Since Obama's inauguration , the unemployment rate has gone from around 7.5% all the way up to 9.5%. It is certainly not his fault, but people are starting to get very impatient with him. This rate can go higher until around October and then it has to start going down if Obama and Democrats want to get through the 2010 elections alive. The stimulus passed was WAY too small and it is almost certain that we will not be able to pass another one. If unemployment continues to rise to 10%, 10.5%, 11% into 2010, Democrats may as well start retiring so that they wont have to face the voters.
What the Obama administration needs to continue to be doing is to have a gun pointed at Fed Chairman Bernanke's head threatening him with not getting reappointed if he tries to tighten the money supply at all. Keeping interest rates at very low levels is key to a recovery, no matter what the threat of inflation is. Obama also needs to resist demand destroying budget cuts that many Republicans seem to want during this recession.
When it comes to politics, the economy always matters. Democrats can have a pretty good 2010 if the unemployment rate peaks in October at around 10.5% and then starts dropping to 10%, 9.5%, 9%, 8.5%, 8%, 7.5%, ect. by election day 2010. Right now, I am not confident that this will happen, but it needs to if we are to keep the House and not suffer losses in the Senate. In short, we need to see jobs being created again by this Fall.