A July 3 Gallup poll release was headlined the "Obama honeymoon continues." Gallup defines a presidential honeymoon as the number of consecutive months at the start of a new administration during which the president's job approval score remains above 55%.Since his inauguration, President Obama's approval score has never fallen below 55% and, with few exceptions, remained above 60%. As Gallup says, "if [Obama] can maintain ratings above 55% through the summer, his honeymoon will match the length of those for Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan" and will equal or be longer than those of most presidents since Richard Nixon.
But, in politics, as in physics, what goes up seems eventually to come down. And, so, Democrats and progressives must pay heed to two recent Quinnipiac polls indicating Obama's approval level had fallen to 45% in Ohio and 48% in Virginia, which could be canaries in the coalmine warning of future disasters. The most recent Gallup tracking survey also indicates that President Obama's national approval evaluation has sunk to 57%, close to falling below "honeymoon level." To sustain Obama's honeymoon will require the active support of the President's program from Congressional Democrats.
As we pointed out in our book, Millennial Makeover, the 2008 election marked the passage of the United States from an "idealist" to a "civic" political era, driven by the emergence of a large new civic generation, Millennials, born 1982-2003. During such eras most voters prefer unified rather than divided government. These fundamental changes in America’s attitudes toward government as well as the arrival of a new civic generation in the American electorate help explain much of the durability of President Obama’s positive job performance ratings. As indicated in the following table, during civic eras Americans have more positive attitudes toward political institutions and personalities.
% Agreeing that: | U.S. Public 1994 | U.S. Public 2009 | Millennials 2009 |
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"people like me don't have a say in what government does" | 54% | 51% | 46% |
"elected officials lose touch with people quickly" | 83% | 76% | 67% |
"elected officials care what people like me think" | 33% | 38% | 46% |
"government regulation of business usually does more harm than good" | 63% | 54% | 51% |
"when something is run by the government it's usually inefficient and wasteful" | 69% | 57% | 42% |
"government is really run for the benefit of all people" | 42% | 49% | 60% |
"federal government controls too much of our daily lives" | 69% | 55% | 48% |
According to these results from Pew research surveys conducted in both 1994 and 2009, the American public is now more positive, or at least less negative, about government and how it operates on each of these dimensions. America's newest civic generation, the Millennials, is driving these improvements in perceptions of government. The last time a civic generation, the GI Generation (born 1901-1924) dominated American life, in the 1940s and 1950s, sizable majorities held favorable attitudes toward government and other political institutions. This is likely to happen again as the entire Millennial Generation (only about 40% of whom were eligible to vote in 2008) comes of age politically.
The electorate also looks far different now than it did during much of the idealist era that is receding into history. From 1990 through 2004 the national party identification balance between Republicans and Democrats was fairly even. According to Pew, the largest Democratic advantage (9 percentage points) occurred in 1992 when Bill Clinton won the presidency; twice (1994 and 2002) the two parties were dead even. By contrast, since 2006 the Democratic advantage has steadily grown. It is now about 16 percentage points. Overall, a bit more than half of the electorate identifies with or leans to the Democrats while around a third say they are Republicans or lean to the GOP.
At the end of June, Gallup data indicated that 90% of all Democratic identifiers, 92% of liberal Democrats, 88% of moderate Democrats and 84% of conservative Democrats approved of the president's performance. Obama's marks remained very high, and if anything, increased in June among such key groups such as Millennials (73%), African-Americans (96%), and Hispanics (81%). Obama's support among the increased number of Democrats and Democratically oriented demographic groups provides a buffer for his approval scores that presidents in the recent idealist era did not have.
Let us hope Congressional Democrats, both leadership and rank and file, recognize these historical realities and partners with President Obama to pass legislation that will redeem his campaign promise to bring "change we can believe in." If they succeed, they will prosper together. If they fail, they will go down together.