U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has suspended technical assistance to Honduras' electoral court, saying turmoil there means presidential elections scheduled for November will not be credible.
Ban Spokeswoman Michele Montas said the move was temporary, though her Wednesday statement did not say when it might end.
This move by the UN is very significant news. The OAS has already said clearly that it will not recognize elections under the coup, and the US has said it might not. But these were essentially political moves, an explicit attempt to apply pressure to the regime. Elections were still arguably valid, as valid as any elections held to end an undemocratic regime (such as the post-Pinochet elections in Chile). The UN suspending election support is a different story: it is not about the larger issues at all, just a very explicit statement that currently, conditions are not apt for a valid election.
So, what now? More specifically, what role can the US play?
Let me be very clear: the fault for this "turmoil" must be laid clearly at the feet of the golpistas. They are the ones who have been cracking heads and killing 2, cutting power to embassies and media, making mass arrests and detentions, and putting the country on multi-day lockdown. Zelaya, by entering the country surreptitiously, may have been seeking conflict, he may have expected and desired this response, but it is always clear where to put the blame for a violent suppression of nonviolent protest [1].
So let's trace some possible future scenarios: (Of course, given the current situation, which is absolutely intolerable, unsustainable, and unpredictable, completely-unexpected events are always possible; the scenarios below are
- Protest simmers down slowly, elections are held more-or-less cleanly, and eventually the results are recognized by the world. The coup is, ultimately, successful, although very painful for Honduras's economy and thus ultimately for its wealthy and powerful instigators. The message to future presidents in the country and the region is clear: don't get out of line, we have you by your balls.
- Protest builds, repression is maintained. Media are severely restricted and clean elections are visibly impossible. Elections are held, but many Hondurans boycott them (Zelaya supporters already threaten a boycott) and the results are not recognized globally. International interest in the issue dies down, but the relative economic isolation of Honduras continues. Honduras continues to suffer, with no end in sight.
- Protest builds, repression continues for a time, but soon some crucial part of the coup coalition breaks (probably some business interests followed by the military). Zelaya is restored, elections proceed (with perhaps a few weeks of delay to the elections, and no delay to the transition of power). A major victory for diplomacy, and only a symbolic one for Zelaya - he can do nothing of importance in the time he has left and with the San Jose accord handcuffs on his presidential powers.
Right now, 2 - the worst result from all perspectives - is looking like the most likely one. The next few days are key. The US's mushy position is part of what's making such an inconclusive result likely.
US statements in recent days have been mostly with regard to encouraging further negotiation or (taking credit for) ensuring the integrity (power and water) of Brazil's embassy. This is weak tea. Sure, the US is reluctant to ringingly endorse Zelaya, a friend of US enemy Chavez - but this is NOT ABOUT ZELAYA, it is about the validity of coups d'etat as a mechanism for resolving political differences. And sure, diplomats like to maintain maneuvering room - but not when it's now or never; there will never be another decisive moment when this matter can be resolved so cleanly.
So, what should the US be doing? Remember, the pro-coup faction has advocates within the US government and press. These people may not be as brazen liars as Micheletti himself (who in the past few days has denied such obvious facts as that Zelaya was in the country and that the government had cut power and water to the neighborhood including Brazil's embassy), but, let's be honest, provoking them can lead to distracting sideshows. If this becomes a debate on the validity of Zelaya's pre-coup actions, they can throw up enough mud to cloud the debate. (Those actions were NOT, as opponents argue, unconstitutional - nothing he did could have led to extending his term, and although it MIGHT have made him re-electable at a later date, that is pure supposition; but they WERE illegal, in going against a court order. Anyway, Zelaya is a worse-than-average Latin-American politician, not somebody worth defending for his own sake.)
Still, there is a clear path for US action, pointed out by the UN action which provoked this diary. The UN is focusing on the actual situation - the violent repression of protest and press - not on the politics. The US could take the absolute moral high ground by doing the same. "If constitutional freedoms, including freedom of assembly, of movement, and of the press, are not restored in Honduras very soon, we will be forced to take further action." And support for a UN Security council resolution to similar effect.
Nobody denies that the US has the high cards here - such a clear threat of an economic blockade would have Honduran businesspeople restoring Zelaya in a heartbeat, without any need to carry it out. And yet, the golpistas are truly incapable of governing without violent repression. As Gandhi said, "what was obtained by violence can only be maintained by violence." Granting international protection to actual Hondurans to take back their country peacefully would be a beautiful thing.
footnotes:
[1] Coup supporters will argue that the anti-coup protest has not been 100% nonviolent over time. It is true that, in the past months, there have been serious acts of vandalism and individual fights apparently instigated by anti-coup activists. Without investigating what portion of these might be the fault of agents-provocateurs, we can merely say that since Zelaya's return, there are no credible reports of such activity.