The Congressional Progressive Caucus has sent a letter to President Obama requesting another meeting to lay out yet again its "bottom lines" for meaningful and substantive Health Care Reform. Whether or not this will actually occur, or result in any commitments from the President remains an open question in this fluid environment. While Representative Grijalva (AZ-07) has been stated unequivocally that the Senate legislation as laid out a few days ago is a "non starter", it remains to be seen to what extent he will be able to retain his vote control of members of the CPC on final passage of any compromise legislation that winds its way over to the House floor, and how much leverage the House Leadership will exert on those members of the CPC to go along with any such bill. One potential clue to predicting this outcome is to look to those members of the CPC who would be most in need of the campaign finance assistance and resources of the House Leadership as we head in to the 2010 election cycle in earnest.
Of the 80 members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, all but 10 won their respective 2008 races by 65% or more. Of those, only one -- Eric Massa (NY-29) -- represents a district in which President Obama did not prevail.
Massa has emerged as one of the more courageous of the CPC members having only won his election by a scant 50.9% in a district in which Obama received 48% and Kerry 42%. Yet looking ahead to 2010 he is taking no chances and has raised (through 9/30/09) a whopping $804,618 in contributions.
Both Massa and Representative Alan Grayson (FL-08) have exhibited great courage in the fight for meaningful health care reform. Grayson who eked out a 52% win has, similar to Massa, raised a very respectable $647,347 for his 2010 battle. Paradoxically, and hopefully, they are both the most potentially endangered of all the members of the Progressive Caucus in the House of Representatives based on the voting patterns for President and their own 2008 elections in their districts.
Yet they both continue to be strong and vocal advocates to substantive health care reform efforts.
Progressives need to be extra vigilant at this time to look toward possible wavering members of the CPC and keep the pressure on those who are in little danger of reelection defeat. It is imperative that we thank them for standing firm and reiterate our strong support for their efforts to ensure meaningful health care reform. There have been indications of a weakening in that support by members of the CPC for months. We must hold them to their word.
For example, Both Representatives Capuano (MA-08) and Farr (CA-17) have previously stated that he would be "open" to a trigger of some sort. Capuano won his last election by --- he was unchallenged. And Farr? By over 73%. Further, in Capuano's district Kerry received 79% of the vote and Obama netted 86%. in Farr's district it was much the same story -- Kerry 66 and Obama 72. Neither of these Representatives are in the remotest danger of losing their seats. Also, they both signed a pledge on July 31st stating that they "simply cannot vote" for a bill that "at minimum" does not have a public plan:
We regard the agreement reached by Chairman Waxman and several Blue Dog members of the Committee as fundamentally unacceptable. This agreement is not a step forward toward a good health care bill, but a large step backwards. Any bill that does not provide, at a minimum, for a public option with reimbursement rates based on Medicare rates - not negotiated rates - is unacceptable. It would ensure higher costs for the public plan, and would do nothing to achieve the goal of "keeping insurance companies honest," and their rates down.
To offset the increased costs incurred by adopting the provisions advocated by the Blue Dog members of the Committee, the agreement would reduce subsidies to low- and middle-income families, requiring them to pay a larger portion of their income for insurance premiums, and would impose an unfunded mandate on the states to pay for what were to have been Federal costs.
In short, this agreement will result in the public, both as insurance purchasers and as taxpayers, paying ever higher rates to insurance companies.
We simply cannot vote for such a proposal
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/...
But as Capuano and Farr stated in 9/8/09 Roll Call article:
We’re the caucus that least marches to a unified drummer — that’s not what we do," Rep. Mike Capuano (D-Mass.) said. "I’m serious about increasing access and quality, but that doesn’t mean it has to be a grand slam home run. I’ll take a ground-rule double if that’s what it takes. I’m happy to compromise if that’s what it takes. But compromise is compromise — it’s not rolling over."
