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A lot to get to on this Tuesday, the last installment of the evening wrap-up for a little while (more on this later):

KY-Sen: McConnell As The Bunning-Slayer
An interesting read from Michael Lindenberger in Time Magazine today, even if all it does is confirm a lot of what we already knew. The bottom line: the one man most responsible for getting Jim Bunning out of the U.S. Senate was his fellow Kentuckian, Senator Mitch McConnell. Also of note: Trey Grayson does not have a clear primary despite Bunning's ouster. Rand Paul, a western Kentucky physician and the son of Congressman Ron Paul, sounds like a man who is likely to stay in the race. As an aside, the expected became confirmed yesterday, as Grayson dropped the "exploratory" appendage from his Senate committee and confirmed that he is in the race for good.

MN-Gov: Coleman Needs A Little Time, A Little Time To Think Things Over
The day after he finally conceded his Senate seat to Al Franken, the rumor mill ran rampant that Norm Coleman was a top-flight candidate to run for Governor of Minnesota. That may still happen, but Coleman's crew has now made it clear that it will not happen for quite a while. Saying that the former Senator needs a break after his post-election adventures, the word has now gone out that Coleman will not make any definitive plans on a gubernatorial bid until as late as March or April of 2010. That would seem, in the era of the perpetual election cycle, to be an awfully late entry point, but it would seem as if Team Coleman is convinced that they could raise the money and construct the necessary campaign infrastructure in a short period of time. The field for this race is still incredibly fluid, with what seems like half of the state legislature looking at the race.

NC-Sen: McIntyre Becomes Latest Democrat To Decline Burr Challenge
Usually, an incumbent with poor poll numbers draws political opponents like a bug zapper draws insects. Not so much in North Carolina, where Congressman Mike McIntyre became the latest Tar Heel State Democrat to decline a 2010 challenge to embattled GOP incumbent Richard Burr. McIntyre will seek re-election to his House seat, instead. On balance, this might actually work out for the best both ways: Democrats would have been hard-pressed to hold onto McIntyre's seat in the North Carolina 7th, and base Democrats might not have been enthusiastic about backing a conservative Dem for the seat. There are still a couple of prominent Democrats considering the challenge, including Sec. of State Elaine Marshall and former state Senator Cal Cunningham.

CA-10: Secretary of State Certifies Candidates For Special Election
The candidates are now official for the September 1st Special Primary Election to replace Ellen Tauscher, who resigned earlier this year to take a position in the Obama State Department. Five Democrats are officially in the field, and given that the district gave both Obama and Tauscher 65% of the vote last year, the winner is likely to come from their primary five weeks away. The Democratic quintet is comprised of (in alphabetical order): state Assemblywoman Joan Buchanan, state Senator Mark DeSaulnier, California Lt. Governor John Garamendi, former journalist and municipal investigator Adriel Hampton and Iraq War veteran Anthony Woods. The likely Republican opponent will be attorney David Harmer, who easily outraised the other GOP candidates in the field. The article by CQ points out that DeSaulnier, a restaurateur before heading into politics, became the first candidate on the airwaves this week.

SD-Gov: Democrats Get Top-Tier Candidate For Governor's Race
Now that popular Congresswoman Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin has closed the door on a gubernatorial bid, the Democrats probably got their next best option to agree to run: Scott Heidepriem, who leads the Democrats in the state Senate. Heidepriem, in all likelihood, will have a clear shot at the Republican nominee, which may have to emerge from a crowded primary, as there is no shortage of GOP bench players in a state like South Dakota.

NJ-Gov: Christie Leads By Fourteen Points, According to PPP
A sobering poll from PPP on the New Jersey Governors race, as the pollster gives Republican Chris Christie a 50-36 advantage over incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine. There is little there for Team Corzine to be thrilled about, as a visit from President Obama plus taking to the airwaves against Christie seems to have dented neither the Christie lead nor either candidate's favorability ratings. One note of hope, however: looking at some of the crosstabs (which PPP is always great about offering), we can see that the bulk of the "persuadable" voters picked Christie right now. Those that have already locked in their votes were considerably more likely to be liberal than either moderate or conservative.

