Some here are ranting and raving about Joe Lieberman, and rightfully so. I'm not here to defend Joe Lieberman's Democratic bona fides (obviously he has none). What I am here to say is that it's very likely that this is just political posturing, and to take what he says to be THE final word on how Joe Lieberman will vote, is to misunderstand Joe Lieberman. He is by nature, a poltical creature, and this is by nature, a political, and not an ideological move for Lieberman, which leads me to agree with Harry Reid that Lieberman is the least of the Democrats' problems in passing reform.
While traditional media (aided by certain dailykos front pagers) will paint this as a crushing blow to Reid, and look to write yet another obituary for the Public Option, I hope to lay out to you that it's far more likely that Lieberman is making a political power grab, while hoping to ultimately take the steam out of any 2012 challenge movement. Follow me for some (hopefully) educated speculation that is just as plausible as anything else.
Put yourself in the position of an extremely power hungry man, who is facing an almost certain bitter fight for re-election. Wouldn't you take any opportunity to position yourself as a key player in what will be the biggest bill to come through Congress this year, and probably the biggest piece of legislation in some time? Of course you would.
I don't think anyone disagrees with that. What some seem to be jumping to conclude however, is that Lieberman is doing this so that he can kill health care reform or the public option. I find it very hard to imagine that Lieberman would like to see either happen. After all as Jed Lewison points out, he has vigorously supported the Public Option in the past. So what's more likely? That Joe Lieberman has had a change of heart on such a big issue or that Joe Lieberman sees this as a political opportunity. I think the obvious answer is that Lieberman is a political opportunist. The real question is what is his endgame?
I submitt to you that his probable endgame is to position himself early as on the fence about whether he will vote for cloture, just to vote for cloture in the end. This would do two things:
- Give him bargaining power to make sure the bill has all kinds of perks for CT companies etc.
- Deflate a 2012 challenge. If Lieberman is the guy who ultimately casts the last vote which brings the bill to a vote, it will be harder to rally the troops against him.
Maybe Joe Lieberman is plotting to derail health reform. But maybe Joe Lieberman is trying to become the next Olympia Snowe--a political moderate who positions themselves at the middle of legislative battles so that they can deliver in the end and get all the credit. If I'm right and it's the latter, all that is going to be required is that the Democrats sit down at the negotiationg table with him, promise him they won't support his opponent in 2012, maybe even roll out Obama to campaign for him.
The question is, should we do that just to get health care done?
Update: To clarify...nobody on the front page has called the public option dead...however mcjoan's calling for the immediate stripping of his chairmanship aides the TM's meme because that is something you would do only if it was futile to bargain