Previous diaries
Summary:
UT has 3 reps, 1 D, 2 R
VT has 1 rep, a D
VA has 11, 5 R and 6 D
WA has 9, 6 D, 3 R
WV has 3, all R
WI has 8, 6 D, 2 R
WY has 1, an R
Possibly vulnerable:
VA-01 (R)
VA-02 (D)
VA-05 (D)
WA-08 (R)
WI=08 (D)
Sources:
House vote in 2008 from AOL
VoteView (ranked from 1 for most liberal to 447 for most conservative; more than 435 because some districts had more than one rep in the 110th congress)
Race Tracker
Obama vote by CD from Swing State
National Atlas for maps
and my previous diaries.
District: UT-01
Location Northwestern UT, including Ogden and part of Salt Lake City map
Cook PVI R + 21
Representative Rob Bishop (R)
VoteView 371
First elected 2002
2008 margin 65-30 over Morgan Brown
2006 margin 63-32
2004 margin 68-29
Obama margin 33-64
Bush margin 2004 75-25
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 36th fewest Blacks (1.1%), 8th most Republican (per Cook PVI)
Assessment Long shot
District: UT-02
Location Most of Salt Lake City, and all of southeastern UT map
Cook PVI R + 15
Representative Jim Matheson (D)
VoteView 224
First elected
2008 margin 63-35 over Bill Dew
2006 margin 59-37
2004 margin 55-43
Obama margin 40-58
Bush margin 2004 66-31
Current opponents Casey Anderson
Demographics 18th fewest Blacks (0.6%)
Assessment Matheson has raised $400 K and spent little; no funding info on Anderson. Safe.
District: UT-03
Location Southwestern UT, including Orem and Provo map
Cook PVI R + 26
Representative Jason Chafetz (R)
VoteView NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin 66-28 over Bennion Spencer
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 29-67
Bush margin 2004 77-21
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 11th fewest Blacks (0.5%), 7th most Republican district in the country
Assessment Long shot
District: VT-01
Location Vermont map
Cook PVI D + 13
Representative Peter Welch (D)
VoteView 32.5
First elected 2006
2008 margin 84% against multiple minor parties
2006 margin 53-45
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 67-30
Bush margin 2004 39-59
Current opponents A primary, but no Republican
Demographics 13th most rural (61.8%), 4th most White (96.2%), 11th fewest Blacks (0.5%), 17th fewest Latinos (0.9%)
Assessment Safe
District: VA-01
Location Northeast VA, including Fredericksburg and most of the Chesapeake shoreline (on the western side) map
Cook PVI R + 7
Representative Robert Whitman (R)
VoteView 336
First elected 2007
2008 margin 57-42 over Bill Day
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 48-51
Bush margin 2004 60-39
Current opponents Krystal Ball (what a name!) and Scott Robinson
Demographics 13th most veterans (17.7%)
Assessment Ball has raised $100K, which is very impressive. Could be interesting.
District: VA-02
Location Virginia Beach and the eastern side of the Chesapeake map
Cook PVI R + 5
Representative Glenn Nye (D)
VoteView NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin 52-48 over Thelma Drake
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 50-48
Bush margin 2004 58-42
Current opponents A LOT of people (see the WIKI)
Demographics 3rd most veterans (20.3%)
Assessment Nye ousted Drake; he's raised over $600K; no funding info on any of the Republicans. But, still, vulnerable
District: VA-03
Location Richmond and Norfolk and more or less contiguous points in between map
Cook PVI D + 20
Representative Bobby Scott (D)
VoteView 98.5
First elected 1992
2008 margin Unopposed
2006 margin Unopposed
2004 margin 69-31
Obama margin 76-24
Bush margin 2004 33-66
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 53rd most veterans (15.5%), 59th fewest Whites (37.7%), 16th most Blacks (56%)
Assessment Safe
District: VA-04
Location Southeastern VA map
Cook PVI R + 4
Representative Randy Forbes (R)
VoteView 339
First elected 2001
2008 margin 60-40 over Andrea Miller
2006 margin 76-23
2004 margin 64-35
Obama margin 50-49
Bush margin 2004 57-43
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 34th most veterans (16.2%), 38th most Blacks (33.1%), 91st fewest Latinos (2.0%)
Assessment Long shot
District: VA-05
Location Central southern VA, north to Charlottesville map
Cook PVI R + 5
Representative Thomas Perrielo (D)
VoteView 353
First elected 2008
2008 margin 745 votes out of about 300,000 over Virgil Goode
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 48-51
Bush margin 2004 56-43
Current opponents At least 4 Republicans
Demographics 10th most rural (64.0%), 68th most Blacks (23.9%), 67th fewest Latinos (1.6%)
Assessment Perrielo ousted Goode, but Goode was nuts. Vulnerable. Periello has raised $400K
District: VA-06
Location Northwestern VA, bordering WV, including Roanoke map
Cook PVI R + 12
Representative Bob Goodlatte (R)
VoteView 344
First elected 1992
2008 margin 62-37 over Sam Rassoul
2006 margin 75% against minor parties
2004 margin Unopposed
Obama margin 42-57
Bush margin 2004 63-36
Current opponents None declared
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Long shot
District: VA-07
Location Richmond and points north and west map
Cook PVI R + 9
Representative Eric Cantor (R)
VoteView 409
First elected 2000
2008 margin 63-37 over Anita Hartke
2006 margin 64-34
2004 margin 75-24
Obama margin 46-53
Bush margin 2004 61-38
Current opponents Charles Diradour
Demographics 90th highest income (median = $51K), 90th fewest Latinos (2.0%)
Assessment Long shot.