Rep. Sam Farr (D-Calif.), a Progressive Caucus member, said he did not support the approach but did not foreclose on it, either. "It depends on how strong that trigger is," he said. Farr said he has seen triggers implemented effectively in California. "Triggers work, but they’ve got to be really clear as to how they operate," he said. "The only way I could see it getting progressive votes is by making sure the public option is strong and goes into operation.
"
http://www.rollcall.com/...
Granted, Capuano was running for the Kennedy Senate seat at the time, which might explain his threading the needle here, but he is now back to being a Representative and we need to hold him accountable to his pledge. As we do the other 59 members who signed it, at a minimum, while reinvesting in our energy to reach out to the other members of the caucus who chose not to sign the letter and ask for their support. Indeed, there is an argument to be made that it might be prudent to focus on them first as they did not feel strongly enough to commit to the language in the 7/31/09 letter.
One measure of predicting who might wobble in their commitment to real health care reform could be the ratio of their 2008 margin of victory to the money they have raised to date. A member in a tougher district in what promises to be a bruising 2010 - say under 65% - who have not had a good fundraising year in 2009 and with lower cash on hand would potentially be more be amenable to pressure and a financial carrot from the Leadership than others.
While "money for votes" is manifestly illegal, the offer of assistance and an implicit understanding of the price of that assistance in an upcoming election year is routine.
This is a clue as to who might bolt and who will stand firm. This is also obviously impacted by the existence or emergence of a credible challenger.
For example, Representative Lujan (NM-3) has raised $384,595 and has $196,182 cash on hand. His challenger, Republican Adam Kokesh, has raised $104,075 and has just over $30,000 in cash on hand. Absent a more credible fundraising challenge from Kokesh or another challenger, we should look to Representative Lujan to continue to hold firm and vote for a strong health care plan. Although not a signatory of the July 30th letter, he did vote in the affirmative on 11/7/09 on HR 3692.
There are a number of CPC members sitting on huge warchests that could possibly help to fund their other Progressive Caucus brethren in the upcoming elections, rather than have them feel more dependent and thereby pressured for a compromise vote by leadership on the health care reform legislation.
Among those staggering Cash On Hand amounts are:
Frank Pallone (NJ-06) - $4,012,918; 2008 win % = 66.7
John Tierney (MA-06) - $1,314,564; 2008 win % = 70.5
Ed Pastor (AZ-04) - $1,475,772; 2008 win % = 72.0
Ed Markey (MA-07) - $3,029,037; 2008 win % = 75.7
Carolyn Maloney (NY-14) - $1,704,244; 2008 win % = 79.5
Jerrold Nadler (NY-08) - $1,070,728; 2008 win % = 79.7
Charles Rangel (NY-15) - $1,108,907; 2008 win % = 87.5
Donald Payne (NJ-10) - $1,154,070; 2008 win % - 99.0
Henry Waxman (CA-30) - $1,059,601; 2008 win % = 100.0
That amounts to a potential pool of almost $16 million. If even 25% of that pool were to be spread amongst the 10 tightest races in the CPC from 2008 it would augment their campaign accounts by $400,000.
There are a few members of the Caucus who are already facing known and credible opponents, based on moneys raised:
Eric Massa (NY-29)
Tom Reed (R), raised $143,491; COH $117,270
Ben Lujan (NM-3)
Adam Kokesh (R), raised $104,075; COH $31,498
John Hall (NY-19)
Greg Ball (R), raised $378,334; COH $213,323
Nan Hayworth (R), raised $318,246; COH $318,246
John Tierney (MA-6)
William Hudak, Jr. (R), raised $153,470; COH $106,433
Mike Honda (CA-15)
S. Joseph Simitian (D), raised $392,852; COH $362,816
As is apparent from the fundraising done to date in a tough economy some members of the caucus who took less than 65% of the vote in 2008 had significantly less money in the bank at the end of September than others:
Pingree (ME-01) = $75,979; 2008 campaign expenditures = $2,219,198
Kucinich (OH-10) = $84,148; 2008 campaign expenditures = $2,430,560
Polis (CO-02) - $81,757; 2008 campaign expenditures = $7,323,502
We have worked tirelessly to ensure that meaningful Health Care reform is enacted. Although things look bleak on the Senate side, now more than ever our calls, letters, and emails to these 80 members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus are needed.
