This is the third in a three part series looking at the war in Afghanistan from 3 different angles. The first part found here looked at the Taliban's gains in light of a new report that found the Taliban have a presence in 80% of the country.
The second part here looked at the infighting between NATO countries and how the alliance may not hold.
This third part will be looking at the American side of things, what it's choices are going forward and the battle Obama could be facing right now with his military.
"I'm not interested in just being in Afghanistan for the sake of being in Afghanistan or saving face or, in some way – you know, sending a message that America is here for the duration."
President Obama on NBC's Meet the Press via Politico
Laughing in Dark Caves
Whichever cave Bin Laden is currently residing in he could very well be laughing right about now. That is the picture Middle East reporter Robert Fisk paints in his latest article.
And we are supposed to follow the logic of this nonsense. The Taliban lost in 2001. Then they started winning again. Then we had to preserve Afghan democracy. Then our soldiers had to protect – and die – for a second round of democratic elections. Then they protected – and died – for fraudulent elections.
Of course Robert Fisk is in a good position to know Bin Laden's views on the war in Afghanistan. Fisk remains the only Western journalist who has interviewed Bin Laden on 3 separate occasions.
As Fisk says in his book The Great War of Civilisation, he also wrote to Bin Laden after September 11 begging for the release of the Wall St Journal reporter Daniel Pearle (Fisk was the last person to see him before the kidnapping in Western Afghanistan) and got a reply that Bin Laden had tried to get him released but by the time he contacted the Al Qaeda cell holding him he had already been executed.
At this stage it is useful to go back and look at what Bin Laden wants to achieve in Afghanistan.
Source: CNN (2004)
The Arabic-language network Al-Jazeera released a full transcript Monday of the most recent videotape from Osama bin Laden in which the head of al Qaeda said his group's goal is to force America into bankruptcy.
"We, alongside the mujahedeen, bled Russia for 10 years until it went bankrupt and was forced to withdraw in defeat," bin Laden said.
He also said al Qaeda has found it "easy for us to provoke and bait this administration."
"All that we have to do is to send two mujahedeen to the furthest point east to raise a piece of cloth on which is written al Qaeda, in order to make generals race there to cause America to suffer human, economic and political losses without their achieving anything of note other than some benefits for their private corporations," bin Laden said.
8 Years into the war in Afghanistan. Where are we? As Fisk writes at the end of his piece.
"More troops will not guarantee success in Afghanistan," failed Republican contender and ex-Vietnam vet John McCain told us this week. "But a failure to send them will be a guarantee of failure." How Osama must have chuckled as this preposterous announcement echoed around al-Qa'ida's dark cave.
The irony is clear. After spending a quarter of a trillion dollars and losing 1422 NATO troops (including the 7 NATO troops that have been killed this weekend) The only way we can not fail is by sending more money and troops into the country. Even then according to McCain success is not guaranteed.
Obama Options
Daytona Beach News Journal © 2009 Creators.com
Lyndon Johnson told the nation
Have no fear of escalation.
I am trying everyone to please.
Though it isn't really war,
We're sending 50,000 more
To help save Vietnam from the Vietnamese.
Lyrics Tom Paxton "Lyndon Johnson told the Nation"
A lot of talk on this blog as well as the greater blogosphere and in the traditional media about if Afghanistan is Vietnam. So I will say this once. Afghanistan is not Vietnam. But that doesn't mean Afghanistan won't potentially be just as much of a failure and that there are not parallels.
So what to do?
Obama has a few options.
- Get out ASAP or in a phased withdrawal over say 2 years.
- Withdraw combat/occupation forces keep Special forces to hunt AQ
- Escalation to hunt AQ and the Taliban and Nation building.
McChrystal's report asked for more troops. Chairman of the Joint Chief's Mike Mullen met McChrystal and Petraeus in Germany to discuss it. But Obama has been slightly chilled to the idea.
"There is a natural inclination to say, 'If I get more, then I can do more,' " Mr. Obama said on CNN. "But right now, the question is - the first question is, are we doing the right thing? Are we pursuing the right strategy?"
