Reports from Afghanistan, courtesy of the New York Times and the Associated Press, indicate some bad signs for Afghan President Hamid Karzai.
Voter turnout is uneven. In the south and some parts of the east, where Karzai needed a good turnout from his fellow Pashtuns, there has been a very low turnout. Voting may have picked up later in the day, and there may have been the decision to extend voting hours, but...
This election isn't about who gets a plurality. It's about who gets a majority. 50% + 1. Hamid Karzai may not have attained that. Abdullah Abdullah, said to have been surging in recent days, may be able to drag Karzai into a runoff. Voter turnout in the north appears to have been much stronger than in the south.
Acts of violence have left some in the south frightened about staining their finger. There are reports of some people in Kandahar province being found hanged for having voted. Hamid Karzai had asked for a media blackout regarding attacks out of fear that even just a few would be sufficient to frighten his fellow Pashtuns, but he did not get that wish.
Kabul also saw its share of violence today, including a two-hour gun battle.
In many ways, Dr. Abdullah Abdullah seems to be a better choice. Part Tajik and part Pashtun, the biracial doctor is an Afghan before he is either Pashtun or Tajik. Whether or not he would make for a better choice is tough to say, even if the bar set by Karzai is awfully low.
Results of the vote may not come in for another `12-24 hours.
UPDATE:
One unknown; how much support will Karzai get from Uzbeks in the north? He might get enough to prevent a run-off.