Michigan's U-6 Unemployment average for 2008-2009 is 19.2%. That's the AVERAGE. Today, it's much worse. Fortunately, unemployment benefits have reduced the effects of unemployment on our states. Yet at some point political will to renew unemployment extensions will end.
Then what?
Almost as potent as my fear that there will be no substantive economic recovery in the US is my fear that an economic recovery in just enough of the US would strip the political will to craft legislation that helps those in states still deeply mired in economic rubble.
Take, for example, what's happening with the most recent unemployment benefit extensions.
After almost a month of wrangling over what should have been a rapid, emergency process, the Senate has finally, supposedly reached a dealthat would extend unemployment benefits by 14 weeks for all states and 20 weeks for states with unemployment above 8.5%. Yeah. They hope to vote on it some time next week. Reid tried to speed the process through and then Republican Sen. Jon Kyl of Arizona put a stomp on it.
**drums fingers on the table**
He wants more time to stew over the bill. At 9.1% Arizona's unemployment level makes it eligible for the most generous portions of the bill...are you hearing that, Arizona?
Something wrong with extending benefits by 14 to 20 weeks?\
It's desperately needed. And Right Now.
20 weeks.
Five months.
If anything, it's not nearly ENOUGH.
I know people who have been out of work for over a year. In August, the most recent report, Muskegon's unemployment was 16.1%, and that's using the more generous U-3 figures...it tops well over 20% otherwise.
So, you know, I guess I don't expect to see a gush of jobs in five months. For example, five months ago Muskegon's unemployment was at 16.8%
20 weeks in the future, when the proposed extension ends, what then?
Another extension? Maybe? If we're lucky.
Then another one? Maybe?
Then another one?
Right.
What then?
These extensions are one of just a few fragile things keeping our current downturn from being materially as devastating as the early stages of the Great Depression.
Each time we go back to the legislature to get an unemployment extension it's going to be more difficult. The political will it going to get stretched thin. Worse, the very unemployment benefits that make society seem to run more or less normally will reduce the sense of urgency, especially as Republicans scream about the cost.
We're already seeing this play out in our legislature right now.
What would I like to see?
Honestly, I'd like to see
- More public works projects until things turn around. Put those dollars and people to work rather than just waiting around hoping the private sector works its magic and hires people sooner rather than later.
- States and the Fed need to create more relaxed laws for those who wish to start a small business while collecting unemployment.
- Federal assistance and counseling for people who wish to start their own businesses that would employ people. The banks we bailed out with our tax dollars aren't lending to small business.
I follow credit, and credit is contracting. Access to credit is being denied at an accelerating pace. Large, well-capitalized companies have no problem finding credit. Small businesses, on the other hand, have never had a harder time getting a loan.
This needs to change NOW. If the banks won't lend to small biz, the government needs to do it directly.
If you can't tell, I'm a huge advocate for small business. It's the largest driver of new jobs in America, and that's what we need now more than anything.
Small business moves wealth back into communities, and decentralizes the concentration of money that would otherwise be used to unfairly influence public policy in favor of huge corporate interests.
It's in everybody's best interest