It seems like it has been months, but Republican Congressman Mike Castle of Delaware has finally descended from the fence and made a decision about his future: he wants to move across the hall in the Capitol and join the U.S. Senate:
Nine-term Delaware Republican congressman Michael Castle is running for the U.S. Senate seat vacated by Joe Biden last year after the Democrat was elected vice president.
In a brief, exclusive interview with The Associated Press before his official announcement Tuesday, Castle said he's running because he can do more for Delaware in the Senate.
This immediately changes the calculus of the Senate race, as Democrats defend the open seat created by the elevation of Joe Biden to the Vice-Presidency.
Without exaggeration, it is fair to say that Castle was the only Republican in the state with a chance of flipping this seat to the GOP.
Indeed, recent polling has shown that Castle actually holds a narrow lead over the most likely Democratic entrant into the race, state Attorney General Beau Biden. Without question, it would be one of the most watched races in the campaign cycle. A true toss-up, if ever there was one.
Pundit Stuart Rothenberg, however, thinks that Castle's entry into the race moves it out of "toss-up" territory. He thinks Castle's candidacy makes the GOP the betting favorite:
Even if Attorney General Beau Biden (D) runs for the open Senate seat – certainly not guaranteed given the cordial relations between Castle and Joe Biden over the years, and the fact that Castle would be filling only the last four years of Biden’s unexpired term -- Castle, the former governor who has been elected statewide for over 25 years, has the early advantage in the race.
Despite Rothenberg's skepticism, the general consensus has been that Biden was planning a run for the Senate, regardless of what Castle decided. He is precluded, however, from making a formal declaration one way or another until he is officially discharged from his military obligation (he just returned from the Middle East late last month).
One aspect of the Castle decision that is being overlooked, however, is the fact that this creates an almost certain Democratic takeover of the state's long House seat. Former state Lt. Governor John Carney has been in the race since the Spring, and has already raised an enviable war chest. Furthermore, the GOP bench in Delaware is painfully thin. It is hard to find a way for the GOP to hang onto this seat. (Update: It is worth noting that Rothenberg's team anticipated that Castle was moving either up or out, and designated DE-AL as a Democrat Favored contest a few weeks back).
Castle's decision today also underscores another overlooked aspect of the 2010 election cycle--the strong recruiting job being done on both sides to bring their A-list candidates to the ballot. The NRSC has had a string of successes (Castle, Mark Kirk (IL), Rob Simmons (CT), just to name a few), where they have gotten their top draft picks into the game. So, too, it must be said, have the Democrats, who got Melancon in Louisiana, Hodes in New Hampshire, Carnahan in Missouri, and pairs of viable candidates in Kentucky, Ohio, and Texas.
It all sets the stage for a very intriguing 2009-10 election cycle, particularly in the battle over control of the U.S. Senate.