I have compiled a list to track these parameters I referenced earlier -- sorry about the crappy formatting. Some will have no contribs listed (i.e. Abercrombie and Wexler, who are retiring):
CONGRESSIONAL PROGRESSIVE CAUCUS MEMBERS
Member 08 win % Obama % Kerry % 2010 $$ Cash On Hand
Eric Massa (NY-29) 50.9 48.0 42.0 $804,618 $503,188
Alan Grayson (FL-08) 52.0 53.0 45.0 $647,347 $477,627
Chellie Pingree (ME-01) 54.6 61.0 55.0 $217,333 $75,979
Ben R. Lujan (NM-3) 56.6 61.0 54.0 $384,595 $196,182
Dennis Kucinich (OH-10) 56.8 59.0 58.0 $163,115 $84,148
David Loebsack (IA-02) 57.1 60.0 55.0 $249,011 $210,749
John Hall (NY-19) 58.5 51.0 45.0 $424,522 $350,710
Jared Polis (CO-02) 62.4 64.0 58.0 $168,854 $81,757
Raúl M. Grijalva (AZ-07)63.1 57.0 57.0 $227,374 $102,001
Emanuel Cleaver (MO-05) 64.4 64.0 59.0 $203,314 $136,518
André Carson (IN-07) 65.1 71.0 58.0 $358,414 $230,748
Maurice Hinchey (NY-22) 66.1 59.0 54.0 $181,221 $98,467
Robert Wexler (FL-19) 66.3 65.0 66.0 $0 $0
Frank Pallone (NJ-06) 66.7 60.0 57.0 $957,484 $4,012,918
Barney Frank (MA-04) 68.0 64.0 65.0 $1,124,272 $397,568
Jim Moran (VA-08) 68.1 69.0 64.0 $395,950 $466,547
Bennie Thompson (MS-02) 69.2 66.0 59.0 $807,787 $1,738,288
Linda Sánchez (CA-39) 69.3 65.0 59.0 $238,173 $215,476
Tammy Baldwin (WI-02) 69.4 69.0 62.0 $329,214 $587,718
John Tierney (MA-06) 70.5 58.0 58.0 $153,470 $1,314,564
Keith Ellison (MN-05) 71.0 74.0 71.0 $367,331 $135,934
Michael Honda (CA-15) 71.6 68.0 63.0 $265,430 $239,523
Mel Watt (NC-12) 71.6 70.0 63.0 $83,582 $140.281
Ed Pastor (AZ-04) 72.0 66.0 62.0 $306,361 $1,475,772
Bob Filner (CA-51) 72.4 63.0 53.0 $288,619 $64,675
George Miller (CA-07) 72.6 72.0 67.0 $404,990 $340,914
John Oliver (MA-01) 73.2 64.0 63.0 $227,023 $200,112
Sam Farr (CA-17) 73.3 72.0 66.0 $200,742 $119,102
Marcy Kaptur (OH-09) 74.1 62.0 58.0 $57,743 $918,564
C. Kilpatrick(MI-13) 74.2 85.0 81.0 $205,401 $325,898
Jan Schakowsky (IL-09) 74.6 72.0 68.0 $683,893 $491,151
Earl Blumenauer (OR-03) 75.0 71.0 67.0 $489,809 $418,724
Laura Richardson (CA-37)75.2 80.0 74.0 $124,373 $40,823
Lynn Woolsey (CA-06) 75.4 76.0 70.0 $279,532 $146,842
Ed Markey (MA-07) 75.7 65.0 66.0 $586,281 $3,029,027
Mazie Hirono (HI-02) 76.1 73.0 56.0 $327,696 $491,332
Pete Stark (CA-13) 76.3 74.0 71.0 $202,764 $535,292
