix Woman on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 11:45:05 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  do you enjoy spamming this diary? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Rogneid, FistJab

      or do you just need a hobby?

      A song about life
      Why aren't you more like Gandhi? Why aren't I?

      by drache on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 11:53:28 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Here's where we diverge from the typical recovery (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      tmo, Odysseus, 3goldens, DeeDee001, Cliss

      California's unemployment rate is at 11.5%, and the tens of billions in cuts by state government will massively overwhelm the effects of the stimulus.

      This will be another big systemic shock, the type of event that shakes consumer confidence.

      Not to mention the loss of another 400,000 jobs in California's economy, as the massive cutbacks in state spending are multiplied through every sector, and the current crises in mortgages, foreclosures, construction, retail, transportation, manufacuturing and tourism all are exacerbated.

      None of the inflections on these graphs coincided with a meltdown of the economy of the largest state.

      There is a God, but he got an MBA. How else can you explain our world?

      by Aeolus on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 12:02:41 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I know unemployment is a lagging indicator (6+ / 0-)

    but where are the jobs?

    What jobs will replace those that have been lost?

    Things may recover for those of you who are still gainfully employed, but what about those of us who aren't?

    There can be no real recovery without jobs.

    There are many things that need doing, but no one is starting businesses or hiring people to do them.

    Until that happens -- with jobs for ALL classes of workers: disabled, older, women, high-school dropouts AND advanced degree holders in all disciplines -- this isn't going to work out no matter how much the Dow goes up or how many charts show that things are getting better.

    I don't like the doom and gloom, but I haven't had a job in almost three years, and I know I'm not the only one. What are we supposed to do in this so-called recovery? And please don't say start a business, because there are very few people who are suited to being a business owner and very little financing out there if you don't have your own money.

    It just looks like a brief upturn before things come completely crashing down.

    "The difference between the right word and the almost-right word is like the difference between lightning and the lightning bug." -- Mark Twain

    by Brooke In Seattle on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 11:44:13 AM PDT

  •  The iceberg the LEI can't possibly reflect: (8+ / 0-)

    California is going to go bankrupt in about 4 weeks.  600,000 state workers will be unemployed all at once.  Work on state contracts will cease, throwing hundreds of thousands more out of jobs.   There is no evidence of any plan in the works that can prevent this.  (It sure as hell isn't going to be the train wreck we euphemistically call a state government here in Cali.)

    And a number of other states are in similar dire straits.  Maybe not within 4 weeks of running out of cash, but headed there.

    Unless somebody conjures up a way to prevent California, and likely, OR and MI, to name 2 more, from going belly-up, the green shoots Bonddad is highlighting are going to be swamped by a tsunami of unemployment.

    War crimes will be prosecuted. War criminals will be punished. And it will be no defense to say, "I was just following orders." -- George W. Bush, May 17, 2003

    by Simian on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 11:45:15 AM PDT

  •  Sorry but (4+ / 0-)

    if I look at the rising gasprices, credit card companies raising minimum payments and Healthcare reform being fought so hard, while the economy is in a fragile state,  I don't see this country going anywhere but down the drain.

    These big corporations keep trying to milk the last drop out of the american people, without regards to the economic state or future of our country.

    It just boggles my mind, do these people that run these corporations have lost all sense of social responsability?

  •  So let me get this right (4+ / 0-)

    If the recent trend is sustained for a couple more months, and if the stock market also begins to show suustained recovery, I can start planning my retirement in three years -- assuming I don't get fired in the interim because employment is a lagging indicator or don't face a catastrophic health issue for which my insurance company might deny coverage or the devil doesn't take my mind away.

    Is this good news?

    "Getting (re)elected is politicians' only true moral imperative."

    by zackamac on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 11:47:15 AM PDT

  •  Very, very, very anecdotal (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    New Deal democrat, FistJab

    four months ago we were working 32 hours a week, after cutting to the point where any more would make us no longer viable.

    We're not only back at 40, but the workload is insane with new orders.  Some of our lines (based on construction and DIYers) are projecting highest volume ever.  Now much of this is due to very aggressive new contracts, but we've gone from crickets to jackhammers in almost no time flat.

    I don't expect many more to have seen this, but at least I can say my job isn't in doubt anymore.

    •  Just as anecdotally (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      207wickedgood, FistJab

      I was in a local mailboxes etc type place yesterday.  Asked the owner how business was.  He said over the winter it was absolutely d-e-a-d but in the last few months had picked up a lot.

