A new poll shows that Doug Hoffman, the Conservative Party candidate for the U.S. House of Representatives in New York's 23rd district, is far ahead of the incumbent moderate Republican candidate and is only one point behind the Democratic challenger.
This is very bad news for the Republican Party. In fact, it might be its deathknell. Why? Because if Hoffman gets elected, he will provide instant credibility to the third-party ultra-conservative movement and a representative for this movement in the hallowed halls of Congress. Many Glen Beck watching, Sarah Palin loving, teabagger Republicans will feel emboldened to leave the Republican Party and join the Conservative Party or like-minded parties such as the Constitution Party -- which is what they have really wanted to do for a long time.
The result? The Republican Party could find itself going "the way of the Whigs," i.e. being supplanted by a third party that will quickly rise to become one of the two major parties in the United States.
The Republican Party is already very unpopular -- not only among the general public, but also among most of its own members. Most Americans regard the Republican Party as too conservative, while most Republicans regard it as too liberal. That's because nearly all moderates have left that party, and all that remains are extreme right-wingers who could never be satisfied with a party that still includes non-fanatical, bland corporatist politicians such as Mitt Romney and Charlie Crist.
What this means is that the "Republican" brand has been destroyed. There is little loyalty to the brand, and its image is so tarnished that many Republicans may be looking for a way to be Republican philosophically without being Republican literally.
The phenomenon of Blue Dog Democrats is largely the result of an exodus of moderates from the Republican Party. Could a similar phenomenon emerge whereby conservatives also leave the Republican Party, seeking a different name and image for themselves?
The election of Doug Hoffman to the U.S. Congress -- who would be the first third party candidate occupying a seat in the federal legislature in decades -- could provide a good excuse for large numbers of disgruntled conservative Republicans to jump ship and join conservative third parties. Credibility means a lot to the potential of third parties, and there is no better way to become instantly credible in the minds of voters than to actually win election to a high office on a third-party ballot line. Following a Hoffman victory, suddenly conservatives all across America would start believing that a conservative third party could really win elections. Interest in the Conservative Party, the Constitution Party, and other similar parties would surge. Their membership rolls and voter registration numbers would spike. And all it would take for one of these parties to "make it big" is....
A national political voice -- such as a Rush Limbaugh, Glen Beck, or Sarah Palin -- to endorse party switching from the Republican Party to a conservative third party.
This could cause a quantum shift nearly overnight. The Republican Party would be finished. Sure, they would linger on for several election cycles, and would continue to hold many high offices in the government for a while, but as their teabagger base abandons them, conservative Republican politicans in safe districts would switch parties along with the base, so that they could get reelected.
Who is the most likely leader to emerge at the forefront of such a conservative third-party movement? Sarah Palin. She already has been connected with a third party in the past (the Alaska Independence Party); she already has a large enough and loyal enough personal following to make a significant run for president as a third party candidate; and she probably knows she could never be nominated by the current Republican Party, so she would have an incentive to go the third-party route.
Running on a third-party ticket, Sarah Palin could easily achieve Nader 2000 numbers, probably Perot 1996 numbers, and possibly even Perot 1992 numbers. It might give birth to a new major political party in the United States, a party which would steal all the "true believer" conservatives from the Republican Party, leaving... nothing but an empty husk of a party, since the moderates have already left the Republicans and typically vote Democratic now.
Sounds far fetched? Well, maybe. I'm just putting the idea out there for consideration. But it might not be so far fetched if Doug Hoffman gets elected to the U.S. Congress on the Conservative Party line. A strong wind would be at the back of the conservative third-party movement. With the Republican Party as unpopular as it is, both within the party and outside it, anything could happen.
What would be the implications for Democrats and progressives of the rise of a conservative third party to compete against and perhaps ultimately replace the Republican Party? I think it would be quite beneficial to our cause. It would ensure the election of more Democrats in the short term, as conservatives would lose elections due to a split in their ranks between two parties, and this would result in larger majorities to pass progressive legislation. In the long run, after the eventual death of the Republican Party by a new conservative party with a different name, America would be faced with a clear choice between a center-left party and a hard-core right-wing party. I suspect the result would be Democratic control of the government for a generation.
Are Republicans that stupid to allow this to happen? If they elect Hoffman to the House and let the Conservative Party have a seat in Congress and all the credibility that comes with that, they are opening the door to all that I have described. The conservative base is fired up, angry, and frustrated with the Republican Party. They are so far from the mainstream of American politics now, and so caught up in their own parallel universe of Fox "News", birtherism, xenophobia, and calling President Obama a socialist (or fascist or whatever other epithets) that they may no longer be able or willing to make rational decisions about political strategy. Thus, the Republican Party may go the way of the Whigs and be replaced by a hard-right teabagger party.