If there was ever a part of this planet where the natural societal evolution tended toward small sovereign states formed along tribal and geographical boundaries, surely it must be Afghanistan.
The boundaries of Afghanistan (previously Khurasan until 1750) more or less came about in 1747 as the result of Ahmad Shah Abdali who defeated the Moghuls and expanded the borders to include parts of Persia, all of modern day Pakistan, and part of modern day Inida.
I found a chronology of Afghanistan's history on Afghanistan Online. Some common threads emerge.
1747-1773
Rule of Ahmad Shah Abdali
1773-1793
Constant internal revolts
1793-1801
Constant internal revolts
1801-1803
Constant internal revolts
1803-1809
Internal fighting
1809-1818
Internal fighting
1819-1826
Civil War - anarchy
1832-1833
Conflict with Persia over territory
1834-
Parts of modern day Pakistan break away from Afghanistan
1836-
British invade Afghanistan
1839-1842
First Anglo-Afghan War; Akbar Khan victorious against the British
1859-
British take Baluchistan leaving Afghanistan completely landlocked.
1865-
Russia takes Bukhara, Tashkent, and Samarkand.
1878-1880
Second Anglo-Afghan War; British withdraw from Afghanistan, but retain the right to handle Afghanistan's foreign relations.
1885-
Russia takes possession of Panjdeh, Afghanistan is unable to retake it
1893-1895
Borders of Afghanistan and British India fixed, splitting Afghan tribal areas, leaving half of these Afghans in what is now Pakistan.
1918-
First newspapers in Afghanistan
1919-1921
Third Anglo-Afghan War; the British are defeated, and Afghanistan gains full control of her foreign affairs; attempts at modernization begin.
1929-
1st, 2nd, and 3rd successful coups d'etat; modernization reforms are abolished
1933-
King Nadir Kahn assassinated
1947-
British withdraw from India; Pakistan created from Indian and Afghan land.
1949-
Afghans denounce border with Pakistan and refuse to recognize it; Pashtuns in Pashtunistan (Occupied Afghan Land) proclaim an independent Pashtunistan, but their proclamation goes unacknowledged by the world community.
1955-1964
Conflict with Pakistan over Pashtunistan
1965
1st nationwide elections under new constitution; rioting
1973
Military coup; monarchy overthrown; Republic of Afghanistan formed
1978
Bloody communist coup; mass arrests, tortures; Mujahideen is born
1979
Mass killings; U.S. ambassador killed; Coup; Soviet Union invades
1989
Soviet Union defeated; withdraws troops after losing 40,000-50,000 troops; Mujahideen continues to fight 'puppet government'
1992
Muhajideen victorious; establish Islamic state; Iran and Pakistan instigate fighting via covert operations
1994
Fighting between the newly formed Taliban and the Rabbani government; Kabul reduced to rubble
1996
Taliban is victorious; mass executions of those defeated; new order of repression and human rights violations
1998
United States launches cruise missles hitting Afghanistan's Khost region. US states intent was to destroy terrorist bases/training facilities used by Osama bin Laden and his followers. Some Afghan civilians are also killed.
1998-2000
Taliban continues to eliminate opposition
2001-
First U.S.-Afghan War; Taliban disperses
2001-2009
Internal fighting
An area slightly smaller than Texas, there are 34 provinces in Afghanistan, and hundreds more tribal affiliations. The provinces/would-be nations(?) are:
Badakhshan, Badghis, Baghlan, Balkh, Bamyan, Daykundi, Farah, Faryab, Ghazni, Ghor, Helmand, Herat, Jowzjan, Kabul, Kandahar, Kapisa, Khost, Kunar, Kunduz, Laghman, Logar, Nangarhar, Nimroz, Nuristan, Paktika, Paktiya, Panjshir, Parwan, Samangan, Sar-e Pul, Takhar, Uruzgan, Wardak, Zabul
According to Matthew Hoh, the diplomat who has resigned in protest over doubts about the strategic purpose of our war in Afghanistan, "many Afghans fight US forces because of their presence in the country". He points to similarities with the Soviet Union's occupation of Afghanistan which ended with a humiliating defeat, "Like the Soviets, we continue to secure and bolster a failing state, while encouraging an ideology and system of government unknown and unwanted by its people."
Afghanistan has no real cohesion as a nation, but does have real cohesion at the tribe, valley or province level. What is there to lose if, instead of trying to impose a system of government that does not respect the historical internal conflict in this region, and in which corruption undermines the effort anyway, we offer to allow the provinces to become sovereign states?
Why could we possibly want to stay in Afghanistan?
Could it be $$$ ???
Afghanistan's natural resources as listed in the CIA World Factbook
natural gas, petroleum, coal, copper, chromite, talc, barites, sulfur, lead, zinc, iron ore, salt, precious and semiprecious stones
BBC News - Dec. 4, 1997
A senior delegation from the Taleban movement in Afghanistan is in the United States for talks with an international energy company that wants to construct a gas pipeline from Turkmenistan across Afghanistan to Pakistan.
A spokesman for the company, Unocal, said the Taleban were expected to spend several days at the company's headquarters in Sugarland, Texas.
Unocal says it has agreements both with Turkmenistan to sell its gas and with Pakistan to buy it.
...
A BBC regional correspondent says the proposal to build a pipeline across Afghanistan is part of an international scramble to profit from developing the rich energy resources of the Caspian Sea.
With the various Afghan factions still at war, the project has looked from the outside distinctly unpromising.
The pipeline deal fell through. Unocal merged with Chevron. But from Salon, 2002
A report by an Afghan-born Enron manager in July 2001, for instance, illustrates that company's deep interest in some sort of pipeline deal.
...
In the end, though, the U.S. got its way. Interim Afghan leader [and former Unocal executive] Hamid Karzai decided on May 30 [2002] to revive the pipeline project with Pakistan and Turkmenistan, signing an agreement under which the three governments agree to implement a pipeline from Turkmenistan to Pakistan through Afghanistan [TAP]. Would that U.S. intelligence agencies' investigations into al-Qaida activities in the months before Sept. 11 had such a productive ending.
As of April 2008, the TAP pipeline is now the TAPI pipeline as India joined on to get some o' that fossily stuff. And as an interesting aside, the whole endeavor, the TAP (now TAPI) was a plan formulated to replace Pakistan's previously planned IPI, or Iran - Pakistan - India pipeline, which lo, India withdrew from as of July 2009. But just last month, Pakistan inquired with China about their interest in the IPI pipeline and wouldn'tcha know it, after meetings last month, China is in fact interested.
So is that pipeline the reason General McCrystal believes he needs 40,000 more troops in Afghanistan, given that our stated quarrel was with al Qaeda and not with the people of Afghanistan? Are we bound and determined to get our pipeline finished before Iran gets their pipeline finished, thus securing the trillions in loot for our oil and gas companies, climate concerns be damned? And does this tie in to why we agreed to eat more mangos from India?
I don't know.
I absolutely oppose using our military as the enforcement arm of corporate interests - something that has happened all too often. But how awesome would it be if we, instead of falling into the classic central Asian trap (You only think I guessed wrong! That's what's so funny! I switched glasses pipelines when your back was turned! Ha ha! You fool! You fell victim to one of the classic blunders - The most famous of which is "never get involved in a land war in Asia" - but only slightly less well-known is this: "Never go against a Sicilian when death is on the line"! Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha! Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha! Ha ha ha...) we actually do find a solution that will fit the actual local needs and desires for how they want to be governed. Is it really that radical?