Over the past months, I've profiled every House race (all 435). It took me 19 diaries.
In this diary, I go through those and pick out the races I thought might be competitive. This is part 4 of what will be 5
NE-02 Lee Terry (R), the incumbent, has been the rep here since 1998. In 2008, he had his closest race in years, winning just 52-48 over Jim Esch; Obama won 50-49. Tom White, the challenger in 2010, has raised $200K and spend almost nothing; Terry has raised about $500K, but spent about half of that. 3rd quarter fundraising was very close. This could be interesting.
NV-03 Dina Titus (D) is the incumbent; she's a freshman, who won 47-42 in 2008, not exactly a huge win. But Obama got 55% here, Titus has raised over $700K, and she doesn't seem to have a serious opponent.
NH-01 The incumbent is Carol Shea-Porter (D), first elected in 2006. In 2008, she won by just 6 points, and Obama won 53-46. She has so far raised $373K, and her main opponent, Frank Guinta, has raised $216K, but in the 3rd quarter they raised almost identical amounts. A recent poll shows the race very close.
NH-02 The incumbent, Paul Hodes (D) is retiring to run for Senate. Obama won fairly easily (56-43) and Bush lost both times, but it's an open seat. The Democrat (Ann Kuster) has raised $343K, none of the Republicans have raised much.
NJ-03 The incumbent is John Adler (D), and he has raised over $1.3 million. He's a freshman, and had a close race in 2008. Obama won in 2008, but Bush won in 2004. This might be close, but there do not seem to be any Republican challengers.
NJ-07 The incumbent is Leonard Lance (R), a freshman; he won 51-42 in 2008, but Obama won narrowly. He has raised about $500K. This might be close, but there do not seem to be any Democratic challengers.
NM-02 The incumbent is Harry Teague (D), a freshman. He won easily in 2008, but McCain won the district narrowly. So far, Teague has raised $918K, and his opponent Steve Pearce, has raised about $500K. Pearce was the rep. here, but he retired to run for Senate. This could be close.
NY-03 would probably only be competitive if the incumbent (Peter King, R) ran for senate, but that appears not to be happening.
NY-13 The incumbent is Michael McMahon (D) a freshman who won very easily in 2008, but that was after the former rep (Fosella) was totally embarrassed in a scandal involving his bigamy. McCain won narrowly here. But no Republican seems to be running and McMahon has raised $813K
NY-20 the incumbent is Scott Murphy (D) who won a special election to replace Kirsten Gillibrand. This would probably be close, but no Republican is running yet.
NY-23 There will be a special election here on Nov 3, 2009, to replace John McHugh (R) who was appointed to be secretary of the Army by Obama. It looks close between Bill Owens (D), Dede Scozzafava (R) and Doug Hoffman, running as a conservative. The latest polls show Owens slightly ahead.
NY-24 The incumbent is Mike Arcuri (D), first elected in 2006, who won narrowly over Richard Hanna in 2008. Obama also won narrowly. But no Republican has entered the race, and Arcuri has raised over $570K.
NY-29 The incumbent is Eric Massa (D) who won 51-49 over Randy Kuhl in 2008, but McCain also won here. His opponent is Tom Reed. Massa has raised $819K to Reed's $136K, but Reed entered the race relatively recently.
OH-01 The incumbent is Steve Dreihaus (D), a freshman who won 51-49 in 2008 over Steven Chabot, who is running in a rematch. In 2008, Obama probably helped Black turnout in this district, which has many Blacks, but Dreihaus is now the incumbent. Each candidate has raised about $600K. Will probably be close.
OH-02 This is a heavily Republican district, but the incumbent is the truly odious Jean Schmidt, who has called Marines cowards. In 2008, she won in a 3 way race, but got less than 50% of the vote. Her opponent this time is likely to be David Krikorian. Schmidt has raised less than $400K (not very good for an incumbent in a contested race) and Krikorian has raised $162K. But in the 3rd quarter, each raised identical amounts. Might be close.
OH-15 This was one of the closest races in 2008; the incumbent, Mary Jo Kilroy (D), won by just 311 votes over the Steve Stivers. Stivers is up for a re-match. Kilroy has raised over $750K, and Stivers $401K. 3rd quarter fundraising was just about equal.
sources:
http://electoral-vote.com/...
http://www.swingstateproject.com/...