      "When the going gets tough, the tough get 'too big to fail'."

      by New Deal democrat on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 12:10:11 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  more anecdotes (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        New Deal democrat

        I know a lot of people in I.T. at the FedEx division that has a big presence in Akron. There were big layoffs there a few months ago but the ones I've been in contact with already have new jobs.

        A largish local bank in Cleveland had big layoffs over the fall and winter. An I.T. contractor I knew there got called back this week.

        My business was rather dry from about Dec 08 through maybe Apr 09. I'm really busy now, and I didn't lower my prices.

        It's not all positive. But nobody I know is doing worse than in the fall, and quite a few are doing better. So from here it looks like the bottom might have been February or March.

  •  Thanks for the forecast at the end (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Kestrel228, bigchin

    Its very encouraging news overall.

    Do you have a guess as to when we might see positive GDP growth?

    What impact will good or bad health care reform have on the overall economic picture?

    How about energy prices?  Here in our state, we're finally getting public utilities pricing back under control.  Just found out our gas bill will be almost half what its been the last 2-3 yrs.  Won't that also have a positive impact?

    I ask these questions because it seems people are cutting spending, not because of a hangover from too much credit, but from hidden inflation in energy, health care, etc.

    Private health insurers always manage to stay one step ahead of the sheriff - Sen. Sherrod Brown

    by Betty Pinson on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 12:22:47 PM PDT

  •  Nevertheless, We Have Many Jackasses, (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    FistJab

    some even on the left, braying about "the jobless recovery".  Why not give the recovery a chance to start, before judging?

    John Boehner decrys the lack of jobs, just confirming my estimate of him as one of the most cynical and dishonest politicians ever.

  •  Don't fight the LEI's (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    FistJab

    Everytime they turn up, the economy is sure to turn up.  That's doesn't mean employment will bounce back up as fast but it means we are on the road to recovery.  Frankly, I don't think the banks are as screwed as many thought.  The reason is that they won't sell their supposedly "toxic assets" simply because they don't think it's toxic.  Something is coming.

    How about some real change?

    by noofsh on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 12:27:23 PM PDT

  •  Kosscaks are a fundamentally a pessimisstic lot. (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    askew, dvogel001, Fury, BoxNDox, FistJab

    As evidenced particularly the diaries and comments (less so on front page stories).  It's depressing to come around here on lots of days.  

    When DKos is more pessimisstic than professional pessimist Roubini, you know that the members here are whack.

    I think many here still hunger for "nationalizaion" of banks and are therefore eager to have the economy suck as a means to that goal.  And/or they  despise Geithner and Summers for whatever misguided irrational reasons, and don't want to afford them any credit for any recovery.

  •  I have now idea who is right... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    3goldens, FistJab

    ...but I'm grateful that multiple perspectives are being presented.  I encourage Bonddad, NDD, and others to keep up the good work!

    "What are Americans still buying? Big Macs, Campbell's soup, Hershey's chocolate and Spam-the four food groups of the apocalypse." Frank Rich

    by mrclean on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 01:08:09 PM PDT

  •  I wish I could be optimistic. (7+ / 0-)

    Yes, I get that according to the usual economic standard unemployment is a lagging indicator. What I don't get is why that isn't the standard not an 'indicator'. If the last thing to recover is employment shouldn't that be the determining factor? But that aside, I appreciate that you used the last three recessions to make the point. They are the ones to choose,  the lag time has been increasing, and the recovery for pretty much everyone except the top percentile has been getting shallower with every recession for those recessions.

    We've spent the last thirty years cutting the legs out from under the middle class in good 'economic' times and bad. This recession/depression has been devastating for an already battered working class. It isn't just the unemployment figures. It is that a large percentage of those working aren't working enough or for enough to keep up. Nor is there any evidence that when the employment 'recovery' strolls around that situation is going to change.

    Then there is the strain on local and state governments, an ever increasing federal debt, and the continued obsequious actions of the federal government toward the banks and Wall Street.  I fear that little in the type of recovery  you are seeing will  mean anything that feels like a recovery for the majority of the country. Oh, sure  there might be only 3 people for every job available. But will the jobs pay well enough to justify the student loans? Will they provide enough security so that people won't worry about a big house or car repair? Will the states be able to pay the teachers and fund the universities and provide services for the disabled?

