According to Independent Monitoring Commission "dissident Republican groups are posing their biggest security threat to Northern Ireland for six years." The two main dissident groups are Continuity Irish Republican Army and the Real Irish Republican Army.
In the overview of dissident republican activity over the six months then under review which we gave in our previous report we said that:
- CIRA and RIRA had remained extremely active and dangerous. Both had
engaged in a high level of violence, often with the intention of murdering
members of the security forces and placing the lives of members of the
general public at peril. Dissident republican activity since the early
summer of 2008 had been consistently more serious than at any time
since we had started to report in April 2004.
These republican micro groups are small, weakly supported outfits and have very little influence.
Brendan O’Neill commented ‘The Real IRA and the Continuity IRA are zombie movements. Their violence is better seen, not as the latest manifestation of physical-force Irish republicanism, but as an Irish variant of contemporary nihilism, of the rising trend [...] for executing violent acts in order to express anger, alienation, bitterness, frustration.’
O'Neill continues
The fundamental difference between the Provisional IRA of 1969 to 1994 and the Zombie IRA of today is that where the PIRA used violence as a means to an end (the forceful removal of British troops from Ireland and the ending of Partition), for the RIRA and CIRA violence is the end. The PIRA carried out violent acts – some of which killed British security forces, some of which killed civilians, some of which were well-targeted, some of which were not – as part of its anti-imperialist struggle against Partition and the British domination of Ireland. For today’s Zombie IRA, violent acts are not an expression of a political struggle or an attempt to achieve political aims, but rather a substitute for such things. Lacking a coherent outlook and mass mandate, the RIRA and CIRA now resort to violence in an attempt to etch an identity for themselves, hoping – forlornly – that the use of physical force will create some momentum, or make something happen, or communicate a ‘message’ about who they are and what they want. Violence is a crutch for politics, rather than a physical manifestation of a political programme.
(an update: DawnoftheRedSun contests the notion of a zombie IRA
They have one major target right now.... Sinn Fein. They really feel that the more they can force Gerry Adams and McGuinness into partnership with the PSNI/various unionist parties, the more support they will eventually garner... The situation is very complicated..and it would be a mistake to categorize the dissidents as "zombies". Remember, the Real IRA is made up of the cream of the Provsiononals military/hardline membership..They are dangerous, dedidcated and sure as hell do have a long term strategy.
)
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What also needs to be considered is the the rising Loyalist threat in Northern Ireland. Loyalist violence is also on the increase.
The number of loyalist paramilitary assaults has increased sharply, Northern Ireland's ceasefire watchdog has said.
The Independent Monitoring Commission said that between March and August, 38 people were attacked - the highest number in almost four years.
This figure was more than double the amount in the previous period.
Loyalist violence has increased 245% on the previous year. Republican violence increased 56% on the previous year.
At the Guardian Beatrix Campbell asks "So, is peace in Northern Ireland still threatened by the republicans?"
The answer is no.
In fact, the Provisional IRA has disarmed and disbanded. The Irish National Liberation Army has declared that "armed struggle is over" and promised to decommission. According to the IMC, Sinn Féin and the IRA army council have adhered to their commitment to peaceful politics. The loyalist paramilitary organisations, the UDA, LVF and UVF – despite some acts of decommissioning – have not.
loyalist gangsterism is rife, dangerous and productive, and dissident sects have murdered members of the security forces at a time when diplomats and politicians in Washington, London, Dublin and not least Belfast are desperate to get unionists and republican parties to sign up to "normal" policing.
The IMC notes that it is "inexperienced young men" who are enlisting with the dissident republicans. But it is mute about the sinister synergy between these young men's pessimistic attraction to violence and unionist resistance to "normalisation" of policing and the apparent lack of sanctions against loyalist warlords and their sponsorship of gangsterism. When the IMC reports again in six months' time, it is to be hoped that it finally turns its mind to that scary matrix
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An interesting article by Jason Walsh- he writes about the dissidents "No, I’m the real Irish republican"
But the key question to be asked about the various IRAs is not whether they have a significant capability to inflict damage – clearly they do – but whether or not they have any support. Do they express something, reflect something, win people’s backing, or are they ‘legitimised’ merely by long-gone historic documents and debates? Are they simply ghosts from history correcting the wayward political reality of today?