Warmed over beltway conventional wisdom, courtesy of NY Times:
In Washington, Representative Joe Wilson of South Carolina was sharply criticized by both Democrats and his fellow Republicans for shouting "You lie!" during President Obama’s health care address on Wednesday. But here in his strongly Republican Congressional district on Thursday, he was celebrated by many of his constituents for his outburst.
"Yeah, it was rude, but somebody needed to say it," said Susan Wahl, 41, a homemaker in this town of 800 outside Columbia. "Ordinary people can’t just get up and tell Obama he lied. He said something we all wanted to say."
In a state famous for both its gentility and its rebelliousness, Mr. Wilson earned praise from voters who admired his message, if not his delivery.
Sure, some people are going to applaud such boorish behavior anywhere in the country. The question really is whether it was a political winner. The pollsters at PPP decided to actually ask the people of the district.
In a matter of seconds Wednesday night Joe Wilson went from being pretty safe for reelection to one of the most vulnerable Republican incumbents in the country.
Wilson trails Democratic challenger Rob Miller 44-43 in a PPP survey conducted Thursday night and Friday morning. Last year Wilson defeated Miller 54-46.
62% of voters in SC-2 disapprove of Wilson's actions while just 29% think they were ok. By a 48-41 margin Republicans think what he did was fine, but independents are opposed to it by a 66/25 margin and Democrats are 84/10.
Of course, polling is much more expensive and difficult than to write a bullshit story based on conventional wisdom that Wilson's district is "conservative", hence eager to applaud Wilson's actions.
Fact of the matter is that SC-02 was surprisingly competitive in 2008 despite no outside assistance, and despite having Wilson outspend Democratic challenger, Marine, and war vet Bill Rob Miller by a 2-1 margin.
Things have clearly changed, including the fact that Miller has raised more in the last 36 hours than he did ALL of 2008. And with the early money in the bank, if Miller can avoid the lure of parasitic consultants, he has a good chance to buy himself a solid organization for the battle ahead.
But at some point, soon, Miller will have to quit riding the momentum of Wilson's outburst and start making a case for HIS candidacy. In fact, that time has probably already arrived.