    My problem is that for too long we have used economic indicators that don't measure the economy for the majority of Americans. I'm not saying that the indicators you cite don't effect them. I'm saying that effect is shallow and distant and sometimes glancing. Those indicators are considered important because they have a great effect on the top, not the middle and bottom. The ones that effect them are 'lagging' and/or just don't count at all. We have stripped most of what measures the cost of living from the cost of living because well. We have stopped counting those that give up.

    Unfortunately you and I will have to disagree about the definition of recovery.  What is on the horizon is certain economic factors are getting better and may continue to do so. That does not a recovery make. Without increased employment there is no recovery. Period. Without that decrease of unemployment going to good jobs with middle class pay and benefits there is no recovery. Your own description of the 'recovery' you envision makes clear that you don't imagine this coming soon- 'high unemployment for at least another year and a half.'  So for those of us who don't think a recovery that leaves out workers and a large percentage of the population is a recovery,  Recovery is Not On the Horizon. Believe me I wish it were.

    •  Thanks for taking the time borregopass (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wsexson, neroden

      I wish I had the kind of composure necessary for such an even handed response.  Unfortunately the opening two words "Doom sells." put me in such a fit of rage that I am capable only of barely coherent ranting.

      Doom sells - like we invented the outsourcing, lowering rages, debt bubble, oil dependence / war / peak, unemployment / reduced employment globalized nightmare that is the policies of the last 30 years!!!!!

      Doom sells - like the staggering poverty, incarceration and illiteracy / ignorance in this country is some kind of fucking invention of gleeful blog writers trying to get a few more reads!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

      Doom sells - like we crazy, kooky blog writers invented the shameful growing gap between American ultra-rich / corrupt politicians and the shit on working class!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

      Doom sells - of fuck it.  What sells is head up your ass, mindless diaries written by ignorant trusting fools.

  •  Shhh! Don't tell Krugman at the NYT! (0+ / 0-)

    He may get really upset that Obama's economic plan is working!

  •  That's a damn shame (2+ / 1-)
    Recommended by:
    pletzs, joshb
    Hidden by:
    FistJab

    Only an economic disaster will change our deformed economic system. Without disaster NOW, we're putting off a bigger one down the road. I hope you are wrong in your conclusion, but I fear you are correct.

  •  Doom sells very well... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    askew, Panurge, FistJab

    especially on the Rec'd list at DKos...

    Obama - Change I still believe in

    by dvogel001 on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 01:31:50 PM PDT

  •  Question about 1979-1980 (0+ / 0-)

    So was there a brief rebound in 1980 before the end of that year? You have green circles present in 1980 but then red ones in 1981. Can you explain that?

  •  Not to piss all over the positives, (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Fury

    The confirming turn up of LEI in May has moved both the 3 and 6 month trend of the LEI to positive territory.  This is a Big Deal.  Here is a graph, showing that since WW2,  every time there has been a significant (~2%) turn up in the 3 month average of the LEI, a recovery (in the sense of +GDP growth) has started immediately.  On a 3 month basis, LEI are now up exactly 2%.

    But "every other time," we weren't almost out of oil.

    Just saying.

    -5.88, -6.00 When the ELGIs are defeated, the GWOT is over. -- Richard Clarke

    by Porfiry on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 01:39:17 PM PDT

    •  Nor are we now almost out of oil. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Fury

      And if cap and trade works, we'll be leaving more of it in the ground rather than less as time goes on.

      Moderation in most things. Except Reactors. IFR forever!

      by billmosby on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 02:18:20 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Not almost out of oil (3+ / 0-)

      we're about half way (a trillion barrels left if I remember). We're at the end of increasing extraction of cheap oil.

      But yeah, that's about the only thing that worries me. Prices seem set to shoot up to 150+ dollars a barrel as soon as a recovery begins. Not much anybody can do except prepare for it as much as you can force congress to do and set the stage for everybody, including the private sector, to make the switch. Interesting times.

      Let the circular firing begin!

      by Grass on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 03:49:32 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Another leading indicator -- (7+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Aeolus, 3goldens, Fury, The Wizard, Cliss, xaxado, Wolf10

    the local Starvation Army retail store is holding a 50% off sale.  I'm 63, graduated from college during a recession, and have never seen anything vaguely like that before.

    Nonetheless, I'm willing to be optimistic, if somebody could just tell me what the next bubble will be in.  Our economy has been principally smoke, mirrors, bullshit and brokering for decades now, so what will we be hyping next, in order to get the people back into buying $150 designer tennies and jeans on credit?

