OR
There's a Brouhaha a Brewin' at the Pentagon
Well, it looks like Gen. McChrystal and others have got their cammo panties in a wad over the deliberate thoughtful approach by this President with regards to Afghanistan. Personally I find this has less to do with political philosophy than with simple condescension. Here's this young (relatively), CIC who has NEVER worn the uniform. How dare he think he knows more than us? We know best, just get out of our way kind of thing. Regardless of who is right, or the final strategy decided, one thing is clear. The situation in Afghanistan is becoming a worse quagmire than Iraq ever was.
First of all, the overriding factor in all of this is the legitimacy of the actual "Government". We are stuck, it seems, with a Bush appointee who worked for Unocal, and was only put in power to guarantee that the pipeline would go through Afghanistan and Pakistan and thus get the oil to us and NOT the Chinese or Russians.
Second, Afghanistan is one of the most tribal places on earth. If the government wants something done, it has to go through tribal warlords and chieftains. And at the present time, most are not too happy with the current administration. So the central government is hideously ineffective, essentially being the government of Kabul and its environs.
Third, for some reason the Afghan people do not take kindly to non Afghans, no matter who they are or what they want, especially if they want to mess around with regime building and the like. There is a reason there is no Greek architecture there.
Fourth, one of the leading industries in Afghanistan is the opium trade.
Fifth, due to almost 30 years of war and occupation, there is NO infrastructure, and precious few institutions to administer a nation.
Finally, the previous government wants to run the country again. Very badly. And they are not going away. Plus, they own the hearts and minds of a large portion of the country. AND, All of this is distracting from the supposed "mission" of getting Osama and all his evil henchmen.
So you have an interminable war with an entrenched foe and the people who you are supposed to be fighting for don't want you there. Your top generals want to send more and more troops thinking that numbers will change these facts. I was born in 1967, but that sounds a hell of a lot like Viet Nam to me.
Now, while I am not going to propose this century's version of the Paris Peace Talks, I will make this comment to the President:
MAKE THE DEAL
You can make Afghanistan a functional country, contain the threat of the Taliban, and bag Osama with a few simple steps.
MAKE THE DEAL
With the Taliban.
They can be used as the means to the endgame of getting us out with some semblance of victory. Here's how.
We give the Taliban part of Afghanistan to make their own little Talibanistan--an autonomous region within the country much like the Tribal Areas. With their own laws and leaders, but with representation in the central government. We remove most of our troops, leaving only a few thousand to train the Afghan Security Forces and to do commando raids on remaining al-Queda areas.
In return? We get Osama, his top henchmen, and other al-Queda that are in Pakistan and Afghanistan. The Taliban leaves Pakistan alone, and offers Taliban supporters a home in the new autonomous area. Free emigration between the Taliban region and the rest of the country--someone doesn't like Taliban law? They can move. And vice versa. And, the Taliban signs truce papers with the Afghan government so we can provide the money, equipment and materiel to physically rebuild the country.
That's it. Now, there are some things that we would have to do with regards to the central government as well to make this work.
Step One: We are the occupying power, so let's act like one. Call the election off, and announce a run-off. Karzai vs Abdullah. THIS time, actually monitor the election. If you don't want the State Department to do it, get the UN and the Carter Foundation to do it for you.
Step Two: Once the results are certified as free as possible from fraud, ENFORCE THE RESULTS. This establishes a legitimate government which can represent the country and can begin establishing the infrastructure and institutions to bring the country back to the functioning level.
Now, as we reduce our troop presence, money saved from those operations can be used to fund the rebuilding. With local contractors, even though we may have to provide equipment, international sealed bid contracts, and reputable American contractors. A Marshall Plan type thing. We can also get lots of monetary and logistical support for these endeavors from the UN and NATO, as I'm sure they'd much rather be building than shooting. Cheaper, too.
So, if this works out, what happens? First, it will hopefully give the Afghan forces enough training and preparation so that when we eventually leave, sooner than later, those forces will be able to hold off the Taliban should they try for another push for power as they did in the 90s. Hopefully there will be, with the construction et al, a more stable government this time.
Second, it gives Pakistan time to stabilize its government as they deal with their own issues before moving on to old business--messing with India.
Third, it gives President Obama a HUGE political boost. While details will inevitably be leaked in an effort to damage him politically with talk of "appeasement", the sight of Osama doing a perp walk into a US courtroom will guarantee reelection, no matter what else happens. It will be the world's shortest ad: "I caught Osama".
Fourth, as the rebuilding work is going on, we also build up infrastructure et al in the Taliban area. The helping hand works better than the clenched fist.
Now. I'm no diplomat, skilled in the fine arts of bullshit and negotiating, but I think these goals are goals everyone can work with to everyone's benefit. And while I don't doubt that there may be things going on that I haven't taken into account as to this deal not being viable, I do think that this is a good deal for everyone.
But regardless of my attempts at global strategic thinking, in the endgame, we will have to cut some deals to end this. I just think it's better to do it now, while we can get advantages, rather than later, when we are truly beaten.
So, again, I say to you, Mr. President
MAKE THE DEAL