Fairleigh Dickinson University (PDF), 9/28-10/5, MoE +/- 4%
Jon Corzine (D) 38
Chris Christie (R) 37
Chris Daggett (I) 17
Normally, statistically insignificant "leads" for an incumbent do not inspire celebration among the party faithful. But when the incumbent in question has not led in a single poll (among likely voters) since January 14th, then it's acceptable for Garden State Democrats to do a small happy dance.
This dissolution of the Chris Christie inevitability has come gradually. It began in earnest in August and early September, when the GOP nominee seemed to suffer through an apparent avalanche of self-inflicted ethical mini-scandals.
Right at that point, his once-insurmountable lead in the governors race began to dissipate. That dissipation began to accelerate in past few weeks, when the barrage of bad news cycles for Christie were augmented by the growing sense that he had been less than forthcoming about his prescriptions for the state, a fact so glaring that even the right-leaning Wall Street Journal slapped him around for it last week. His proclivity to avoid details was on display in last week's debate, a debate in which voters according to the FDU poll said he came in a distant third.
Looking at the amalgamation of polling data over the past three months (source for the data can be found here), we can see how precipitous the slide for Christie has been through the summer months:
NJ Governors Race, Average Lead For Chris Christie
July (8 polls) Christie +9.6
August (10 polls) Christie +7.4
Early September (6 polls) Christie +7.2
Late September (5 polls) Christie +3.8
Another disadvantage for Christie is now he is getting hammered from two directions. Both Corzine and Independent candidate Christopher Daggett pounded on the GOP frontrunner for lack of specificity in his plans, which compelled Christie to release an ad which, it would seem, will do little to silence the criticism:
Former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie, the Republican nominee for Governor of New Jersey, seems to be responding to the mounting criticism that he's failed to give specifics on how he would fix the state. In a new TV ad he explains exactly what he'll do -- in the form of generalities.
"Here's exactly what I'll do as governor," Christie says boldly. "I'll cut spending and end the special interest giveaways. I'll cut taxes and restore your property tax rebates. I'll bring good jobs back to New Jersey not chase them to other states. And I'll make sure all our children get the education they deserve."
So, now, in addition to already having his squeaky-clean reputation sullied by the barrage of stories in the summer about his professional and personal ethical transgressions, he now risks being labelled as an empty suit.
Not exactly the message a leading candidate wants to send in the final month of the campaign.
UPDATE: Almost like they were signalled from the Bat Cave or something, in the late afternoon/evening here comes Rasmussen to reassert that Republican Chris Christie is in the lead. Even Rasmussen, though, shows a significant chunk being taken out of the Christie lead, showing Christie up just three points (47-44).