    "Fascism should more properly be called corporatism because it is the merger of state and corporate power." -- Benito Mussolini

    by enhydra lutris on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 01:45:07 PM PDT

  •  Well reasoned (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    New Deal democrat

    and it is worth noting that many things are positive feedback. As the economy turns around, jobs will become more plentiful. As jobs become more plentiful, people will buy more. As they buy more, the economy will improve, jobs will become more plentiful, people will buy more, et cetera.

    Searching for intelligent life on the Internet. Please post a URL.

    by blue aardvark on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 02:07:59 PM PDT

  •  You and others (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    pletzs, disrael, NBBooks, Cliss, Wolf10

    practicing the supersititon we call "american economic theory" just dont get it.

    There are ONLY two relevant indicators of the american economy. TWO.  REAL unemployment rate and median wage. Thats it. Thats all. Period.

    Ill let all my unemployed friends (including myself btw but more by choice) know that they should cheer up.. wall street is going to be rolling in (our) money again soon.

    •  Reread the diary. Bonddad isn't (0+ / 0-)

      insulting you. Don't pretend he is.

      Let the circular firing begin!

      by Grass on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 03:37:16 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I wasnt implying that (0+ / 0-)

        and bonddad is one of only two economists in america i consider scientists rather than witch doctors.

        But even they practice this theology that random statistical number X represents the "health of the economy". Economists tend to be feudalists at heart (the industry is after all structured to serve the plutocratic elite) and misunderstand the very purpose of an economy. That is, to serve the people who live within its influence, rather than the other way around.

        There are only two relevant economic indicators. Period.

  •  Re: Recovery. (3+ / 0-)

    As long as we are losing jobs around 500,000 per month, there will be no recovery.  

    ***   Don't be fooled.  ***

  •  Be wary of historical 'precedents' (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    The Wizard

    Be wary of these arguments that "historically 9/10 of these indcators" predict the future.  These indicators have been measured for what?  Fifty years, maximum?  How many recessions were there in that time frame?  It is an extremely small sample size.  Further, how many are there that are good parallels for this one?  Probably zero.  

    Extrapolating all those positive trends forwards based on historical 'precedents' is quite the assumption.  So manufacturing is back up above 42.  Will it continue to rise?  Why?  If it does, will it necessarily plateau at as high a value as it was before the recession?  Why can't it reach a steady-state at a lower value?  Because it didn't the other times?

    Yes, GDP growth will improve.  But it was worse than negative 5% annualized for the last two quarters.  Suppose it spikes up to a whooping 0.5%... whoopee.  It will likely take many years, even a decade, to get those jobs back.  What if the 'recovery' is small and short-lived and based on unsustainable energy prices, triggering an echo recession in another 2-3 years?  

    Nobody knows what will happen, but I am strongly suspicious of any talk of a 'recovery', unless your definition of a recovery is bandaging yourself up after falling off a cliff.  An incredibly large bubble just burst, bigger than anything in the historical data - common sense would suggest that this 'recovery' will take quite a while, and could even be illusory.  

    •  If the truth be told, the widening gap in income (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      fumie, neroden, New Deal democrat

      and assets between rich and poor is probably more important to our economic well being than any of these quoted historical statistical time series measures. I was born a few years before the "baby boom." Every year things got better. Even in the 60's, people had rising expectations in spite of Nam. Things kind of went to shit in the late 70's and early 80's. After that, there were good times and bad times, but the good times were not that great for most people. Now, the boomers look at their kids and wonder what the future holds for them.

      Oh Barry, they are turning Health Care into an Actuary's wet dream.

      by fredlonsdale on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 07:21:25 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  No matter who says what I intend to - (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bigchin

    remain light on my feet and invest my retirement account according to a simple 200 and 50 day moving average - they both cross down below the current S&P 500 and I'm out. Likewise for gold and the U.S. Dollar - I'll be short or long on both the GLD and DXDDX funds according to the same moving averages. Like someone above has suggested - there are just too many variables to predict economics based on only the fundamentals.

    peace

    WAR IS PEACE FREEDOM IS SLAVERY FOX NEWS IS JOURNALISM

    by FakeNews on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 04:07:07 PM PDT

  •  Anecdotal evidence, but typically accurate ... (7+ / 0-)

    I am a freelance marketing communications person. We are the first to go and the first to come back. The economy was beyond dreadful 12 months ago, but no one saw it yet. Starting about 60 days ago, it started to come back. I have some extremely high-profile corporate clients and they are cautiously moving into new markets. It's not the "devil may care" attitude with money that we saw 5 years ago. But, they're spending and investing in growth areas. I'm working on 3 totally different start-ups in 3 different market segments.

