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Rasmussen Reports hits two of the biggest prizes in Election 2010, and in true Rasmussen fashion, find the Republican candidates doing better than any other pollsters in America.

That, and a few other choice headlines from the world of the campaign trail, grace the Thursday evening edition of the Wrap.

NY-Gov: Rasmussen Claims Giuliani Within 3 of Cuomo
It might be a moot point now, but our first stop on the Rasmussen Reports "Hey, The Democrats Are Going to Lose Everywhere" Tour is in the Empire State. The pollster claims that Rudy Giuliani is within three points of Democrat Andrew Cuomo in a prospective 2010 gubernatorial matchup. A trio of polls taken within the last month or so by Siena and Quinnipiac gave Cuomo leads of 7-12 points over Giuliani.

Meanwhile, when paired against incumbent Governor David Paterson, Giuliani wins by nearly 30 (57-30), which while slightly more robust than most polling, is certainly in the ballpark of what other surveys have found. As we have seen in other polls, Paterson-Lazio is a tossup (41-37 Lazio) while Cuomo-Lazio is a wipeout (57-29 Cuomo).

Also, at the close of the day, Marist released a poll of the electoral picture in New York. The poll might explain Giuliani's purported move--he leads Democratic Senator Kirsten Gillibrand by 14 points (54-40), but he trails Andrew Cuomo in the gubernatorial race by ten points (53-43) in the same survey.

Rasmussen also teased that they will have Senate results on Friday.

CA-Gov: Rasmussen Becomes First Pollster To Claim Tie in Gov's Race
In a battle between former Democratic Governor (and state Attorney General) Jerry Brown and the leading Republican candidate, former tech executive (and sometimes voter) Meg Whitman, the team over at Rasmussen claims that the race is...a tie. At present, Rasmussen says that Brown gets 41% of the vote, as does Whitman. The pollster does give Brown leads over both Tom Campbell (42-33) and Steve Poizner (43-32). Other pollsters have had the race reasonably close (including a mid-summer Daily Kos/R2000 poll that had Brown leading 42-36). But no one has had them even, and the most recent poll before this one (an early October Field Poll--PDF) gave Brown a substantial advantage. One sign that this poll might be a touch skewed is that it claims President Obama's approval rating in California is 55%, which is considerably lower than other pollsters have had in the state. It also claims that Whitman has 84% name recognition (with a 47/27 favorability spread), which seems a bit optimistic, to be sure.

AR-Sen: Zogby and Right Wing Group Try To Throw Scare Into Lincoln
In perhaps an attempted counterweight to September's Daily Kos polling in the state (or the later polling done by the PCCC, Zogby teamed with the "League of American Voters" (identified by Pollster as a "conservative non-profit opposed to health care reform legislation") to poll the state of Arkansas. The three polls had one thing in common: like the two that came before it, the Zogby Poll gave Democratic incumbent Blanche Lincoln a narrow two-point edge over leading Republican candidate Gilbert Baker (41-39).

The departure, and it was a substantial departure, was on the issue of health care reform. While both the Daily Kos poll and the PCCC poll showed a political price to be paid for any stifling of reform by the Senator, the new poll by Zogby and their anti-reform sponsor claims that 48% of Arkansas voters would be less likely to support Lincoln if she supports health care reform. This was a marked difference from the late October PCCC poll, which showed that just 15% of voters would be more inclined to support Lincoln if she stifled reform by joining a Republican filibuster.

NJ: New Rutgers Poll Shows Support For Gay Marriage in Garden State
Perhaps this will silence some of the breathless tradmed speculation that Chris Christie's narrow win for Governor was somehow indicative of a major lurch to the right in New Jersey. A new poll out from Rutgers/Eagleton shows that there is at least modest support for extending gay marriage to the state of New Jersey. 46% support gay marriage in the state, according to the survey, versus 42% who are in opposition. Furthermore, if the state legislature were to pass a law allowing for same-sex marriage, 52% would accept that law. Just 40% would call for a state constitutional amendment banning gay marriage, as well.

IN POLITICAL NEWS...

