Keep working, and healthcare reform with a public option is ours. Sit around and piss and moan and we won’t get because we haven’t earned it.
My first two parts of this are hereand here.
Today I would like to talk about how and why Obama is providing cover for the Blue Dogs. I believe he already has his votes lined up; he just wants to make sure that the Blue Dogs are not irreparably damaged by this.
I know several people have taken Rahm's pique personally. I think his anger is based in the knowledge that the Blue Dog issue is resolved and the votes have been secured, and what we're doing to them now is merely piling on. The further excoriation with all the television and radio ads may only serve to cost the Democrats a Senate or House seat.
Obama and Rahm understand, better a Blue Dog than any Republican. Let's go below the fold.
I don't believe that any politician takes positions simply in order to piss off three fourths of their own party, with the possible exception of that piece of dung Joe Lieberman. Otherwise I believe most politicians are reasonably accurate reflections of their constituencies. So to engender fantasies that removing a Blue Dog would facilitate the election of a truly liberal Democrat is probably not realistic. Most likely the seat would end up in Republican hands, and Barack Obama knows that. So Obama seems to be taking care to provide cover for the Blue Dogs, especially since health care reform will demonstrate no tangible benefits prior to the 2010 elections, only a theoretical concept with a price tag attached to it.
Personally I believe he already has his cloture votes lined up, and he knows that when the final legislation is presented it will be straight up or down. 51 and done. In order to get cloture the Blue Dogs will necessarily have to vote for it, but it will be a lot easier to explain away to constituents a vote on parliamentary procedure rather than a vote for the public option in some of these Blue Dog districts. Any Blue Dog standing for reelection in a hotly contested district or state will be able to say I voted against Obama's health care plan if necessary. That is part of the cover Obama will provide for them. But there is more.
I hear complaining because some Blue Dogs are saying openly that they will not support a public option. This is nothing more than political theater. Obama could step in and stop them if he wanted however it makes more sense to let them score points with their constituents and to let the rising tide of public opinion be what changes their minds. He does not care what they say between now and the day of the vote, he only cares about how the numbers of the vote read when all is said and done. But how can he be so sure? How can he appear so totally confident in his plan? I would say there are 750 billion reasons.
This man just passed a $750 billion stimulus package, so do you think he is not smart enough to tuck a little bit of that money away for a rainy day? You think he handed all that money out and didn't keep back 30 or $40 billion of it to be used to incentivize members of Congress into seeing things his way? A relocated military base here, a $200 million infrastructure project there, it doesn't take much and you have half a dozen senators and 15 or 20 congressmen on your side that supposedly were in the tossup category. My wife worked for DFAS and her job got incentivized from Kansas City to Columbus, Ohio shortly before the 2004 elections. You think that was a coincidence? You think George Bush wasn't trying to secure Ohio? Then, if nothing else, there's always the promise that the president will come and raise money and campaign for you in the next election cycle. He holds a lot of cards and has demonstrated an insane amount of ability and intuitiveness on how to play them.
The fact is there will be plenty of pork for the Blue Dogs to take home to salve any wounds that were created by a vote for cloture or health care reform. The Blue Dogs will be able to say an incredible amount of political pressure was brought to bear upon them to vote for health care reform, and oh, by the way, what do you think of this shiny new military base I brought home? Obama is covering their asses.
Folks, we control the executive branch, and we have one of the smartest men in history sitting in the chair. He has shown almost flawless execution in everything from running a campaign to selecting his cabinet to passing legislation. If Democrats vote against Barack Obama on health care it will be at their own peril unless they have been given a Blue Dog exemption. I imagine, like an elephant, Obama has a very long memory. I would not want to be the Democrat to cross Barack Obama on this issue. This is a done deal, but only if we are willing to continue working for it.
On a slightly different note there were several people who took me to task and accused me of being hyperbolic in my effusive praise for Barack Obama. Most of them were the same people who were whining that he has not delivered them health care reform on a silver platter. They are easy enough to ignore but they should understand that rarely does someone who so totally dominates their field of endeavor come along. Performers like Michael Jordan, Tiger Woods, and Tom Brady are extraordinary and we should appreciate them in the moment, and not wait until they retire to express our beliefs that they were superior competitors.
If you find it difficult to believe that's okay, but please don't piss on everyone else's parade. We have The Natural as president and we are going to enjoy him now. I would rather watch Babe Ruth strikeout than to see Joe Schmoe hit a homerun.