    On my end of things, it's competitive. But, if you've been around a while and you have a track record, the business is there. In the case of all three start-ups, we're busting ass to be up and running by February '10 -- and that's when they'll be hiring.

    Yes, I know it's anecdotal. But what I'm hearing from these people and their investors is all the same. They'd all rather innovate and use what money they have for a start-up than put it in the stock market or the bank for a 3% return.

    I'm not a Pollyanna. But, I'll tell you, it's better out there on the front end of the business chain than it has been in 2 years. I don't see all blue skies and butterflies, but the black storm clouds have certainly parted.

    Always be sincere, even if you don't mean it. - Harry S Truman

    by parker parrot on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 04:11:11 PM PDT

    •  Eye of the hurricane? n/t (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      forgore

      "History is a tragedy, not a melodrama." - I.F.Stone

      by bigchin on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 04:23:06 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Same here with my consulting biz (4+ / 0-)

      was way down 2nd half of last year, for past 60 days is way up - up even over 1st half of last year. And I consult for nonprofits, which typically lag forprofits in recovery, because of their dependence on charity and gov't funding from tax revenues.

      People are starting different, too - leveraging new media online to start entrepreneurial ventures for much less than before, exposing them to less risk and requiring less equity partnering to begin with (more and more are starting with 0% outside investment).

      People are looking at the way things were, and expecting a "recovery" to be going back to the same industries, same businesses, and same patterns.

      That's not the way it works. We're going to see new businesses, developed in new ways. A lot more sustainable energy start ups, for example, which will take talent and money and manpower away from some traditional manufacturing businesses and put them in new ones. A lot more online, virtual businesses and nonprofits. A lot more part time multiple gig-holding freelancers. More new, aggressive, lean competitors in what were considered mature, consolidated industries.

      New economic activity replacing old, rather than just the old bouncing back.

      One day posterity will remember, this strange era, these strange times, when ordinary common honesty was called courage. -- Yevgeny Yevtushenko

      by RandomActsOfReason on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 11:16:11 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  As much as I hope so... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    3goldens, Mike Peterson

    I believe that we are in for a hell of as lot more trouble than this diary digs in to. BUT I sure as hope I am wrong.

  •  Just wait till the consequences (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Odysseus, 3goldens, noclue

    of this begin to hit the fan.

    -6.75,-3.85 Truly, in history, truth should be held sacred at whatever cost.

    by Sagebrush Bob on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 05:48:30 PM PDT

  •  These charts and numbers (5+ / 0-)

    "proving" that recovery is on the horizon will, I fear, prove to be about as meaningless as when statistics lead sports bettors to bet up a favorite to double digits only to see that favorite get crushed.

    -6.75,-3.85 Truly, in history, truth should be held sacred at whatever cost.

    by Sagebrush Bob on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 05:52:17 PM PDT

  •  Bonddad or Matt Taibbi? (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Meteor Blades, bink, tmo, GeeBee

    It's clinically interesting that in all the comments to this gut-wrenching diary, there is not yet any mention of what can be considered the opposing view, as most recently laid out by Matt Taibbi in Rolling Stone: The Great American Bubble Machine. I think Taibbi's ending is an appropriate epithet for everyone that has recommended this diary.

    It's not always easy to accept the reality of what we now routinely allow these people to get away with; there's a kind of collective denial that kicks in when a country goes through what America has gone through lately, when a people lose as much prestige and status as we have in the past few years. You can't really register the fact that you're no longer a citizen of a thriving first-world democracy, that you're no longer above getting robbed in broad daylight, because like an amputee, you can still sort of feel things that are no longer there.

    But this is it. This is the world we live in now. And in this world, some of us have to play by the rules, while others get a note from the principal excusing them from homework till the end of time, plus 10 billion free dollars in a paper bag to buy lunch. It's a gangster state, running on gangster economics, and even prices can't be trusted anymore; there are hidden taxes in every buck you pay. And maybe we can't stop it, but we should at least know where it's all going.

