1)Schumer and Rockefeller have been tag teaming perfectly and they've completely discredited the republican argument that this OPTION is a government takeover. Of course all republican senators who've spoken so far have still based their opposition around the "government takeover" theme, and they obviously choose not to listen to their beloved CBO in this instance. But if you weren't too familiar with the debate and were watching, its pretty easy to determine which side has the facts and which side doesn't. This was particularly evident when Schumer called out Grassley on his medicare hypocrisy.
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2)The Rockefeller ammendment obviously won't pass, Conrad has already declared his opposition to it, and Lincoln,Baucus and probably Nelson are opposed as well. Although I gotta say I'm feeling pretty good about Nelson on the Schumer ammendment, he's been pretty aggressive today against shooting back the republican myths on the PO. He's definetely not an enabler ala Conrad, Baucus, or even Bingaman.
3)The last and most important observation is how Conrad and Nelson, to a lesser extent, are basing their entire opposition to the Rockefeller ammendment on the first 2 years being tied to Medicare, both in terms of a mandate and reimbursement. Conrad, in particular, spent much of his portion on this issue to the point that he's pidgeonholed himself into having to support the Schumer ammendment. He already hinted at that last Friday when he said he was open to it, but after seeing him harp on the medicare rate issue, he's sorta left himself much less room to oppose the Schumer ammendment without having to totally discredit his claim that his main problem with the Rockefeller amendment was being tied to Medicare.
So what does all mean?? Well, imo, it means the Schumer ammendment is definetely not dead in the Finance Committee. I think there's a pretty good shot of passage if Lincoln or Baucus support the ammendment. The odds are still heavily tacked against it, and I wouldn't put it past Conrad to show his true colors and pull out some BS for opposing the Schumer ammendment. But I'm definetely more optimistic, and getting a PO on this bill basically guarantees it being in final passage so it would obviously be a momentous victory.