  • AR-02/SC-05/ND-AL: In an early ad buy (but far from a blitz, more on this later), the NRCC is using a Democrat to bludgeon three other potentially vulnerable Democrats on the health care issue. The NRCC is targeting Vic Snyder of Arkansas, Earl Pomeroy of North Dakota, and John Spratt of South Carolina. The ad uses the words of Democrat Dan Boren of Oklahoma, who vocally opposed health care reform. The Democrats claim that the ad buy is a mere $6300, and the article notes that--in the ultimate example of preaching to the converted--the ads will only be running on Fox News. DCCC spokesman Ryan Rudominer took a pretty good shot across the aisle in his commentary: ""Given the NRCC's embarrassing defeat in NY-23 where they spent nearly a million dollars on a candidate that ultimately dropped out, this wouldn't be the first or the last time the NRCC flushed its money down the toilet."
  • TX-Gov: Speaking of broadcast time, Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison is taking to the airwaves, launching what her campaign calls a significant buy of radio time in the state. Polls show her flagging campaign losing ground to Governor Rick Perry. Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, a new candidate entered the fray today: Farouk Shami, a Houston businessman who has made his fortune in the hair-care industry. Shami's name had been mentioned previously, and there are undoubtedly no shortage of people clamoring for a matchup between the Hair-Care King of Houston and the man best known as Governor Goodhair.
  • FL-Gov: In an interesting piece, the St. Petersburg Times is calling out likely GOP gubernatorial nominee Bill McCollum (the state Attorney General) for having a double standard vis-a-vis Scott Rothstein, the politically-connected South Florida lawyer recently cracked by the Feds for orchestrating a $1 billion Ponzi scheme. The Times notes that McCollum slapped the righteousness on thick when he demanded that both Democratic rival Alex Sink and the Florida GOP return any contributions from the tainted donor. They also note that he is curiously silent on the $200,000 donation received in late 2008 by the Republican Governor's Association. As one of the most high-profile races in one of the largest states in the union, it is likely that McCollum will be availing himself of some of the RGA's largesse within the next year, which would easily explain his reticence.
  • SC-03: Mike Huckabee has tried to earn some chits (for a future national bid, presumably) by lending his name to races around the country (Marco Rubio in Florida, for example). He has done it again in an open-seat race to replace Gresham Barrett in South Carolina. He has penned a fundraising appeal for Rex Rice, one of the many GOP contenders in the field to replace Barrett, who is running for Governor.
  • IA-03: Perpetually targeted Democrat Leonard Boswell might have a unique challenger in 2010: former Iowa State wrestling coach Jim Gibbons is announcing a bid for Congress. He would not be the first wrestling coach in the Congress: Ohio's archconservative Rep. Jim Jordan was an assistant coach on the D-1 level before being elected to Congress.
  • CO-04: Betsy Markey has received a new potential challenger for her seat in northeastern Colorado. It is unlikely, though, that Dean Madere, who works for a local heating/air conditioning company, is going to have the resources to hang in a Republican primary with a group of candidates that got off to a substantial head start. The favorite is probably still state legislator Cory Gardner.

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Thu Nov 19, 2009 at 07:36 PM PST.

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Comment Preferences

  •  I hope Rudy knows the (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    licorice114

    ins and outs of the Teabag movement.

    \9/11

    Clings to Music and the 2009 World Champion Yankee baseball.

    by Mro on Thu Nov 19, 2009 at 07:38:42 PM PST

  •  Yes please Rasmussen show a lead for Giuliani (0+ / 0-)

    lure him into the race and lets crush him

    •  Rasmussen has been consistent (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Jeff Y

      They're always showing that Republicans are more competitive than they actually end up being.  I've gotten to the stage now where whenever I see a Rasmussen report that says "OMG! Th Democrat's chances suck!" in a race, I start yawning.

      I think that I have had enough of you telling me how things will be. Today I choose a new way to go ... and it goes through you!

      by Norbrook on Thu Nov 19, 2009 at 07:41:42 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  However, in the interest of truth (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        pademocrat, Jeff Y, Norbrook

        Rasmussen was a lot more accurate than Kos (R2K) on the two governor's races earlier this month.  Ergo, you can't criticize em' too much this year, b/c they've been pretty good.

        Now, Survey USA is always the best, which has been pretty consistent over the years.

        http://www.surveyusa.com/...

        •  Yeah, the feeling I have about any poll (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          pademocrat, Clarknt67, Norbrook

          from any pollster right now is that it is a year away and Gillibrand isnt well known.

          •  I pretty much think the same thing (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Clarknt67

            If I'd been reading the polls around this time in 2007 - let alone believe them - I'd have assumed this little-known Democratic candidate stood almost no chance against his better-known rivals.  Funny how that worked out!  It's almost a year away, no one has seriously announced yet to challenge, and campaign ads aren't up and running.  About the only true thing I get from the NY polls is that Paterson isn't popular.  Which I already knew from just listening to everyone.  

            I think that I have had enough of you telling me how things will be. Today I choose a new way to go ... and it goes through you!

            by Norbrook on Thu Nov 19, 2009 at 08:28:28 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

      •  Paging Steve Singiser! (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Norbrook

        Have other pollsters noticed that Rasmussen is doing with polling what Fox does with news? They're trying to create a pro-Republican meme out of thin air.

        I hope people outside of Kos are starting to notice this.