District: VA-08
Location DC suburbs map
Cook PVI D + 16
Representative James Moran (D)
VoteView 57.5
First elected 1990
2008 margin 68-30 over Mark Ellmonre
2006 margin 66-31
2004 margin 60-37
Obama margin 69-30
Bush margin 2004 35-64
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 68th highest income (median = $63K), 48th most nonBlack, nonLatino, nonWhites (mostly 9.5% Asians)
Assessment Safe
District: VA-09
Location map
Cook PVI R + 11
Representative Rick Boucher (D)
VoteView 180
First elected 1982
2008 margin Unopposed
2006 margin 59-39
2004 margin 59-39
Obama margin 40-59
Bush margin 2004 60-39
Current opponents Jim Bebout
Demographics 7th most rural (65.9%), 24th lowest income (median = $30K), 27th most Whites (93.3%), 27th fewest Latinos (1.1%)
Assessment Looks safe
District: VA-10
Location map
Cook PVI R + 2
Representative Frank Wolf (R)
VoteView 266
First elected 1980
2008 margin 59-39 over Judy Feder
2006 margin 57-41
2004 margin 64-36
Obama margin 53-46
Bush margin 2004 55-44
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 10th highest income (median = $72K), 76th most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatino (6.6% Asian, 1.9% multiracial),
Assessment Long shot
District: VA-11
Location map
Cook PVI D + 2
Representative Gerald Connolly (D)
VoteView 279
First elected 1994
2008 margin 55-35 over Keith Fimian
2006 margin 55-44
2004 margin 60-38
Obama margin 57-42
Bush margin 2004 50-49
Current opponents Fimian is running again, as is Paul Miller, and maybe others
Demographics Highest income (median = $80K), 41st most veterans (15.9%), 40th most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatino (10.9% Asian, 2.6% multiracial)
Assessment Look reasonably safe
District: WA-01
Location North of Seattle on both sides of Puget Sound map
Cook PVI D + 9
Representative Jay Inslee (D)
VoteView 62.5
First elected 1998
2008 margin 68-32 over Larry Ishmael
2006 margin 68-32
2004 margin 66-34
Obama margin 62-36
Bush margin 2004 43-56
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 46th highest income (median = $59K), 67th fewest Blacks (1.8%), 53rd most nonWhite, nonLatino, nonBlacks (7.9% Asian, 3.1% multiracial)
Assessment Safe
District: WA-02
Location Northwestern WA, but east of Strait of Georgia and Puget Sound; bordering Canada, including many islands in the strait and sound. map
Cook PVI D + 3
Representative Rick Larsen (D)
VoteView 177
First elected 2000
2008 margin 62-38 over Rick Bart
2006 margin 64-36
2004 margin 64-34
Obama margin 56-42
Bush margin 2004 47-51
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 32nd most veterans (16.3%), 36th fewest Blacks (1.1%)
Assessment Safe
District: WA-03
Location Southwestern WA, bordering OR and the Pacific map
Cook PVI Even
Representative Brian Baird (D)
VoteView 163
First elected 1998
2008 margin 64-36 over Michael Delavar
2006 margin 63-37
2004 margin 62-38
Obama margin 53-49
Bush margin 2004 50-48
Current opponents David Castillo and Jon Russell
Demographics 34th most veterans (16.2%), 42nd fewest Blacks (1.2%)
Assessment Safe
District: WA-04
Location Central WA, bordering OR, including Yakima map
Cook PVI R + 13
