Here’s a peek into a bit of geopolitical news that is not making much noise in the US press – Azerbaijan and Armenia are meeting in Munich to discuss settlement of their territorial dispute in Nagorno-Kharabagh, a piece of mountainous desolation occupied after a war by Armenia who interceded when the mostly Armenian population of N-K sought to secede from Azerbaijan a couple of decades ago. (Think Kosovo.)
Who cares, you say? Outside of the Armenians and Azeris, that is?
Well, you should. And Russia, Turkey, Georgia, Iran, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, and most of Europe care. Here’s why.
First, some geography: Armenia is a landlocked Christian country that sits between Muslim Azerbaijan on its east, and Muslim Turkey on its west. Importantly, it is bounded to the south by Iran and to the north by Christian Georgia.
If you were paying attention, you would have noticed that Russia and Georgia fought a war a while back, supposedly over some Russian-populated Georgian provinces that were being oppressed by Georgia.
You may even remember that there are some important oil and gas pipelines that run across Georgia, right through that combat zone, that carry important energy supplies to Europe. The Russians were very careful that their extensive bombing raids all around it did not damage that pipeline, in effect saying, "We can cut this thing any time we want, and there is nothing you can or will do about it." You may also remember that a dispute between Russia and Ukraine over a natural gas pipeline resulted in a Russian cutoff that left much of Europe freezing.
So suddenly the spotlight shines on the need to get an alternative pipeline to carry oil and gas from fields around the Caspian Sea to Europe. Such a pipeline is planned – the Nabucco pipeline. And who produces a lot of that energy? Azerbaijan!
The straightest shot from Azerbaijan to Turkey is across Armenia, but the N-K dispute has closed that border since the war. And in solidarity with their Muslim brethren, Turkey also closed its border on the western side of Armenia. Here is the map: Caucasus-political_en.svg
But now Turkey and Armenia have re-opened their border leaving the Azeris with a lukewarm ally. Armenia has had traditionally good relations with Russia as well as warm relations with the US. And Armenia finally has an American ambassador after years of a vacancy left unfilled by Bush. So it has a neutral and semi-trusted route by both powers.
So all that is needed to get that pipeline plan moving is to get the Azeris to open their border with Armenia, and the gas (and money) will flow. And Iran also has a lot of gas and oil, as if you didn’t know. So that is what these obscure talks in Munich are about. They portend a major geo-political shift in an important and volatile region. Watch that space!