Something doesn't add up. I mean, we have the obvious republican hypocrisy about the public option and cost. (the public option will reduce cost, but cost-conscious democrats oppose it, but claim the opposition is ideological)
However, I count at least 3 likely democrat 'no' votes on healthcare for the senate:
Joe Lieberman here
Ben Nelson here
Blanche Lincoln here
Yet at the same time, Harry Reid insists that the public option will be in the final bill, and it will pass. So does Schumer here.
Not only that, but we see on CNN, HuffPo, and other places articles expressing surprise that the public option "may not be dead yet" and "waning hopes for healthcare reform". What is going on?
I wonder if this, this and this have anything to do with it.
Let me delve into a little conspiracy-theory type scenario:
With all of the running around, closed door meetings, and other sausagemaking, is it possible that a few republicans have privately called Harry Reid and told him they'll vote for cloture? I know two of the articles are talking about possible healthcare reform defectors in the house, but the senate is a possibility too.
Here are a few possibilities:
- A couple republicans have been bought off with healthy earmarks to be slipped in at committee in exchange for a cloture vote (this could happen even without a yea vote on the final bill).
- A couple of republicans have been swayed by the huge outpouring of support for healthcare reform.
- A couple of republicans have family members who have been hurt by the healthcare system in a really horrible way. Assuming that, of the 44 republicans and DINO's in the senate, the 880 to 4400 people in their close circles, combined with a 0.5% recission rate, suggests that between 5 and 25 of those people would be screwed by health insurance companies. It would only take one case to make someone want to get revenge. Two or three republicans with a vendetta might be a dangerous thing.
- A bloc of republicans are going to make a 'power play' within the caucus to unseat their hawkish leadership and try to take control of the caucus. In this case, these republicans (10, 12?) in the senate would vote in favor of cloture and the bill, and launch a media blitz at the last minute as moderates. They would dominate the news cycles for days afterwards, and it would make quite the high-risk, high-payoff gamble.
- It's not just the health insurance lobby that has influence and power. Some big businesses may see an economic advantage in healthcare reform. (lower costs against overseas competition for example). They may have communicated this to their puppets and/or Harry Reid, letting him know that they will deliver those votes.
- A number of religious republicans may have decided to heed Jesus's words on caring for the sick.
- There is no intention of going down the 60-vote path, but instead the path of reconciliation, despite what Harry says.
- The nuclear option.
Please share what you think?