Former four-term Governor Terry Branstad (1983-1999) filed papers with the Iowa Ethics and Campaign Disclosure Board today, forming an exploratory committee for a possible gubernatorial campaign.
Republican power-brokers in Iowa have been trying to recruit Branstad to run against Governor Chet Culver for months. Branstad announced in May that he wasn't interested, but changed his mind after two polls in July (here and here) and one in September showed him beating Culver by double-digits in a hypothetical matchup.
The most recent Iowa poll by Selzer for the Des Moines Register did not ask voters whether they would prefer Branstad to Culver. It showed that 70 percent of respondents approve of the job Branstad did as governor, but only 48 percent thought it would be a good idea for Branstad to run again. Interestingly, senior citizens (who would have been adults during the entirety of Branstad's tenure as governor) were the least likely to say he should run again, according to Selzer's poll.
With Branstad's entry today, Swing State Project is now calling IA-Gov a tossup. I agree that Branstad will be a much tougher opponent for Culver than the rest of the Republican field, but I expect the recent poll numbers indicate Branstad's high-water mark. In the coming months, his record as governor will come under much more scrutiny.
Rival Republican candidates are likely to open three main lines of attack on Branstad:
- During his first three terms as governor, Branstad kept two sets of books in order to run illegal deficits. His fiscal mismanagement was the main factor driving support for then Congressman Fred Grandy during the 1994 Republican primary. State Representative Chris Rants, who has been running for governor since June, has already started hitting Branstad on this front. Last week he asserted,
"Culver's repeating the mistakes Branstad made in the 80's. He moved money on paper and delayed payments from one fiscal year to another until it finally caught up to him and he raised the sales tax to square the books. He could only hide his deficits for so long. It's these kinds of accounting gimmicks that caused the fallout between Auditor Johnson and Branstad."
"We Republicans need to be better than that if we expect to earn the trust of Iowans," added Rants.
Richard Johnson, state auditor during most of Branstad's tenure, was a high-profile Grandy endorser in 1994. Now he is co-chairing Bob Vander Plaats' campaign. (Vander Plaats was the GOP front-runner before Branstad jumped in.) Expect to hear more from Johnson in the future.
- During his four terms as governor, Branstad didn't deliver on various issues of importance to conservatives. Branstad selected a pro-choice lieutenant governor and didn't get an abortion ban through the legislature even when it was under Republican control during his final term. Vander Plaats, a hard-core conservative, has already promised not to balance his ticket with a moderate, and if Branstad announces a pro-choice running mate (as he is rumored to be considering), a lot of the Republican rank and file will be furious.
Branstad campaigned every four years on a promise to reinstate the death penalty, but he never got it done as governor.
Last week Rants promised to press for an amendment on gun rights to the Iowa Constitution. Perhaps we'll hear more in the future about Branstad's failure to do enough on this front.
- Branstad raised sales taxes, the gas tax, and favored other tax increases as well.
Tax hikes are never popular with the GOP base, and Rants and Vander Plaats are certain to educate primary voters about Branstad's record. If Christian Fong decides to stay in the race, we'll be hearing from him about this issue too. Ed Failor, head of Iowans for Tax Relief, is one of Fong's key political backers and fundraisers.
The Iowa Democratic Party has already started responding to the Draft Branstad PAC's revisionist history, and will continue to call attention to how Branstad governed. Click here to see the Iowa Democratic Party's response to the first pro-Branstad radio ad. The IDP has also created the entertaining Iowa Knows Better website, with information about all of the GOP candidates for governor. Here is the page on Branstad, with details on Branstad's two sets of books, tax increases, use of state bonding, and failure to pay state employees what they had earned.
Branstad will have more money and institutional support than the other Republican candidates and will be heavily favored to win the primary. But I doubt public approval for his work as governor will still be at 70 percent six months from now.