With the possible entry of former NYC Mayor Rudy Guiliani into the New York Senate race, Senate Democrats have another Senate seat in deep danger of being picked up by the GOP.
So far in the 2010 election cycle there are already 8 Democratic held Senate seats that are in serious jeopardy. The DEMS possess a 60 seat majority but that could quickly get cut down to a bare majority depending on the outcome of these contests.There are a few factors that are causing the current electoral jeopardy.
First there are 2 open seats now held by placeholders:
Deleware: a likely race between GOP Rep. Mike Castle and DEM state Attorney General Beau Biden for the former Senate seats of Vice President Joe Biden. Latest poll has Biden ahead 45% - 40% over Castle.
Illinois: a likely race between GOP Rep. Mark Kirk and DEM state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias. In lastest partisan polls the two are almost tied with either candidate up 3 point on the other depending on party sponsor.
Second there are two very vulnerable appointed Senators up for election:
New York: A likely showdown between new DEM Senator Kirsten Gillibrand and former NYC Mayor Rudy Guiliani. In latest polls Guiliani lead 49% - 43% over Gillibrand.
Colorado: Little known DEM US Senator Michael Bennet is running behind likely GOP nominee former Lt. Gov Jane Norton. He trails 45% to 36% in latest polls versus Norton and he faces a tough DEM primary race against former State House Speaker Andrew Romanoff.
Third there are several highly endangered veteran DEM Senators.
Arkansas: Sen. Blanche Lincoln faces an etremely tough race vs likely GOP nominee Gilbert Baker. She barely leads him 41% to 39% in the latest poll
Nevada: Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is in major danger of losing trailing all the main 2 GOP contenders in the latest polls.
Connecticut: Sen. Chris Dodd's recent ethis controversies have seveeraly damaged him at home. He trails all the main GOP contenders including former GOP Rep Rob Simmons 49% to 38%. Ouch!
Pennsylvania: New DEM Senator Arlen Specter faces a major DEM primary versus Rep. Joe Sestak. Then next up is a newly competitive former GOP Rep. Pat Toomey Both Specter and Sestak have very slight leads Toomey by small single digit margins.
Fourth there are 2 potential developing races.
Wisconsin: Former GOP Governor Tommy Thompsom has hinted he might run against Daily Kos fave Sen. Russ Feingold. This battle would be titanic and Thompsom would start with a slight 43% to 39% lead.
North Dakota: Sen. Byron Dorgan could potentially face off against enormously populart current GOP Governor John Hoeven. Hoeven has not yet decided and would start the race leading Dorgan 53% to 36%. Major Ouch!
The factors working for the DEMS is their major headstart in fundraising and many of the states are deep blue presidentially. Obama will be an asset who could be brought in the help rally base DEMS who were MIA in the two gubernatoral races this year.
The potential of losing many seats in 2010 should prompt DEMS to try and enact the tougher initiatives now with their 60 seats. It could be now or never for healthcare reform, climate change legislation and immigration reform. Its a case of "Use It or Lose It"....literally.