Situated between Afghanistan, a country torn apart by war, and India, a longtime enemy allied with the United States, Pakistan has been an enigmatic actor in South Asian politics over the last decade. Since the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan in 2001, Pakistan has been put under a microscope by the international community, which has offered both praise and admonishment for its role in the conflict. This article will look at the impact of the war on Pakistan’s civil society by exploring public attitudes towards the United States and Islamic extremism.
The Beginning
Pakistan has been a volatile actor in South Asia since its founding in 1947. Since then, it has gone through multiple upheavals - from dictatorial and military governments to parliamentary democracy and everything in between.
In Pakistan, political power is divided into three main sectors. The first sector is the civilian government, led by Asif Ali Zardari since September of 2008. The second sector is the military, which many argue holds the most political influence. The third branch of power is the Pakistani Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). The power of the ISI, like the Central Intelligence Agency in the United States, is hard to measure due to its secrecy.
The inability of Western governments to understand Pakistani politics is a reflection of the complexity of Pakistani society. On one hand, Pakistan has never been able to become a major economic player in the region in the way India has. On the other hand, it has forced other countries to take it seriously by obtaining nuclear weapons. Many Pakistani people are willing to support the United States in exchange for economic and strategic aid, but Pakistanis have not forgotten that the U.S. lent support to the Mujahedeen during the Afghan-Soviet War. In the eyes of many Pakistanis, the United States has had an unwelcome hand in their country’s politics for a very long time by supporting repressive governments such as that of Muhammad Zia-Ul-Haq and attempting to affect election outcomes in other cases.
Prior to 9/11, the main political problem that Pakistan faced was the dispute with India over control of Kashmir, a territory that spans the northern borders of both countries as well as southern China. The international border between India and Pakistan in this region has been disputed since the partition of India and Pakistan in 1947. Before 9/11, Pakistan’s ISI was also accused of supporting the Taliban in Afghanistan - an accusation which gained enormous political significance for the country when the World Trade Center Towers fell on Sept. 11.
The Response to 9/11 and the War on Terror
After 9/11, Pakistani President Musharraf reluctantly aligned himself with the United States, pledging that he would cooperate with U.S. efforts to eradicate the Taliban. Many communities were incensed by the government’s stance. The Pashtun ethnic community in Pakistan, most of which resides near the border with Pakistan, has extensive social links with Afghani Pashtuns. The Pashtuns understood Musharaf to say that he would stand for the killing of many of their brothers and relatives. Other Pakistanis, particularly those from non-Pashtun ethnic groups, viewed their country’s partnership with the United States as essential.
Maybe the most telling statement about US-Pakistani relations at the time came from a memoir recently written by Musharraf titled In the Line of Fire. In the book Musharraf alleges that the day that after the attacks he received a phone call from U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell and was told, “you are either with us or against us.” The next day, according to Musharaff’s account, Deputy Secretary Richard Armitage “told the director general [of the ISI] not only that we had to decide whether we were with America or with the terrorists, but that if we chose the terrorists, then we should be prepared to be bombed back to the Stone Age.” If Musharraf’s allegations are true, it is easy to see why many Pakistanis see the United States in a negative light.
Impact of the War in Afghanistan on Pakistan
Although Pakistan has been politically unstable since its founding, the amount of internal violence it has suffered since the beginning of the U.S. War on Terrorism is unprecedented in the country’s history. This is due to the increasing influence of Al Qaeda in Pakistan.
A concise summary of the problems Pakistan faces as a result of the U.S. intervention in Afghanistan comes from noted Pakistani scholar M. Nasrullah Mirza who states, “An influx of millions of Afghan refugees [has] resulted in small arms proliferation, drug trafficking and increased sectarianism. Furthermore, foreign militants have been able to infiltrate through Pakistan's porous borders.”
The political problems identified by Mirzi have resulted in changing public attitudes about religious extremism and foreign policy. In a 2009 study by the non-partisan International Republican Institute, 90 percent of Pakistanis agreed that religious extremism is a major problem in Pakistan, whereas only 63 percent agreed with the same statement in 2007. In 2006, the study found that 43 percent of Pakistanis had a favorable opinion of US-Pakistani cooperation in fighting terrorism as compared with 18 percent in 2009.
The annual terrorism report published by the U.S. State Department notes that there were 1,839 terrorist incidents in 2008 – a fourfold increase from 2006. Although most of these incidents took place near the border with Afghanistan, many others like the assassination of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto and the attacks on the Sri Lankan national cricket team, happened in the Eastern part of the country, far away from conflict zones.
So what does this mean? First, it means that Al Qaeda and other sympathetic organizations are attacking with greater sophistication and finding many civilians who are sympathetic to their cause. What is less obvious is the role of local police and the ISI in these attacks. Pakistan is notoriously corrupt, and many of these attacks cannot happen without bribes and favors. For example, Pakistan is still facing corruption on a national level today. In a report given to Zardari by Pakistan’s Auditor General, just the Ministry of Foreign Affairs was identified as having financial irregularities of $5 million (US) in 2007-2008. Pakistani corruption is not only a problem at the national level but also stems down to the local level where police are often paid off to “keep quiet” about illegal activities.
Proposed Solutions to the problem
Experts have proposed different ways of helping Pakistan combat its growing threats. Mustafa Malik, writing in Middle East Policy, agrees that the Obama administration’s decision to send Pakistan $1.5 billion in aid over the next five years will only help reduce violence if it is distributed in a way that targets the lower economic classes of society. Even if the aid is distributed properly, Malik also contends the money will do nothing to reduce anti-American sentiment in the region. To do that, he says, the U.S. must withdraw its troops from Afghanistan. Along with the economic aid, the legislation itself also requires that President Obama inform Congress in detail of his Pakistani strategy and also for Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to update him on progress of the strategy every 6 months.
Nasreen Akthar, a Pakistani lecturer and scholar suggests that “building a safe society, functional state institutions, and reviving the economy of Afghanistan would bring tremendous benefit to all its neighbors” and due to the potential for economic integration with Afghanistan. Many experts have suggested that resolving the Kashmiri dispute with India will benefit both countries economically and free up resources that are spent on the conflict.
I believe the most important thing the Pakistani government can do for itself is to convince its people that this is their war. Pakistan is a very weak state institutionally and many believe that Pakistan will not have the institutional capacity to handle extremist organizations if the United States were to withdraw from Afghanistan. Without the support of the Pakistani public, whether they are from the Sindh province in southern Pakistan or from the North-west Frontier Province, without persuading the people the government’s efforts will be stymied.
The only way for the Pakistani government to find its way out of its current situation is to establish transparency and accountability in all three of its main power sectors. This is a very difficult task given that all three branches have a long tradition of corruption. If Pakistan is to become a stable state, it will need help from its regional neighbors - India included. Pakistan needs to make a meaningful attempt to end the Kashmir conflict and show India that greater security in Pakistan will lead to a more secure India as well as a more stable South Asia. While Pakistan has been seen as an enigmatic actor, the actions taken in Pakistan may be the difference between winning and losing the battle against Islamic extremism in South Asia.