        "I feel stupid and contagious. Here we are now, entertain us" - Kurt Cobain 1991

        by Jeff Y on Thu Nov 19, 2009 at 09:31:00 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  I'm really looking forward to reading... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Norbrook

        ...a year from today, when Rasmussen is totally discredited on Election Day and crashes into the dustbin of pollster history, alongside the Literary Digest!

  •  Maybe Corzine will grow a sac before the end of (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    exotrip, pademocrat, Clarknt67, Norbrook

    lame duck session.  Or maybe not.   Then, he can do nothing and blame everyone else when he is gone.

    A new poll out from Rutgers/Eagleton shows that there is at least modest support for extending gay marriage to the state of New Jersey. 46% support gay marriage in the state, according to the survey, versus 42% who are in opposition. Furthermore, if the state legislature were to pass a law allowing for same-sex marriage, 52% would accept that law.

    Having credibility when making an argument is the straightest path to persuasion.

    by SpamNunn on Thu Nov 19, 2009 at 07:39:11 PM PST

    •  Don't expect Sweeney to rock the boat, either. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      exotrip, pademocrat

      By MAX PIZARRO, PolitickerNJ.com Reporter Senate Majority

      ATANTIC CITY - Ready to be the next Senate President, state Senate Majority Leader Steve Sweeney (D-West Deptford) just told a crowd of mayors, council people and govenrment types that now is not the time to drive marriage equality through the legislature.

      "It's an important social issue," Sweeney tells NJN Chief Political Correspondent Michael Aron in response to a question.  

      "If we learned anything in this last election it's that the main issue right now is the economy," Sweeney adds.  He says the legislature should consider marriage equality at another time.

       

      Having credibility when making an argument is the straightest path to persuasion.

      by SpamNunn on Thu Nov 19, 2009 at 07:48:59 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Dennis Hastert was also a wrestling coach... (5+ / 0-)

    albeit at the high school level.

  •  re Marist: Gillibrand 40 Giuliani 54 (5+ / 0-)

    It's worth noting that the internals are wonky as hell.

    To wit:

    -Giuliani would not get 33% of the Democratic vote.

    - Giuliani would not get more women's votes than Kirsten Gillibrand. (47-44 here for Ghouliani).

    -Giuliani would not win NY City against any reasonable Democrat.

    -Giuliani would not get 30% of the Liberal vote.

    http://maristpoll.marist.edu/...

    A silly poll, in my opinion.

    Here we are now Entertain us I feel stupid and contagious

    by Scarce on Thu Nov 19, 2009 at 07:49:35 PM PST

  •  Speaking of ad blitzes (0+ / 0-)

    We are being inundated here in CT with anti-health reform ads, which I can only assume they're meant to help Lieberman.  They can't be expecting us to call Dodd and change his mind...

    And I do mean inundated. During dinner last night, we had on our local news followed by BriWi.  In literally every commercial break, there was at least one anti-reform ad.  All different ones, mind you. But the same end goal - call your senator today and tell him that we can't afford to yada yada fishcakes.

    Thank you for flying Church of England... Cake or Death?

    by cjinca on Thu Nov 19, 2009 at 07:55:51 PM PST

  •  Could Jerry Brown's numbers be affected (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Dunvegan, pademocrat

    by the whole secret taping of reporters that his campaign did? That was my first thought when I saw those numbers, but I'm not from CA, and then I saw some of the other stuff, like Whitman having an 84% name recognition.

    •  Brown is 2 Generations Known in CA (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      tmo, jj32
      I don't see the numbers or the taping having a catastrophic effect on Brown here in California.

      Brown should, unless something extraordinary occurs, take California with a comfortable margin.

      Jerry is has a reputation here as a good administrator, which we need now after Ahnold. He's a known and seems safe in CA from what I see from the ground, as long as we put feet on the ground and build a strong grass-roots infrastructure for him, and get out the vote.

      "When fascism comes to America, it will be wrapped in a flag and carrying a cross."

      -- Sinclair Lewis

      "Facts are stupid things." -- Ronald Reagan

      by Dunvegan on Thu Nov 19, 2009 at 08:30:40 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Well, let's be honest about NY-23 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    exotrip, pademocrat

    Had the NRCC given that 1 million dollars to Hoffman, he'd be the Congressman right now.

    The fact still remains...they dumped that million down the toilet, though.

  •  Hutchison is not leaving the Senate. (0+ / 0-)

    Which is unfortunate as she'd have been a better Governor than Perry and her open seat would have been a possible "get" for the Dems.  However it's a safe seat if she stays in the Senate.