Representative Doc Hastings (R)
VoteView 350
First elected 1994
2008 margin 63-37 over George Fearing
2006 margin 60-40
2004 margin 63-37
Obama margin 40-58
Bush margin 2004 63-36
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 27th fewest Blacks (0.8%), 67th most Latinos (26.4%)
Assessment Long shot
District: WA-05
Location Eastern WA, bordering ID and OR, including Spokane and Walla Walla map
Cook PVI R + 7
Representative Cathy Rogers (R)
VoteView 330.5
First elected 2004
2008 margin 65-35 over Mark Mays
2006 margin 56-44
2004 margin 60-40
Obama margin 46-52
Bush margin 2004 57-41
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 34th most veterans (16.2%), 47th fewest Blacks (1.3%)
Assessment Long shot
District: WA-06
Location Northwestern WA, west of Puget Sound, bordering the Pacific and across the Strait of Juan de Fuca from Canada. map
Cook PVI D + 5
Representative Norman Dicks (D)
VoteView 166
First elected 1976
2008 margin 67-33 over Doug Cloud
2006 margin 71-29
2004 margin 69-31
Obama margin 57-41
Bush margin 2004 45-53
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 15th most veterans (19.8%)
Assessment Safe
District: WA-07
Location Seattle map
Cook PVI D + 31
Representative Jim McDermott (D)
VoteView 5
First elected
2008 margin 84-16 over Steve Beren
2006 margin 79-16
2004 margin 81-19
Obama margin 84-15
Bush margin 2004 19-79
Current opponents A primary, but no declared Republicans
Demographics 88th fewest veterans (10.6%), 19th most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatino (13.2% Asian, 3.9% multiracial)
Assessment Safe
District: WA-08
Location Eastern suburbs and exurbs of Seattle map
Cook PVI D + 3
Representative David Reichert (R)
VoteView 248
First elected
2008 margin 52-48 over Darcy Burner
2006 margin 51-49
2004 margin 52-47
Obama margin 57-42
Bush margin 2004 48-51
Current opponents Suzan DelBene and Tom Cramer
Demographics 25th highest income (median = $64K), 78th fewest Blacks (2.0%), 54th most nonBlack, nonWhite, nonLatino (7.8% Asian)
Assessment Vulnerable; DelBene has actually out-raised Reichert (each has raised about $600K), she has a great website, and she sounds like a real progressive. I think I'll send her some money.
District: WA-09
Location Eastern shore of Puget Sound map
Cook PVI D + 9
Representative Adam Smith (D)
VoteView 183
First elected 1996
2008 margin 66-34 over James Postma
2006 margin 66-34
2004 margin 63-34
Obama margin 58-40
Bush margin 2004 46-53
Current opponents Dick Muri
Demographics 17th most veterans (17.2%), 37th most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatino (7.1% Asian, 4.2% multiracial)
Assessment Safe
District: WV-01
Location Northern WV, bordering OH, PA, and MD map
Cook PVI R + 9
Representative Alan Mollohan (D)
VoteView 171
First elected 1982
2008 margin Unopposed
2006 margin 64-36
2004 margin 68-32
Obama margin 42-57
Bush margin 2004 58-42
Current opponents At least 4 Republicans
Demographics 67th most rural (46.3%), 28th lowest income (median = $30K), 8th most White (95.8%), 64th fewest Blacks (1.7%), 7th fewest Latinos (0.7%)
Assessment I'm not sure what's going on; Mollohan wins easily. Is he retiring?
