Twice a year, UNC conducts a telephone poll of 600-700 adult North Carolinians for research purposes. The results have traditionally been very accurate as far as predicting election results and other measures of public opinion. For my Poli Public Opinion class, I participated in conducting the poll one night by calling and interviewing some of the randomly selected respondents (I handled 1.2% of the completed interviews). The results were released yesterday, and there were some interesting findings.
Bush's current job approval rating in NC:
Approve: 41%
Disapprove: 51%
When given the "mixed feelings" option, 44% still said they "generally disapprove." (Bush's troubles in the state have even seemingly affected his brother Jeb, who will not find much success if he runs for president in the future. He garners an even 41-41 personal favorability rating.)
Perhaps of greatest worry for Bush in this military state is the fact that only 31% now believe going to war in Iraq was the right decision, and 58% believe it was wrong. That's almost a 2-1 unfavorable margin. Even when given the option that the war's impact has been "a mixed bag," 47% still label it the wrong move.
North Carolinians have a very gloomy picture of where this country is headed too. When given three options (wrong track, right track, and mixed feelings), a solid 44% still said the country is on the wrong track, while only 14% said it is on the right track. When given only right track-wrong track options, the margin is 26-63. That's worse than the national numbers.
This affects North Carolinians' opinions of Bush and the leaders of the federal government, which is dominated by Republicans. Only 32% have warm feelings toward federal leaders, while 24% feel cold, and 41% neutral.
Contrast that with their approval of the job performance of our two-term Democratic Gov. Mike Easley, who is serving the fourth Democratic term in a row, and with their feelings toward the leaders of our state government. 63% approve of Easley's performance, while only 20% disapprove. He has managed to balance our budget every year while keeping his promises to fund education and other priorites, and finally got a lottery passed this summer. Those accomplishments and others cause North Carolinians to be generally much more favorable to their state government than the federal government. 44% feel favorable toward the state leaders, while 40% are neutral, and only 13% feel unfavorably about them.
50% of North Carolinians go to church at least once a week, and 68% go at least once a month. Only 30% attend religious services a few times a year or less.
On a five-tier gradient from very liberal to very conservative, the most common response was "moderate" with 30%. The next common, at 29%, however, was "somewhat conservative." In all, 25% professed to be liberal and 41% to be conservative, either somewhat or very.
Self-identified Democrats are most common at 38%, followed by Republicans with 29%, and then independents with 28%. Clearly a lot of conservatives and moderates fall into the Democratic camp.
Reflecting that partisan makeup, state Democrats have largely succeeded on a moderate, slightly populist path, rather than with traditional liberal platforms. Potential Democratic success on progressive positions is a somewhat mixed big, with probably more negative than positive trends.
On the issue of abortion, when given only two choices, yes or no, on whether a woman should be allowed to have them, 66% said "yes." But when given three choices on when a woman should legally be allowed the choice: always, never, or only under certain circumstances, 44% answered the latter category, but 36% still answered "always."
Unfortunately, a majority (53%) of North Carolinians rejects the idea that evolution is the best explanation for the origin of life, and only 20% stand up for the theory.
56% also reject gay marriage, though 39% support either gay marriage or the concept of civil unions in which gay couples would be allowed all the legal and civil rights of marriage.
North Carolinians do, however, value the environment even over the economy. When asked if the two were in conflict which should have priority, 45% said the environment and 39% the economy. When given a third option that both are equally important, 64% chose that option while only 13% still chose the economy.
In a great window of opportunity for Democrats, 63% support government-guaranteed health insurance for all, while only 28% oppose.
North Carolinians also have a surprisingly open view toward the place of immigrants in the economy. 58% said they believe immigrants mostly take jobs native Americans don't want, while only 30% said they think they mostly take jobs away from Americans. This could minimize the success of anti-immigration policies as a GOP-driven wedge issue in coming years.
Speaking of coming years, 77% say they are open to voting for a female presidential candidate, and only 9% say that if their party nominated a woman, they would not vote for her. This reflects both partisan loyalty and a growing openness to women leaders, such as our Senator, Elizabeth Dole. The most commonly mentioned female candidate, Hillary Clinton, gets a 54% favorability rating (with 42% disapproving). This is higher than I expected but not overwhelmingly promising. Views of Clinton are not affected by the show "Commander in Chief," which 64% have never watched. So cynical critics of the political timing or goal of the show can rest easy, at least for North Carolina.
One problem with the poll is that it's raw data. Even using the method of interviewing the person with the next birthday, 62% of respondents were female. I imagine if the data were weighted, the results would be less favorable toward Democrats.