NY-Mayoral: Bloomberg Outed As A Republican, Lead Cut in Half
This is a fun one for the pollster types and the political scientists to play with. A month ago, Quinnipiac did a trial heat between Michael Bloomberg, the Independent, and William Thompson, the Democrat. Bloomberg led by 22 points, and was over the 50% incumbent safety threshold. This month, the Q poll cited Bloomberg as running both as an Independent and a Republican. The result? Bloomberg leads Thompson, but by a much tighter margin: 47-37. Apparently, in deep-blue New York City, just being identified as a Republican will cost you a dozen points.

THE WRAP: "Vacation, All I Ever Wanted...Vacation, Had To Get Away"
Dry your tears, readers, but this will be the last daily installment of the Polling and Political Wrap-Up until Wednesday, August 12th. It is time for the Singiser Clan to load up the family truckster and go dancing across the U.S.A. like the mighty Griswolds (c'mon, admit it: you loved that movie). Enjoy the dog days of summer, and we'll meet again in two weeks.

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Tue Jul 28, 2009 at 07:40 PM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tips for the Go-Go's reference ... (4+ / 0-)

    Can regional Republicans' lips be sealed?

    The Republican brand: "Consequences, schmonsequences, as long as I'm rich"

    by D in Northern Virginia on Tue Jul 28, 2009 at 07:45:57 PM PDT

  •  and... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    mcfly, Steve Singiser

    the Foreigner reference.

    •  I'm Glad Someone Caught That... :) (0+ / 0-)

      That was quite a year for rock supergroup ballads. Foreigner's "I Want To Know What Love Is", right there with REO Speedwagon's "Can't Fight This Feeling".

      "You share your young with the wolves of the nation...
      Theres nothing left til you pray for salvation"
      Black Rebel Motorcycle Club "American X"

      by Steve Singiser on Tue Jul 28, 2009 at 08:19:09 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Please don't leave the dog tied to the bumper (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    mcfly, Steve Singiser, MTmofo
  •  FINE! Be that way. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    VA Breeze, wbayasIII, danmitch

    Enjoy your vacation.

    "Go well through life"-Me (As far as I know)

    by MTmofo on Tue Jul 28, 2009 at 07:52:15 PM PDT

  •  Haven't there only been like (0+ / 0-)

    three Democratic Governors in South Dakota's history?

  •  NC-SEN: Cal Cunningham is doing pretty well (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    nclefty, Steve Singiser

    at generating buzz.  I'm hearing a lot of chatter about him, and he certainly has a compelling story:

    In 2007, Cunningham was mobilized by the XVIII Airborne Corps and served as the senior trial counsel, Multi-National Corps Iraq.[15] In Iraq, he pioneered an effort with the U.S. Department of Justice to prosecute felony contractor misconduct and worked with the Major Procurement Fraud Task Force. He was lead counsel in the first court-martial of a contractor/civilian under the Uniform Code of Military Justice since 1968.[16] For his service in Iraq, Cunningham was awarded the Bronze Star Medal and the General Douglas MacArthur Leadership Award.

    (wikipedia)

    Punch a moose for us while you're gone.

    Someone is wrong on the Internet! To the Kosmobile!

    by socratic on Tue Jul 28, 2009 at 07:56:08 PM PDT

  •  Coleman needs to walk away (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Clarknt67

    What a stellar career.  In his only major win, he essentially beats a dead man, or at best a somewhat frail ancient warrior who entered the race barely a week before the vote.  And he only won by 50 thousand out of 2 million votes.  His two other big elections?  He lost to (first), a professional wrestler known best for wearing feather boas, and then to a comedian known best for drug humor and a somewhat effeminate man with a crippling inferiority complex.

    At least we can admit he's upholding the great political tradition of another great Minnesotan:  Harold Stassen.  

  •  Bloomberg (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    beemerr, Clarknt67

    It is not just Bloomberg being outed as a Repub.  Bill Thompson has sharpened his attacks in recent weeks and he is getting under Bloomberg's skin a little.  I think the combo have something to do with the tightening in the polls.