    When is the last time the Obama Administration has pleasantly surprised you - Made you think to yourself "Wow, I didn't think they had that in them"?

    by Jonze on Thu Nov 19, 2009 at 07:58:15 PM PST

    •  She is leaving the Senate after the primary (0+ / 0-)

      "I realize this will keep me in the Senate past the primary election," Hutchison's speech says. "These issues are too important to leave the fight to a newly appointed freshman senator who will be selected in the midst of a political storm."

      In the speech, she makes it "crystal clear" that she will leave the Senate after the primary regardless of whether she or Perry wins.
      .........

      "I will be resigning this Senate seat," Hutchison says in the speech. "For all of the good Republicans out there who plan on running for my Senate seat next year, make no mistake, this is going to happen."

      http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/...

      Here we are now Entertain us I feel stupid and contagious

      by Scarce on Thu Nov 19, 2009 at 08:06:44 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Maybe (0+ / 0-)

        She has changed her mind before, At any rate she  going to stick around for the Senate votes on health care reform and cap and trade. Meanwhile, our A team Democrats John Sharp and Bill White wait for her to resign, and some of the pack of Democrats running for Governor aren't even our B team.

        See "Why Are Our Best Players Potential Benchwarmers? " in the Burnt Orange Report for a discussion of why based on their positions on the issues, either John Sharp or Bill White could switch to the governor's race.

        Good thing we've still got politics in Texas -- finest form of free entertainment ever invented.- Molly Ivins

        by loblolly on Fri Nov 20, 2009 at 07:17:44 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  She says that now. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        loblolly

        Then after she loses the primary she'll decide to keep her seat.  No doubt in my mind.

        The being around for HCR and cap and trade important votes is a red herring because you can bet Perry's named seat warmer would be a sure no vote.  Unless KBH is planning to vote with Dems...(I kid, I kid)

        When is the last time the Obama Administration has pleasantly surprised you - Made you think to yourself "Wow, I didn't think they had that in them"?

        by Jonze on Fri Nov 20, 2009 at 07:20:22 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Television... (0+ / 0-)

    ads really don't have much of an effect in North Dakota. Last year, perennial candidate Duane Sands advertised quite heavily and tried to tie Earl Pomeroy to "Nancy Pelosi of San Francisco", who costarred in many of his ads, while ads from Earl Pomeroy were nearly nonexistent, but Earl still won handily.

  •  Wrestling coaches in Congress (0+ / 0-)

    I thought Hastert was one, too?

  •  Rasmussen is a fraud (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    PorridgeGun

    forget even factoring his crappy polling outfits numbers, they are now permanent outliers (in favor of the Republicans)

  •  Just a point of clarification - CO - 04 isn't (0+ / 0-)

    just "northeast corner" of Colorado; It runs all the way down the eastern plains, too.  I saw Markey campaigning in my childhood home town of Springfield last August at the county fair and marching in the fair parade.

  •  Re the TX governor's race: (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    loblolly

    I truly don't think Farouk Shami stands a chance.  I say this because he is a Muslim, a Palestinian, and has a "foreign" name.  This is Texas, after all.  Although he might have a natural constituency among the frizzy haired women of Texas (there are especially lots of us in Houston, with our humidity), because he is the inventor and manufacturer of the fabulous "Chi" flatiron.  He also produces a line of haircare products like shampoo, conditioner, and styling gel.  And we women in Texas are very serious about our hair products.

    Ok, other than the hair references, I don't know much about Farouk, except that he recently moved his manufacturing operation from China to Texas, creating some 1,000 jobs.  He said the higher cost of manufacturing in the USA would be offset by improved quality and reliability of production.  I believe this is called "putting your money where your mouth is."  I know nothing about Farouk's policy positions, but I am willing to bet that he would instantly be a better governor than Rick "Goodhair" Perry; of course, that is a low bar.

  •  Kos should do a poll. Boswell is toast (0+ / 0-)

    Gibbons is a good looking guy with a squeaky-clean reputation. If I remember correctly, he always wore a carnation in his lapel as a coach.

    He wasn't a great coach, but he's a nice guy. It will be interesting to see what his politics are.

    Redistricting will be even more interesting if Gibbons wins, because Iowa is set to lose a seat. Iowa redistricts honestly, so there won't be any gerrymanding.

    But I think this latest development shows why we have to primary weak Dems like Boswell. A strong Democrat would have a better chance than Boswell.

    In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if Boswell hangs it up. He's old and doesn't have the energy to fight a real campaign.

    See the losers in the best bars, meet the winners in the dives -Neil Young

    by danoland on Fri Nov 20, 2009 at 02:23:47 AM PST

  •  Former Wrestling Coaches Who Went to Congress (0+ / 0-)

    calvin even knows that Mr. Hastert wrestled in college at Eastern Illinois University for coach Hoppy Pinther.  

    How's that for totally useless trivia knowledge?  And, calvin isn't even from Illinois.

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