L. Roybal-Allard(CA-34) 76.9 75.0 69.0 $202,894 $76,051
Rosa DeLauro (CT-03) 77.0 63.0 56.0 $419,289 $51,347
Neil Abercrombie(HI-01) 77.1 70.0 53.0 $0 $0
S. Jackson-Lee (TX-18) 77.3 77.0 72.0 $156,375 $451,414
Louise Slaughter(NY-28) 77.8 69.0 63.0 $208,201 $306,497
Carolyn Maloney (NY-14) 79.5 78.0 74.0 $1,360,835 $1,704,244
Elijah Cummings (MD-07) 79.6 79.0 73.0 $349,453 $691,066
Jerrold Nadler (NY-08) 79.7 74.0 72.0 $591,946 $1,070,728
Luis Gutierrez (IL-04) 80.7 85.0 79.0 $129,255 $329,785
Maxine Waters (CA-35) 82.1 84.0 79.0 $145,381 $50,420
Alcee Hastings (FL-23) 82.3 83.0 76.0 $247,790 $204,902
Eddie B.Johnson (TX-30) 82.6 82.0 75.0 $271,684 $219,943
Peter DeFazio (OR-04) 83.0 54.0 49.0 $341,426 $582,642
Jim McDermott (WA-07) 83.8 84.0 79.0 $167,393 $22,263
Peter Welch (VT-AL) 83.8 68.0 59.0 $155,571 $633,761
Danny Davis (IL-07) 85.0 88.0 83.0 $206,670 $428,349
Marcia L. Fudge (OH-11) 85.0 85.0 81.0 $157,210 $235,909
Bobby Rush (IL-01) 85.8 87.0 83.0 $117,150 $8,887
Donna Edwards (MD-04) 86.0 85.0 78.0 $212,232 $55,742
Barbara Lee (CA-09) 86.0 88.0 86.0 $497,292 $77,430
William Clay (MO-01) 86.9 80.0 75.0 $235,041 $301,354
Diane Watson (CA-33) 87.4 87.0 83.0 $72,235 $14,260
Charles Rangel (NY-15) 87.5 93.0 90.0 $1,492,079 $1,108,907
Steve Cohen (TN-09) 87.9 77.0 70.0 $416,576 $858,546
Gwen Moore (WI-04) 88.5 75.0 70.0 $180,389 $38,549
Chaka Fattah (PA-02) 88.9 90.0 87.0 $101,489 $24,920
Nydia Velazquez (NY-12) 89.2 86.0 80.0 $227,432 $674,887
JesseJackson,Jr.(IL-02) 89.4 90.0 84.0 $349,214 $446,946
Robert Brady (PA-01) 90.8 88.0 84.0 $235,515 $621,223
John Conyers (MI-14) 92.4 86.0 83.0 $450,575 $170,104
Yvette Clarke (NY-11) 92.5 91.0 86.0 $264,846 $94,529
José Serrano (NY-16) 96.6 95.0 89.0 $105,849 $55,506
Donald Payne (NJ-10) 99.0 87.0 82.0 $222,167 $1,154,070
Xavier Becerra (CA-31) 100.0 80.0 77.0 $733,046 $580,400
Corrine Brown (FL-03) 100.0 73.0 65.0 $n/a
Michael Capuano (MA-08) 100.0 86.0 79.0 $n/a
Grace Napolitano(CA-32) 100.0 68.0 62.0 $149,776 $255,982
Phil Hare (IL-17) 100.0 56.0 51.0 $408,487 $642,878
Hank Johnson (GA-04) 100.0 79.0 71.0 $149,125 $36,053
John Lewis (GA-05) 100.0 79.0 74.0 $302,204 $327,809
James McGovern (MA-03) 100.0 59.0 59.0 $485,213 $564,933
Henry Waxman (CA-30) 100.0 70.0 66.0 $563,332 $1,059,601
Source: WaPo, Open Secrets