    •  Honestly, before this week (0+ / 0-)

      I hadn't even heard Thompson's name (and I live in NYC). Seems like Mike's been running for a year.

      I know nothing about Thompson.

      Defend Maine's Marriage Equality. Donate.

      by Scott Wooledge on Tue Jul 28, 2009 at 08:09:50 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Bloomberg--Thompson (0+ / 0-)

      I can only speak for the world I inhabit.  In finance, you are surrounded by economically conservative, socially liberal folks (like myself).  The traditional Northeastern republican who have been forced out of the Republican party.  I will be supporting Bloomberg as well as about 80%+ of my coworkers.  Again, this is a small subset of the New York population.

      •  Same where I live (0+ / 0-)

        in Brooklyn...and I recently talked to a campaign worker who's running a Democratic city council campaign out in Queens where they're running away from Thompson and toward Bloomberg.

        •  I Get An Underlying Unhappiness With Bloomberg (0+ / 0-)

          from a lot of people I talk to.  People feel he is arrogant and out of touch but they don't know much about Thompson.  This is not 2005 where everyone really liked the guy.  I got crap from my wife for voting against him in 2005 but she wants Bloomberg gone this time.

          I think there is an opening but the problem any candidate has is Bloomberg will just swamp them with his money.  My sense is Bloomberg will win but it will close.  I predict a 51-53% win for him.

      •  I may get flamed but (0+ / 0-)

        I think Thompson lacks a galvanizing issue. Bloomberg hasn't made any really big errors that have ticked large groups of people off. There's no real compelling reason to change leadership.

        Jobs and the economy are NYers big concerns and they're not likely to hang that on Mike (or rather assume Thompson can do much more to fix it).

        Bloomberg gave a very impassioned speech over pride week urging GBLT New Yorkers to give hell to their state senators to get gay marriage passed. His social liberal cred seems authentic to me.

        Defend Maine's Marriage Equality. Donate.

        by Scott Wooledge on Tue Jul 28, 2009 at 09:02:59 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Not Sure If Thompsons Will Win (0+ / 0-)

        I was just trying to point out why the polls are tightening.

        Despite Bloomberg's touting the school stuff, there is a lot of unhappiness amongst parents with kids in them.  No one wants a return to the old days but people feel Joel Klein runs the schools in an autocratic and dictatorial way.  Parents want to have more input.

        Thompson has been quite vocal on the subject and I sense he is getting some traction on the issue.

    •  How anyone supports Bloomberg is beyond me (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jmnyc

      Does no one remember the thuggish tactics used against protesters and bystanders during the 2004 Republican National Convention?  Or Bloomberg's convenient amnesia with regard to party affiliation?  Or maybe his arrogant rewriting of term limits to support his bid for another term?  Hell, Giuliani didn't even have the balls to try that trick!

      I haven't forgotten The Path to 9/11, Disney. You're still dead to me.

      by beemerr on Wed Jul 29, 2009 at 05:18:11 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Someone else can do this summary, right? Right? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    VA Breeze, danmitch

    -sniff*

    They tortured people to get false confessions to fraudulently justify our invading Iraq.

    by Ponder Stibbons on Tue Jul 28, 2009 at 08:05:38 PM PDT

  •  Have a great vacation (0+ / 0-)

    I can't believe you're leaving sob

    This is always my favorite front page post every day! Now go have some fun

    A Contributing Writer for the Northwest Progressive Institute http://www.nwprogressive.org/weblog/

    by danmitch on Tue Jul 28, 2009 at 08:06:03 PM PDT

  •  Without Stephanie-Herseth Sandlin... (0+ / 0-)

    winning the South Dakota governor's race will be nearly impossible.  The Dakotas have become increasingly Republican since 2000.

    I am proud to admit that I come from one of the districts that had the least votes for George W. Bush in the entire country.

    by ThePrometheusMan on Tue Jul 28, 2009 at 08:06:35 PM PDT

    •  I don't think that's correct (0+ / 0-)

      I'm fairly certain both South Dakota and North Dakota have trended more Democratic in the past two election cycles.