District: WV-02
Location A wiggly strip across central WV, from west to east; borders OH, WV, and MD map
Cook PVI R + 8
Representative Shelley Capito (R)
VoteView 261
First elected 2000
2008 margin 57-43 over Anne Barth
2006 margin 57-43
2004 margin 57-41
Obama margin 44-55
Bush margin 2004 57-42
Current opponents David Harless (I could not find a website)
Demographics 34th most rural (53.8%), 68th lowest income (median = $33K), 27th most White (93.9%), 11th fewest Latinos (0.8%)
Assessment Long shot
District: WV-03
Location Southern WV, bordering KY and VA map
Cook PVI R + 6
Representative Nick Rahall (D)
VoteView 156.5
First elected 1976
2008 margin 67-33 over Marty Gearhart
2006 margin 69-31
2004 margin 65-35
Obama margin 42-56
Bush margin 2004 53-46
Current opponents Marty Gearhart and Lee Bias
Demographics 4th most rural (61.6%), 3rd lowest income (median = $26K), 27th most White (93.9%), fewest Latinos (0.6%)
Assessment Safe
District: WI-01
Location Southeastern WI, bordering IL and Lake Michigan. map
Cook PVI R + 2
Representative Paul Ryan (R)
VoteView 400
First elected 1998
2008 margin 64-35 over Marge Krupp
2006 margin 63-37
2004 margin 65-33
Obama margin 51-47
Bush margin 2004 54-46
Current opponents Paulette Garin
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Long shot
District: WI-02
Location Central southern WI, including Madison map
Cook PVI D + 15
Representative Tammy Baldwin (D)
VoteView 10
First elected 1998
2008 margin 69-31 over Peter Theron
2006 margin 63-37
2004 margin 63-37
Obama margin 69-40
Bush margin 2004 37-62
Current opponents Chad Lee
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe
District: WI-03
Location Southwestern WI, bordering MN and IA, including Eau Claire map
Cook PVI D + 4
Representative Ron Kind (D), may run for Governor
VoteView 185
First elected 1996
2008 margin 63-35 over Paul Stark
2006 margin 65-35
2004 margin 56-43
Obama margin 58-41
Bush margin 2004 48-51
Current opponents Dan Kapanke
Demographics 23rd most rural (56.9%), 5th most White (96.1%), 11th fewest Blacks (0.5%), 17th fewest Latinos (0.9%)
Assessment Safe if Kind runs; otherwise, unclear
District: WI-04
Location Milwaukee and some suburbs map
Cook PVI D + 22
Representative Gwen Moore (D)
VoteView 7
First elected 2004
2008 margin 89-11 over an independent
2006 margin 71-28
2004 margin 70-28
Obama margin 75-24
Bush margin 2004 30-70
Current opponents Dan Sebring
Demographics 67th lowest income (median = $33K), 92nd fewest Whites (50.4%), 39th most Blacks (33.0%)
Assessment Safe
District: WI-05
Location Northern suburbs of Milwaukee map
Cook PVI R + 12
Representative James Sensenbrenner (R)
VoteView 427
First elected 1978
2008 margin 80-20 over Robert Raymond
2006 margin 62-36
2004 margin 67-32
Obama margin 41-58
Bush margin 2004 64-36
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 47th highest income (median = $58K), 24th most Whites (94%), 47th fewest Blacks (1.3%)
Assessment Long shot
District: WI-06
Location Central part of eastern WI, along Lake Michigan, including Sheboygan and Oshkosh map
Cook PVI R + 4
Representative Thomas Petri (R)
VoteView 390
First elected 1979
2008 margin 64-36 over Roger Kittelson
2006 margin unopposed
2004 margin 67-31
Obama margin 50-49
Bush margin 2004 57-43
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 94th most rural (39.3%), 22nd most Whites (94.1%)
Assessment Long shot
District: WI-07
Location Northwestern WI, bordering MN, MI and Lake Superior map
Cook PVI D + 3
Representative David Obey (D)
VoteView 93
First elected 1969
2008 margin 61-39 over Dan Mielke
2006 margin 62-35
2004 margin 86% against minor parties
Obama margin 56-42
Bush margin 2004 49-50
Current opponents Dan Mielke
Demographics 21st most rural (58%), 14th most Whites (95.1%), fewest Blacks (0.3%), 17th fewest Latinos (0.9%)
Assessment Safe
District: WI-08
Location Northeastern WI, bordering MI and Lake Michigan, including Green Bay map
Cook PVI R + 2
Representative Steve Kagen (D)
VoteView 155
First elected 2006
2008 margin 54-46 over John Gard
2006 margin 51-49
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 53-45
Bush margin 2004 55-44
Current opponents At least 3 Republicans
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Vulnerable. Kagen has raised $400 K, which isn't bad, but he ran barely ahead of Obama
District: WY-01
Location Wyoming map
Cook PVI R + 20
Representative Cynthia Lummis (R)
VoteView 352
First elected 53-43 over Gary Trauner
2008 margin 2008
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 33-65
Bush margin 2004 69-29
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 44th most veterans (15.8%), 74th most Whites (88.9%), 23rd fewest Blacks (0.7%)
Assessment Long shot