    A conservative is a scab for the oligarchy.

    by NBBooks on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 07:04:25 PM PDT

  •  As many have said, I hope you're right (0+ / 0-)

    Those numbers and charts might as well be hieroglyphics to me. Just as long as people give this administration a chance to turn things around, I'll be satisfied.

  •  crap,you can throw up all the graphs u can find (0+ / 0-)

    But I'm a believer in what my own eyes see and I'm living out here and it ain't getting any better in my part of the woods--in fact about the best I can say is things are only getting worse more slowly now.

    You say that doom sells.

    I believe that there is equally a big market for upbeat economic news right now (government wants to modify the average citizens pessimism about the current economy believing that this might help us into a recovery) and some organizations and people will doing any contorting necessary to present some.

    •  Anecdote is no substitute for data (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Argyrios

      That is why the big picture matters.

      You can't see where the Sun went, looking out at sea level - so it looks like it'll never come back.

      Meanwhile, it's getting ready to rise right behind you.

      My anecdote contradicts yours, anyway - my web consulting biz was down 60% in q4 of 2008 - now it's up 300%. Many of my clients are folks I talked to 6 months ago, who are now ready to spend on increasing the efficiency and effectiveness of their communications, both within their organizations and without.

      Plus, my wife was hired for the first part-time job she applied for. She works in the nonprofit sector, and I consult for nonprofits, and nonprofits were affected even harder than forprofit businesses, because they depend on charity and government funding from tax revenues, so they are lagging indicators. The nonprofit sector is picking up right now.

      But I would not bet my future on my personal anecdotes, and I wouldn't recommend that anyone else do so.

      Data isn't everything, but it's better than no data.

      One day posterity will remember, this strange era, these strange times, when ordinary common honesty was called courage. -- Yevgeny Yevtushenko

      by RandomActsOfReason on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 11:08:52 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  but plenty of data showing just the opposite also (0+ / 0-)

        is out there. Some just cherry pick what data they want.

        •  Presenting major indicators, and then using them (0+ / 0-)

          to make a rational argument is not "cherry picking".

          Cherry picking would be ignoring historical trends that show that employment lags other recovery indicators, and focusing on current employment instead, to make sweeping statements.

          One day posterity will remember, this strange era, these strange times, when ordinary common honesty was called courage. -- Yevgeny Yevtushenko

          by RandomActsOfReason on Sun Jun 28, 2009 at 02:09:16 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  My question why a strong dollar (0+ / 0-)

    Isnt it wiser to have a weaker dollar to improve exports and therefore job creation?

    DONATE! McCain=Bush 3rd Term--US worst nightmare; Stop Republican obstructionism- Elect a Democratic Majority.

    by timber on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 09:55:48 PM PDT

  •  A lot of good information, but one major flaw (0+ / 0-)

    The underlying assumption of this entire analysis is that this recession is like the other post war recessions. This is a false assumption

    Other postwar recessions followed a pattern

    A)The economy was growing
    B)Inflation started to accelerate
    C)The Fed raised interest rates/tightened money supply, and the recession started
    D)When the Fed felt that inflation was under control. they would lower the interest rate and/or increase the money supply
    E)Pent up demand would result in growth

    This recession/depression was caused by an over leveraging of the entire economy, followed by a real estate bubble, which collapsed resulting in a financial panic.  Even when the Fed lowered interest rates to near 0, the effect on demand was minimal.  The entire system was over leveraged.

    We have not seen a financial panic in this country since the 30s.  If you really want to do a historical comparison, compare these last 2 years with 1929-31, or look at Japan after their bubble burst.  

    We have stepped back from the brink of a total, worldwide systemic collapse, but we haven't stepped back very far

  •  GDP shrinkage and employment growth (0+ / 0-)

    Has, in fact, been achieved in the past.  First, create many useless make-work jobs.  Pay for them by printing money, devaluing the currency.  If people lose faith in the money fast enough, the growth in employment happens but the GDP drops faster (in real terms, not nominal, obviously!).  Eventually, you end up with more and more people on the government payroll getting money which is worth less and less.  This appears to have happened in some of the Soviet-system countries.

    I point this out as a matter of completeness.

    I certainly don't think this is happening right now.  (Our currency is not devaluing nearly fast enough: as long as it retains value, even printing money and handing it to people increases the GDP, because people can spend the printed money on actual goods and services.  Seignorage is weird.)

    -5.63, -8.10. Learn about Duverger's Law.

    by neroden on Sun Jun 28, 2009 at 04:49:54 AM PDT

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