      •  Both things are true (0+ / 0-)

        Bush and Rove maxed out the Republican vote almost everywhere in November 2004.  The few places that have gotten more Republican since have had a lot of migration.  Either they've lost a big chunk of young or nonwhite population to nearby cities (West Virginia and the rest of Appalachia, Louisiana) or gained in retirees.

        IIRC, the Dakotas voted for Bush with 60% (ND) and 62% (SD) in 2004.  McCain got 54% and 55% iirc.

        I suspect the difference in voter motivation probably made the Bush vote slightly higher and the McCain vote slightly lower, by 1-2%, than the true partisan split.

        But fundamentally, in recent years there's a 1% per year Democratic trend everywhere there isn't a lot of migration in or out.  It has to do with new young voters siding Democratic and the elderly that die mostly being people who voted Republican.  In the age demographics inbetween, relatively few Boomers are shifting Republican as they age and GenXers seem to actually be shifting a few percentage points more Democratic.

  •  Have a great vacation with your family! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    danmitch

    See you when you get back-have fun!

    There is just as much horse sense as ever, but the horses have most of it. ~Author Unknown

    by VA Breeze on Tue Jul 28, 2009 at 08:07:27 PM PDT

  •  Have a great vacation! (0+ / 0-)

    I am proud to admit that I come from one of the districts that had the least votes for George W. Bush in the entire country.

    by ThePrometheusMan on Tue Jul 28, 2009 at 08:11:58 PM PDT

  •  Interesting history on Republican mayors in NYC (4+ / 0-)

    Look at the 1941 election results:

    The Democratic candidate got 1,054,235 votes.

    The Republican candidate got 668,485 votes.

    The American Labor Party (socialist) candidate got 435,374 votes. (In the Bronx, the American Labor Party candidate actually outpolled the Republican party candidate.)

    However, the Republican candidate was the same as the American Labor Party candidate -- Fiorello La Guardia! (The Democrat was William O'Dwyer.) This was actually a repeat of the 1937 election when the ALP also put La Guardia over the top.

    Bloomberg is no fool; he knows that in most of NYC running as a Republican is suicide. So he has already obtained the nomination of the Independence Party. (Someone should investigate Bloomberg's relationship to Lenore Fulani and Fred Newman.)

    All my IP addresses have been banned from Redstate.com.

    by charliehall on Tue Jul 28, 2009 at 08:12:28 PM PDT

    •  On that note: much was made this week (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      mcfly

      on WNYC's Digesting Politics show, that for the first time Bloomberg did not secure the endorsment of the Working Families Party. New Yorkers will have to vote for him on the R line (also a big loss of unionized labor get out the vote machine). They were speculating if there was any math that could help Thompson (and not optimistic, but it might not be the cakewalk Mike had planned).

      Defend Maine's Marriage Equality. Donate.

      by Scott Wooledge on Tue Jul 28, 2009 at 08:20:11 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  In NY, (0+ / 0-)

      the Independence Party is a tool of the Republican Party.

      I haven't forgotten The Path to 9/11, Disney. You're still dead to me.

      by beemerr on Wed Jul 29, 2009 at 05:21:40 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Can we force Dodd from the Senate? (0+ / 0-)

    I mean primary him? What are the numbers there. If Dodd doesn't resign his blunders and bad choice are going to cost us the seat.

    There's something attractive about invincible ignorance... for the first 5 seconds.

    by MNPundit on Tue Jul 28, 2009 at 08:20:31 PM PDT

  •  Another Republican sex scandal... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    mcfly, Ponder Stibbons

    Paul Stanley, Tennessee State Senator, Quits After Affair With 22-Year-Old Intern:

    A Tennessee lawmaker resigned from the state Senate on Tuesday after his extramarital affair with a 22-year-old intern was revealed by an investigation into an extortion case.

    "Due to recent events, I have decided to focus my full attention on my family and resign my Senate seat effective August 10," Republican Sen. Paul Stanley wrote in his resignation letter.

    Court records show that Stanley, 47, told agents investigating a blackmail case that he had a sexual relationship with intern McKensie Morrison. Her boyfriend, Joel Watts, is charged with trying to extort $10,000 from Stanley in April. Investigators say Watts demanded the money in exchange for not releasing to the media explicit photos of Morrison that Stanley had taken in what appears to be Stanley's apartment.

