A race that Republicans really want to win this year and will crow about until the cows come home if they do is the New Jersey governor's race. The Northeast is an area that Republicans have been nearly shut out of over the last few years and are looking at this race for a rebirth. New Jersey is a state that leans strongly Democratic, going for Obama by 57%-42% and John Kerry by 53%-46%. Republican US Attorney Chris Christie holds between a six and 10 point lead over Corzine. If Christie wins this race, you know that Republicans will hold him up as a model for the resurgance of their party in 2010.
It is in President Obama's interest to campaign strongly and raise money for Corzine from now until election day. Obama is very popular in this state and he could very well help pull some Democrats back into Corzine's fold. Some recent polls show Corzine getting only around 62% of registered Democrats votes. If Corzine can get back to around 80%+ of Democrats, he likely wins in this Democratic state.
A similar situation occured in the 1977 New Jersey governors election. State Senator Republican Ray Bateman held a double digit lead over Democratic governor Brendan Byrne for almost all of the campaign. Bateman was highly unpopular for unstituting the state's first income tax. Through October, Bateman led Byrne by about five points until Byrne finally pulled even in the final week. Then President Jimmy Carter(who was still popular at this time) came to do a campaign rally for Byrne on election eve. The final poll after the rally showed that Byrne had taken a 44%-36% lead and went on to win the election by a wide 55%-41% margin. http://www.bluejersey.com/...
If Obama were to visit New Jersey and hold a big rally for Gov. Corzine the night before the election, I think Corzine would very likely pull this out.