Last night while we were all wondering what else we could discuss that doesn't include health care, I mentioned that the Pakistani military seems poised to enter South Waziristan with force. My reasons for believing that were due to the reported urging of civilians to leave for the past few weeks, the end of Ramadan, and the tripling of aid to Pakistan.
David Ignatius of the Washington Post, who has been great reporting on the news from the region, has a must-read in today's edition.
Regarding the civilian exodus, Ignatius says approximately 80,000 civilians have left South Waziristan. Somewhere between 10,000-20,000 "hard-core" fighters are thought to remain in the area, which most likely includes Al-Qaeda fighters. Rememeber, this is the area bin Laden is thought to be sheltered in.
The operation is set to begin sometime this month.
The army has code-named the operation "Rahe Nijat," which the commander here translates loosely as "The Way to Get Rid of Them." The assault could start within the next month.
Rather than a "search and destroy" operation, the Pakistani military and the more-local Frontier Corps seems set for a "clear and hold" operation. Eighty U.S. Special Forces are training and advising the commanders that will be given charge of the operation.
South Waziristan's terrain makes it nightmarish for any outside force. It will not be half as easy as the Swat Valley was. Past operations in the area have failed. However, Pakistan has a number of things going for it that it didn't have before; public opinion against the Taliban, many drones with better intelligence-sharing with the U.S., better equipment, a fractured enemy, fatter wallets, and an area that has been mostly-cleared of civilians. We'll see what October holds.