Really bad. Ezra:
Because of the limits placed on the exchanges, most of the participants will have some form of premium credit or affordable subsidy. That means most will be ineligible for abortion coverage. The idea that people are going to go out and purchase separate "abortion plans" is both cruel and laughable. If this amendment passes, it will mean that virtually all women with insurance through the exchange who find themselves in the unwanted and unexpected position of needing to terminate a pregnancy will not have coverage for the procedure. Abortion coverage will not be outlawed in this country. It will simply be tiered, reserved for those rich enough to afford insurance themselves or lucky enough to receive from their employers.
The amendment is expected to pass with relative ease. Republicans will join with anti-choice Democrats to push it over the finish line. Once the amendment passes, the bill is cleared for a vote, and all parties expect that vote to succeed. Today looks likely to end with a historic, and important, vote. A vote that is a first step towards helping more than 30 million people secure health-care coverage, and making sure hundreds of millions are better protected from the vagaries of the insurance industry. But Stupak's amendment is a bitter start. It is, however, not the end. Even if it muscles into the House bill, it will also have to pass in the Senate, and then survive conference, before it becomes law.
Stupak says he has about 220 votes including almost every single Republican.
If it makes it in, it won't be the end because we won't let it be. We will continue to fight to strip it in conference. But if it makes it in it will be a bitter, bitter pill to swallow with the bill, and massive, massive failure on the part of pro-choice organizations like NARAL and Planned Parenthood, who knew this was going to be coming for months and did nothing to stave it off.
Update: Chris lists possible targets who call themselves pro-choice, but are listed as supporting Stupak:
Tom Perriello (VA-05): (202) 225-4711
Frank Kratovil (MD-01): 202-225-5311
Walt Minnick (ID-01): (202) 225-6611
Loretta Sanchez (CA-47): (202) 225-2965
He's got a larger whip list at that link.
Update 2: Word coming down is that Sanchez will NOT vote for Stupak amendment.
Update 3: Just spoke with a represenative for Minnick. He will not for Stupak.