In his diary today, Markos released and analyzed the results of a recent poll he commissioned showing us in a statistical dead heat, and I couldn't agree more with his take on it. Here's the results:
As you may know there will be one question on the ballot this November in Maine addressing the issue of same-sex unions. In part it will read "Do you want to reject the new law that lets same-sex couples marry?" A yes vote takes away the right of same-sex couples to marry. A no vote keeps the right of same-sex couples to marry. If the election were held today would you vote YES or NO on this question?
All 48 46
Men 52 43
Women 44 49
Dem 31 60
Rep 74 20
Ind 45 52
18-29 43 52
30-44 45 49
45-59 51 44
60+ 55 38
1st CD 45 50
2nd CD 51 42
While most of the cross-tabs are expected (we lead among Democrats and young voters), what stands out to me is that we also have a significant 7 point lead among independent voters. Almost 30% of the state's registered voters identify as independents, and Mainers have a strong history of being a very independent electorate. It's no surprise to me that independent-leaning voters understands that this is not a partisan issue, but rather a fairness issue.
I also agree with Markos' suggestion that we need to focus on turning out young people to the polls in November, which is why we have campus organizers on every college campus in the state. Additionally, our field team has partnered with the League of Young Voters to organize on campuses.
I'd like to echo Markos' call to action:
If you live in Maine, register to vote early, if you live in the region, consider volunteering, and everyone else, if you can, consider contributing to the effort. If we can hold our hard-fought ground in Maine, it'll make it that much easier to fight for progress everywhere else, from California and beyond.
We've always known this would be a hard-fought campaign and that the results would be close. We feel confident that we have the right strategy and we're running a Maine-based campaign. We have organized an unprecedented grassroots effort with organizers on the ground in every county, on every college campus, in towns and cities across Maine and reaching out to Maine people from Kittery to Fort Kent.
Our campaign emphasizes Mainer talking to their friends, neighbors, coworkers and families to build the support we need to win on November 3rd. The proponents of Question 1 are bringing in all the outside, anti-equality forces. These are organizations and individuals with nearly bottomless resources and that's why we need the continuing support of the netroots community and others to remain competitive and, ultimately, to defeat Question 1.
This is our moment. The poll shows that this is winnable, but we need your help.
As I write this, the DailyKos Orange to Blue page is at $2,250 -- with your help, we can double or triple that by the end of the day. I always say, Maine is a "cheap date" state, especially compared to California. Every dollar donated will help us win. Thanks for the help so far.