    The senator, a married father of two who represents suburban Memphis.

    More at Source...

    "We are a Plutocracy, we ought to face it. We need, desperately, to find new ways to hear independent voices & points of view" Ramsey Clark, US AG

    by Mr SeeMore on Tue Jul 28, 2009 at 08:22:45 PM PDT

  •  Bunning Slayer? Or Killer Rabbit (0+ / 0-)

    Because even when it isn't really apropos, you still need a little Python Madness to get through your day.

    "If another country builds a better car, we buy it. If they make a better wine, we drink it. If they have better healthcare . . . what's our problem? "

    by mbayrob on Tue Jul 28, 2009 at 08:31:36 PM PDT

  •  rand paul (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bmaples

    he lives in bowling green Kentucky, not truly western Kentucky but I guess you could call it a gateway to western kentucky.

    western kentucky university is there and few people unfamiliar with Kentucky realize what a long state it actually is horizontally on the map.

    strange that many people in that area do not know him, but his name and legacy will gather media attention.

    trey grayson will do well, but a primary will be extremely interesting and fun to watch.

  •  McConnell did us no favors (2+ / 0-)

    Bunning would have been a much easier out, IMHO. Grayson will be hard to beat. I don't think Paul has a chance, but you never know; if he can get enough money to do media to improve his name recognition, it might get interesting. Grayson is still the presumptive GOP candidate.

    Dem side? We've got Lt. Gov Dan Mongiardo, who almost beat Bunning last time. You'd think he'd be the clear front-runner, but his ties to coal and support of Kentucky's DOMA have made him personna non grata with progressives, and his fund-raising is running well behind the AG, Conway.

    Jack Conway is ahead of everyone in $$, but may be burdened around the state by being seen as a "Louisville city boy." Mongiardo is playing that card, but so far it isn't making much of a dent.

    Conway - Grayson will be a tough race. We can win it, I think, but it's going to take a serious ground game and excellent media and communications work. And remember: Obama lost this state by something like 527%, so getting Conway into the Senate will be a job, majority Dem registraions or not.

    Bruce in Louisville
    Visit me at brucemaples.com

    Follow me on Twitter: @brucewriter

    by bmaples on Tue Jul 28, 2009 at 08:59:39 PM PDT

  •  Heh, my b-day is Aug. 12. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    beemerr

    "Jesus Christ was black, ronald reagan was the devil, and the government is lying about 9/11." Huey Freeman

    by cee4 on Tue Jul 28, 2009 at 09:12:40 PM PDT

  •  Why is Corzine so unpopular, anyway? (0+ / 0-)
    •  New Jersey is in a nasty budget crunch (0+ / 0-)

      and he's not being much of a leader.  He promised that he'd lower taxes in his previous election campaign but couldn't deliver.

      He did seem to get the state agencies working pretty effectively again, so NJ voters feel they're actually getting some decent services for their money.  But not enough.

      The problem that NJ voters want/need addressed now is the machine politics and the problems that come with that in significant chunks of NJ state and local government: patronage, hackery, nepotism, bribery, corruption.  Those suck up a lot of money- cheating the taxpayers- and the people benefiting fail to deliver adequate services to the average folks.  See for example the 40 folks arrested in the scandal that broke in northern NJ a few days ago.

      There aren't a whole lot of other problems that government can deal with during bad recessions, when there is hard the money to keep basic services running.  Recessions are opportunities to clear problem people out, end failing programs, reorganize to efficiency, deal with corruption etc.

      Corzine seems temperamentally not the right person for that job according to NJ folks I've talked to. He's also a Democrat and most of the political machines and bosses that are the problems seem to be Democrats.  Corzine needs them for votes now.  

      (Though in my experience, machines and their bosses are no liberals; for them it's all about money and power and usually their family and ethnic group.  They're usually conservatives, ideologically.  When machines collapse the number and percentage of votes cast for Democrats in those suburbs and counties usually goes up a fair amount.)

