As the author of the Wrap-Up goes through day two of laptop withdrawals, there are quite a few items in the political world that are worth a look-see...
NJ-Gov: PPP Poll Just The Latest To Confirm Close Race
Democrats have to be both pleased, and mildly disappointed, with the new numbers offered this morning by the pollsters over at PPP. After Tom Jensen teased on Saturday in a post on Twitter that Corzine had taken a strong edge, the Christie folks answered their phones during the remainder of the weekend. The net result: a one-point lead for Chris Christie over Democratic incumbent Jon Corzine (40-39-13). The good news for Corzine: Christie is losing votes to Chris Daggett, while Corzine is consolidating Democratic support. The bad news for Corzine: half of Daggett's supporters are not committed to their guy, and they like Christie (48-34) quite a bit more than they like Corzine.
VA-Gov: Rasmussen Splitting Difference Between Previous Polls
Rasmussen's polling on the Virginia Gubernatorial election has been a little erratic over the last few weeks. After raising the hopes of VA Dems by showing Deeds down just two points a few weeks backs, they sent Democratic hopes crashing back to earth last week by showing Republican Bob McDonnell leading by nine points. Today, they fall somewhere in-between, with McDonnell holding onto a seven-point edge (50-43). In other VA campaign news, the candidates held a debate last night, which was widely viewed as nothing that will rattle the status-quo.
PA-Sen: Both Democrats Lead Toomey, According to New Poll
A new poll out today in the Keystone State by Dane and Associates (PDF File) shows that either Democratic incumbent Arlen Specter or Democratic challenger Joe Sestak would defeat likely GOP nominee Pat Toomey in an election. The surprising twist: Sestak (43-38) actually fares better than does Specter (46-43). There's one math thing that someone more gifted than I can try to explain. A typical statewide poll has 600 respondents and a sampling margin of error of +/- 4%. This poll has just over 400 respondents, but claims a margin of error of 3.5%. How, exactly, is that possible?
IL-Sen: Kirk Campaign Claims Lead In Internal Poll
You always need to take internal polls with a grain (or twenty grains) of salt, and this new poll from Magellan Research on behalf of Republican Senate aspirant Mark Kirk in Illinois appears to be no exception. The internal poll gives Kirk a lead of seven points in the general election over Democrat Alexi Giannoulias (42-35), while it shows Kirk with an almost impossible to believe fifty-eight point lead (61-3) in a prospective GOP primary against Patrick Hughes, who seems to be consolidating some support on the right in Illinois.
TX-Sen: Resignation May Not Be In KBH's Immediate Future
This is somewhat surprising, and potentially problematic for Democratic fortunes in the Lone Star State. Kay Bailey Hutchison might be her previous intentions to resign from her Senate seat later in the year, thus necessitating a special election for her seat in May. Democrats have two legitimate candidates in the offing for that race (Houston Mayor Bill White and former state comptroller John Sharp), both of whom have soundly outraised the leading GOP candidate, railroad commissioner Michael Williams.
THE MONEY CHASE: A Couple of Eye-Poppers In the Tuesday Releases
As more and more campaigns turn over their cards for the 3rd quarter of the 2009 campaign cycle, there are a couple of whoppers. Highest on the list is Democrat Raj Goyle in KS-04, who raised over 400,000 dollars in his bid to claim the open seat being abandoned by Republican Todd Tiahrt (running for the Senate). Meanwhile, in Connecticut, Senate candidate Rob Simmons improved on his second quarter numbers, but still was held under a million dollars (he topped out at $970K). One of Simmons' chief rivals for the GOP nod, former ambassador Tom Foley, had a disappointing haul of just over $280K, which he augmented with a half-million from his own account. We have yet to hear from WWE executive Linda McMahon, but one can imagine she can self-fund to her heart's content. Meanwhile, in Colorado appointed incumbent Senator Michael Bennet (D) easily outpaced both his Democratic and Republican challengers, announcing a take of over a million dollars for the third quarter. One House Republican reported her first set of numbers, as former state GOP chairwoman Robin Smith's haul in TN-03 was good-but-not great ($149K). It was slightly better than Republican challenger Justin Bernier's numbers in CT-05, where the likely opponent for sophomore Democrat Chris Murphy took in $120K for the quarter. Lastly, an interesting primary is developing in SC-04, where incumbent Bob Inglis is apparently not wingnutty enough for some Republicans there. He raised just one hundred thousand dollars, which was almost identical to what his two primary opponents (Trey Gowdy and David Thomas). Keep an eye on that race. Two campaigns with underwhelming totals: Democrat Cheryle Jackson in the Illinois Senate race (less than 400K), and Republican Curt Schroder in PA-06 (less than 90K).
MA-Sen: Coakley racks up the endorsements
There's no question that Martha Coakley is the official establishment candidate in the MA-Sen Democratic primary: she has now been endorsed by half of the Democrats in the state legislature. Some number of these endorsements are no doubt cases where, seeing her as the sure winner, people are endorsing to be on good terms with the state's next senator. Bob at Blue Mass Group points out, though, that this could be "a very two-edged sword in this year of the Great Recession" and troubled in-state politics. As he notes, Mike Capuano can't run as an outsider, but either Alan Khazei or Steve Pagliuca could benefit from doing so. --(Laura Clawson)
IN OTHER NEWS....
- The folks at Ballot Box give readers the lowdown on a trio of elections being held tonight that are worth an eyeball: the Memphis Mayoral race, a critical special election that could flip the balance of power in the Tennessee State Legislature, and another special election in Oklahoma.
- Crisitunity over at SSP, as he often does, takes a fascinating look at the demographic changes that have been visited upon America's congressional districts. Today, the focus is on changes in racial composition.
- Buried in an article about Colorado Democratic Senator Michael Bennet's fundraising (see above) is an interesting rumor floating around that state--that GOP Senate candidate Ryan Frazier might be leaving the Senate race to focus on a Congressional bid. It would seem that such a move would pit Frazier, an Aurora city council member, against sophomore Rep. Ed Perlmutter.
- Heath Shuler has landed a fairly legitimate 2010 GOP challenger, as Greg Newman, the mayor of a mid-sized town in the district (Hendersonville), is throwing his hat in the ring.
- For a guy who has such a big alleged political target on his back, the GOP is sure having a tough time finding someone to take on Democratic freshman Rep. Alan Grayson (FL-08). The latest prominent Republican to say no is Dan Webster, a former House speaker who was expected to make a go of it after Orange County Executive Rich Crotty said no.
- Via Desmoinesdem at Swing State Project, a pair of House incubments in the state of Iowa now have at least semi-legitimate challengers for 2010. In IA-01, Democrat Bruce Braley will apparently face Dubuque businessman Rod Blum. Meanwhile, out west in uber-conservative IA-05, Republican wingnut Steve King will face off against twenty-something banker Mike Denklau.
- It isn't just Democratic governors that are feeling the pinch of the economic and political realities of 2009. If he were eligibile for re-election, how do you think California's GOP Governor, Arnold Schwarzenegger, would fare with approval ratings like this?
- And this little bit of late breaking news: Democrat Robert Wexler will apparently resign from Congress tomorrow, as he apparently will be taking a
high-caliber position in the Obama administration a private-sector position, perhaps at a think tank (according to the diary on the rec list by JR).