As we know, the Democratic primary for Senate in Massachusetts pretty much determines the ultimate winner, and that Democratic primary is today. So what's the state of the race?
Attorney General Martha Coakley has been firmly in the driver's seat throughout the short campaign, but, perhaps inevitably, she has lost some ground as other candidates have picked up name recognition statewide. In mid-September polling, she more than tripled the percentage anyone else was drawing. That had dropped to not even doubling the competition in late November.
Tom Kiley, pollster for Michael Capuano, and Celinda Lake, pollster for Martha Coakley, both confirmed for me today what I reported yesterday. Kiley says his poll, taken Sunday and Monday of this week, has Coakley around 35%, and Capuano 7 points behind, in the high 20s. Lake says her poll, taken Sunday through Tuesday, has Coakley at 41%, and Capuano at 20%. (Both have Pagliuca roughly around 10%-12% and falling slightly; Khazei around 7-10% and rising slightly; and some 15%-20% undecided.)
Coakley is looking to close with a robocall from Bill Clinton. Capuano has had some high-profile endorsements, including Nancy Pelosi, but you have to figure that Clinton > Pelosi and a call is more likely to move votes than a press statement weeks back.
Higher turnout will probably benefit Coakley as the only woman and the only person in the race who's been elected statewide -- but what exactly constitutes "high turnout" is an unknown, since there's no real basis for comparison. Regardless, she is the likely winner. But we'll see soon enough.