Last night I covered some new truths concerning Wall Street, our economy, and the realities of joblessness in America (See: "
10 Stunning New Truths On Wall St., Economy, Jobless") versus what we're being told (or what's not being stated) by our government, today.
We covered the following new truths (I'm just getting into a slightly deeper-dive on half of the ten items I discussed in last night's diary; over the next few days I'll get into the balance of that commentary):
1.) Joblessness is the worst this country's seen since the Great Depression. In some demographic groups (such as African-Americans and teenagers) it's even worse than it was--at least when one overlays these latest stats on historical references regarding unemployment for the population as a whole--during the Great Depression. It's all
right HERE. One chart pretty much sums up the "BLS' "
Annual Benchmark Revisions to the Establishment Survey" story, IMHO. But, those numbers will not be "officially" included in the narrative until next February. In other words, those 824,000 people I discuss in more detail in the following few paragraphs...we're told
not to think about them, because they don't count until the government tells us so. So, keep on believing the 9.8% U.3 Index stats (but, reality now tells us it's 10.4% unemployment; and, we all know, there's a nasty,
"double-digit unemployment" narrative that'd go along with that meme, right? Think about it. Hell, it might even change a few minds in Washington when it came to putting forward a second stimulus package for Main Street! So, we're tacitly being told that our government will not be a party to
that? Hell, by remaining silent on this, we might as well tell 'em: "Let 'em suffer through the holidays!"
2.) The latest jobless numbers we're hearing from our government (with the latest being the US Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics' September 2009 Employment Situation Report) are significantly understating our current unemployment rate by at least 15%, due to annual benchmark revisions which will not be announced until February 2010. In fact, 824,000 jobless people were, simply, overlooked over the past 12-15 months. This equates to an undercount equivalent to six-tenths of a percent (.6%) in the overall jobless rates we're hearing from our government, even now. And, that just relates to the far-from-complete numbers that are parsed out by the BLS on a monthly basis, because this entire story relates solely to the government's U.3 unemployment index. The U.6 unemployment index, which has just increased to 17% in the latest government unemployment survey, increases these U.3 Index percentages by something in the neighborhood of 75%-80%. So, it's not a stretch to say we should add a half-point (five-tenths of a percent, give or take) to those "official" pronouncements, too. (However, I did not make an allowance for that in my reporting, other than to double the old numbers derived from the latest U.3 Index readings. (In fact, one should add a full percentage point to the blockquoted stats, below, to get a more accurate read.)
3., 4., and 10.) (Numerical reference is to last night's diary, link provided above.)
Perhaps most significantly, as I noted in yesterday's diary, and as we read in that diary as it was stated by former Reagan Administration Assistant Treasury Secretary Paul Craig Roberts, the reality is one must double the U.3 Index numbers to obtain an accurate fix on the real state of unemployment/underemployment in the U.S. And, based upon that assumption, combined with the latest government Employment Situation Report, we arrive at the following real-world unemployment/underemployment numbers for these demographic groups (again, from yesterday's diary):
Adult Men: 20.6%
Adult Women: 15.6%
Teenagers: 51.8%
Whites: 18.0%
Blacks: 30.8%
Hispanics: 25.4%
Asians: 14.8%
Today, after doing a little more research, I've learned that not only does former Reagan administration Assistant Treasury Secretary Paul Craig Roberts tell us that a doubling of the U.3 Index is an accurate reflection on the actual state of joblessness in the U.S., but former Clinton administration Secretary of Labor Robert Reich concurs! (Reich's Wiki bio is available by clicking RIGHT HERE.) (Note: Kossack Kayla9170 had a great post on some of Reich's comments on Friday afternoon, but this DOUBLING of the U.3 Index issue wasn't included in their commentary nor pulled from Reich's statements.) From HuffPo on Friday: "The Truth About Jobs That No One Wants to Tell You."
The Truth About Jobs That No One Wants to Tell You
Robert Reich
Huffington Post
October 2, 2009
Unemployment will almost certainly hit double-digits next year -- and may remain there for some time. And for every person who shows up as unemployed in the Bureau of Labor Statistics' household survey, you can bet there's another either too discouraged to look for work, or working part-time who'd rather have a full-time job or else taking home less pay than before (I'm in the last category, now that the University of California has instituted pay cuts). And there's yet another person who's more fearful that he or she will be next to lose a job.
In other words, ten percent unemployment really means twenty percent underemployment or anxious employment. All of which translates directly into late payments on mortgages, credit cards, auto and student loans, and loss of health insurance. It also means sleeplessness for tens of millions of Americans. And, of course, fewer purchases.
--SNIP--
Unemployment of this magnitude and duration also translates into ugly politics, because fear and anxiety are fertile grounds for demagogues weilding the politics of resentment against immigrants, blacks, the poor, government leaders, business leaders, Jews, and other easy targets. It's already started. Next year is a mid-term election. Be prepared for worse...
So, take a look at those unemployment/underemployment numbers by demographic group, further up the page.
A highly-respected former LABOR Secretary from the Clinton administration is telling us: They are real!
I don't know about you, but I find this real story to be quite overwhelming....in fact, they overwhelm ANY sane argument that could possibly be made against providing additional stimulus funds to Main Street, immediately.
Over the next few days, I'll be providing more substantiation for my commentary from last night's diary. I'll revisit:
how the story's now lapping the "happy news" spin (and, why, even in the near-term, that's a good thing for the current administration);
(we're quickly moving towards historical levels of) poverty;
manufacturing (and some inconvenient truths about other economic statistics that we're hearing--or not hearing--today); and,
the rapidly-changing consensus within the economic community, which is pointing towards extensive, near-term deflation (more folks are using that other "D-word," too), and, eventually, heavy debasement of the U.S. dollar;
the realities concerning some of those Wall Street conspiracy theories that your hearing about (hint: some of those conspiracy theories aren't theories at all, they're completely true and documentable--no tinfoil hat required)
...Yeah, we're just scratching the surface of reality...for Main Street's sake, it's time to take a deeper dive, and to get this reality-based news out to the public, too...