VP Biden, of course, is believed to have his own ideas. The Biden plan is basically number two. Withdraw combat forces stop fighting the Taliban have special forces hunting Al Qaeda.
Source: NYT 22 September
Among the alternatives being presented to Mr. Obama is Mr. Biden’s suggestion to revamp the strategy altogether. Instead of increasing troops, officials said, Mr. Biden proposed scaling back the overall American military presence. Rather than trying to protect the Afghan population from the Taliban, American forces would concentrate on strikes against Qaeda cells, primarily in Pakistan, using special forces, Predator missile attacks and other surgical tactics.
This in my view is not only a smart move but is genius in it's simplicity. One mission attacking Al Qaeda. No talk of fighting a 100 thousand strong insurgency. No half hearted war against the drug trade. No pissing off the Pashtun tribes of the Taliban. Just end game.
Al Qaeda in Afghanistan/Pakistan are not a large organisation. Targeting Bin Laden, his number 2 Ayman al Zawahiri, his security head local Afghan Amin Al Haq, his operations planner Bilal Bin Marwan in Pakistan and Mohammed Bin Laden, his son who is rumoured to travel with Bin Laden and is possibly being groomed to replace him.
Also the Taliban are not generally as committed to the war as people seem to believe. Gulbuddin Hekmatyar who is a hero from the Soviet war days leads the Hezb e Islami group, one of the largest factions of the Taliban.
Apparently US officals have meet him since April to discuss a ceasefire and he seems open to it. If he was to declare a ceasefire the Taliban of Mullah Omar would once again be confined to the South of the country only and the border of Pakistan.
I'll also just mention that in the whole Afghan situation one country that could help the US more than any other is Iran. If Obama can negotiate a peace with Iran they would probably hand over several AQ agents that they have in custody including Ahmed Hassan Hamza the leader of Al Qaeda's entire military operations and Saad Bin Laden, Osama's third eldest son who is thought to have planned the 2003 Riyadh bombings.
Also Iran is friendly with the Hazara ethnic group in Afghanistan, with a population of 7 million. Hazara's all speak Persian and are generally distrustful of the Pushtun's tribes after years of war. They could be a great help to NATO forces if peace was made between US and Iran. Just sayin'.
What I think going forward.
Obama is correct to think through his options. The possibility of disaster is insanely close. Escalation will not bring a democracy to Afghanistan nor will be bring a secular state. What's worse is the chances that escalation will only maintain the status quo. Canada will be leaving by 2011. Germany is unpredictable and Gordon Brown in the UK will probably not be PM in 12 months time.
There is the train of thought to goes that if we withdraw from Afghanistan the Taliban will take over again and that cannot be allowed to happen. That idea, while logical sounding is misguided in the extreme. It ignores the fact that A) Afghanistan isn't already under the control of the Taliban in around 80% of the country (see my first part in this series).
B) Is to assume that the Taliban ever controlled Afghanistan, even under the "Taliban rule" of the '90's. The Northern Alliance controlled most of the North above Kunduz.The massive Herat Province to the West of the country is largely Tajik influenced mainly by Iran and was not very Taliban friendly during their reign.
Nevertheless desperation is in the air. Nancy Pelosi has said there is a lack of support for more troop increases. Colin Kenny the chair of Canada's National Security and Defence committee said "What we hoped to accomplish in Afghanistan has proved to be impossible."
Zbigniew Brzezinski said ""We are running the risk of replicating — obviously unintentionally — the fate of the Soviets."
In reality Obama should withdraw from the country leaving a small special forces contingent behind to target Al Qaeda. Anything else and the risk's of a Vietnam or a Soviet invasion are to great and will likely sink his presidency.
The Vietnamese... we worked with them, made something - something out of nothing... We want to stay here because it's ours - it belongs to us. It keeps our family together. I mean, we fought for that. While you Americans... you are fighting for the biggest nothing in history!
Hubert De Marais - Apocalypse Now Redux
It's a way we had over here for living with ourselves. We cut 'em in half with a machine gun and give 'em a Band-Aid. It was a lie. And the more I saw them, the more I hated lies.
Willard - Apocalypse Now.