      Christie is a blunt instrument who will damage a lot of good and innocent folks if let loose in NJ government.  But no one doubts he'll pick up the hammer and set to smashing the Democratic (-identified) bosses and machines that annoy him and are almost invariably corrupt.

  •  Republicans have 43%-42% lead on generic ballot (0+ / 0-)

    according to a new NPR poll.  http://www.npr.org/...

    We better use this majority to pass historic healthcare reform before it is gone for another 12 years.  

  •  Safe travels, Steve. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Steve Singiser

    Are we there yet?

    I gotta pee.

    Are we there yet?

    The map just flew out the back window.

    Are we there yet?

    Make him stop hitting me, Dad!

    Are we there yet?

    Roll down yer windows, kids.  This one's gonna be fragrant.

    Are we there yet?

    Is it bad I just gave that motorcycle gang the finger?

    Are we there yet?

    -

    •  Yeah, The "Are We There Yet?" Is Gonna Hurt.... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Bill in Portland Maine

      Some days, going between places out West, are in the neighborhood of 450-500 mile driving days. I have a very bad feeling about those days.

      :)

      "You share your young with the wolves of the nation...
      Theres nothing left til you pray for salvation"
      Black Rebel Motorcycle Club "American X"

      by Steve Singiser on Wed Jul 29, 2009 at 05:07:40 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Can Corzine (0+ / 0-)

    Yeah, yeah, yeah... polling is notorious in looking better for Republican in NJ than they actually perform. I know, I know. I get it, and I accept it. I accept it because, as a lifelong NJ resident, I've seen it play out time and again. And, despite positive polling for Republicans, you could always feel "on the street" that things were not as good for them as indicated by polls.

    However... this time is different.

    The feeling "on the street" is right in line with polling.

    Barring a current Christie scandal breaking in the news, Corzine will likely go down if he stays on the ballot.

    Can him.

    (disclaimer: i want to be wrong. i hope i'm wrong. i'd love nothing more than to be wrong. i want to be buying the eggs for others to smash on my face when all is said and done. but i don't think i am, nor will be)

  •  The NJ Gov race (0+ / 0-)

    reminds me of the national political election in Canada when the liberals got booted.

    The state is in pain, taxes are high, property values crashing, and a ton of corruption.

    All being hung around Corzine's neck.

    He done.

    Harry Reid: An idiot, full of sound and fury signifying nothing (HT Shakespeare)

    by DrWolfy on Wed Jul 29, 2009 at 05:24:06 AM PDT

  •  NJ-Gov: PPP Crosstabs (0+ / 0-)

    Actually, I don't see anything favorable in the 'locked in' section of the PPP NJ crosstabs.  Each group seems to be at 77%, with Democrats being a little weaker at 72%, though I'm not sure why.  The self-identified 'liberals' are locked in at 80%, with the moderates being the 'swing' at 'only' 73% locked in.

    Hispanics are going to have to be wooed hard.  Only 60-40 are 'locked in' and the population goes 50-33 christie... what? Seems like that's a shift-able population, at least from a national Republican-ID perspective.  Maybe the whole "Republican? Moi?" bit is actually being effective, but Corzine needs to hit back hard tying Christie to the Republican brand.

    Honestly, there's not too much happy in that bit too.  Corzine's gotta push the new 'vote by mail' and get a significantly larger chunk of the youth bloc to vote than normal.  Luckily, a certain President pioneered this sort of thing last year and would easily have an emulate-able system, as was done in OH, among other states.  What's his name again? :-P

    As an aside, the 'flip flop/he'll say anything to be elected' attack is probably more 'sticky' against Christie than the 'winger' attack, IMO.  He's being savaged on the right by his defeated primary opponent for "abandoning his conservative principles."

  •  Not a late announcement for Minnesota (0+ / 0-)

    Coleman delaying until March or April for a Governor announcement in Minnesota is not particularly unusual by the state's standards.  Endorsing conventions are in July, and the primary is in September, and there are some pretty strict spending limits for state elections.  So campaigns there for state office tend to be pretty short -- especially if a candidate decides to go directly to the primary and ignore the endorsing convention which Coleman might well do if he doesn't think he can get traction with the religious right at the state convention.

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