US 'needs fresh Afghan strategy'.
General Stanley McChrystal believes shifting strategy to protecting the Afghan people will put us on the road to success (I guess that means victory?).
He wants to train the Afghan army (at least 3 years?) and police (unknown time period). While doing the training NATO (read the US), will be clearing and holding villages.
Defense Secretary Gates said "... There is clarity in terms of our strategy," Mr. Gates said in response to a question about growing public opposition to the war. "Success is the Afghan national security forces assuming a greater and greater role in controlling and protecting their own territory as we recede into an advisory capacity and ultimately withdraw..."
The goal of this strategy is to deny a training ground for Al-Qaeda by strengthening the Afghan armed forces. Clearly that will take years and a significant amount of manpower. Our allies are unwilling to increase support so the US will be shouldering most of the burden.
If we do not significantly increase our forces to train as well as hold territory (protect Afghans), we will be in a no win situation. I don’t believe the American people have the will to commit the resources for years to train Afghans. It would be tragic to commit for two (2) years then pull out most of our troops leaving Afghanistan in the same bad situation. McChrystal and Gates really is just guessing how long it will take to get Afghan forces ready to go it alone.
It’s obvious the Afghan Government has severe problems with corruption and legitimacy. Being a realist, I don’t have the neocon drive to spread democracy around the world through force of arms. If the US could develop a semi-competent armed forces to protect a majority of their people (and deny Al-Qaeda a training ground) in two (2) years, I would consider this a victory and leave.
Unfortunately, I do not think this will happen...
I don’t know if Obama has the will (or support) to be able to hang on for over two (2) years.
It would be better to reduce our presence, try to make alliances with warlords and train as many Afghans as possible.