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I'm sick of hearing people talk about the "Republican resurgence" or the "Anti-Obama backlash." Here are the facts about Virginia and New Jersey.

These two states elect their governors every four years, but the gubernatorial elections happen exactly one year after the Presidential election, which means ten months after the inauguration. And these two states love to vote against the party in office. This has been true since the first Bush.

Forget about the candidates. Forget about the issues. Forget about exit polls and party registration and the economy and all of that other stuff.

VA and NJ like to elect a governor who isn't from the President's party. More below the fold.

In 2008, I used to check electoral-vote.com almost every day -- to see if Obama had enough electoral votes. I still look at it once in a while.

At electoral-vote.com, I recently ran across this table (you may have to scroll down past the map of the U.S.):


YearPresidentVirginia Governor WinnerNew Jersey Governor WinnerNet House
2009Barack Obama (D)Bob McDonnell (R)Chris Christie (R)?
2005George W. Bush (R)Tim Kaine (D)Jon Corzine (D)Dem +31
2001George W. Bush (R)Mark Warner (D)Jim McGreevey (D)GOP +7
1997Bill Clinton (D)Jim Gilmore (R)Christie Whitman (R)Dem +5
1993Bill Clinton (D)George Allen (R)Christie Whitman (R)GOP +54
1989George H.W. Bush (R)Doug Wilder (D)Jim Florio (D)Dem +7
1985Ronald Reagan (R)Gerald Baliles (D)Tom Kean (R)Dem +5
1981Ronald Reagan (R)Chuck Robb (D)Tom Kean (R)Dem +27

Democrats in bold

Notice the trend: Whichever party holds the White House loses VA and NJ. Over and over.

It doesn't mean that the Republicans are on the rise. It doesn't mean that the country suddenly hates Obama. It's just the same old thing that has happened for the last twenty years.

Originally posted to Dbug on Sat Nov 07, 2009 at 01:29 PM PST.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tips for STFU about VA and NJ (3+ / 0-)

    This information will be useful when I'm debating my wingnut friends, who think the 2009 results prove that the country now loves Republicans.

    Listen, strange women lying in ponds distributing swords is no basis for a system of government.

    by Dbug on Sat Nov 07, 2009 at 01:24:59 PM PST

  •  Tips for STFU about VA and NJ (0+ / 0-)

    This gives me ammunition for arguing with my wingnut acquaintances who think the country has suddenly abandoned Obama.

    Listen, strange women lying in ponds distributing swords is no basis for a system of government.

    by Dbug on Sat Nov 07, 2009 at 01:26:09 PM PST

  •  Tips for STFU about VA and NJ (0+ / 0-)

    This is ammunition for arguing with wingnuts who believe the country has abandoned Obama.

    Listen, strange women lying in ponds distributing swords is no basis for a system of government.

    by Dbug on Sat Nov 07, 2009 at 01:27:57 PM PST

  •  In my case it wasn't a vote against Obama - yet. (0+ / 0-)

    My vote for McDonnell was more in protest of Tim Kaine and Rick Boucher and what they've done to Wise County, VA.  http://www.wisecountyissues.com  Am chomping at the bits for 2010 to get here so I can vote against Rick Boucher next.

    There will only be change when those unaffected are as outraged as those who are.

    by quidam56 on Sat Nov 07, 2009 at 02:36:55 PM PST

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