Now that President Obama has instructed Senate Majority Leader Reid to give in to the demands of Joe Lieberman and remove the meaningful parts of the health care reform bill -- and the bill becomes mostly just a mandate to buy private insurance, i.e. a huge act of corporate welfare -- it's becoming increasingly likely that a lot of progressive Democrats and left-leaning independents won't bother to vote in 2010. Some may even vote Republican, just to demonstrate their anger at the Democrats in power.
Thus, the writing is already on the wall that the Republicans will make large gains in Congress next year -- possibly even regaining control of either the House or Senate or both.
Why do Republicans, like crabgrass on a lawn, always seem to come back and take over the U.S. government? Let's explore this issue.
The first reason why Republicans win: They project strength.
If there's one thing the voters can always count on with the Republicans, it's that they will fight hard for whatever they believe in. Whether their beliefs are right or wrong, they will always stubbornly dig in, preserve party unity, never compromise an inch, and use every trick in the book to ram through their agenda. They will use fear mongering, lying, ferocious attacks on their opponents, skillful manipulation of the media narrative, every aggressive parliamentary procedure available to them in the Congress, and every theoretical expansive power of the presidency. They will fight by any means necessary to win.
People love this. Who doesn't like to watch a fighter in action? Frankly, there is something downright sexual about it. Republicans have the "alpha male" vibe. They are the swinging johnson, the swaggering cowboy, the ass-kicking rambo, the conquering dictator of American politics.
The natural tendency of Republicans to be the party of force, power, fighting, and cockiness earns them huge kudos with the average American voter. They really don't even have to be right about the issues. Merely fighting hard for their beliefs -- being "tough" -- is good enough.
And this leads to...
The second reason why Republicans win: Democrats project weakness.
There is nothing worse in politics, war, or sport than appearing to be cowardly or weak-willed. Nothing. It is the absolute worst trait imaginable, in the eyes of the typical human being.
For this reason, Democrats with their always-ready-to-compromise spirit inevitably seem worse than Republicans in a visceral way, even if on an intellectual level many voters may appreciate their cautious and "sensible" approach to decisionmaking. On the level of the heart and the gut, they are unlikable -- even repugnant to the average person.
Democrats are appropriately stereotyped as the cowardly weakling who lets the bully beat him up and steal his lunch money every day, rationalizing his refusal to fight back as being somehow an intelligent or pragmatic thing to do. This is exactly what the Republicans do to the Democrats over and over and over again in political policy debates and the legislative process. It's so common, so nearly universal, that when a progressive Democrat like Alan Grayson actually stands up for what he believes and articulates it forcefully without apology and doesn't back down, it takes everyone's breath away on both sides of the aisle.
With this appearance of weakness, Democrats in general are viewed by the American people as unworthy of occupying seats of power in the government. After all, power should naturally only be granted to those who know how to use it. The only exception to this rule is after Republicans have recklessly abused their power and ruined the country, such as under George W. Bush. In that occasional circumstance, the American people will briefly allow Democrats to rule -- until they, as usual, prove unworthy of such power because they constantly bargain and negotiate and give in to the other side rather than actually ruling.
And this brings us to...
The third reason why Republicans win: Democrats' weakness causes the American people to believe that government doesn't work.
Philosophically, the main argument for voting Republican is that "government doesn't work" -- it's inefficient, cumbersome, overly bureaucratic, can't get things done, can't make a positive difference in people's lives. This argument doesn't have to be true, but the irony is that Democrats refusal to use their power boldly and forcefully when they control the government proves the Republicans' point!
Imagine that Democrats governed like Republicans do: with zealous, fierce, overwhelming force, rolling over the opposition by any means necessary to enact their agenda. Imagine that Democrats projected strength rather than weakness. (I know it's hard to imagine, but let's indulge ourselves and try for a moment.)
For example, let's say President Obama had made a series of powerful speeches to the American people framing the health care reform debate in terms of the essential need for a government-run insurance option to compete with the private sector -- perhaps even with a threat to veto any bill that emerges from the Congress without a public option. Let's say he had held private conversations with Harry Reid and other Democratic Senate leaders, urging them to use any parliamentary procedures necessary to "ram our bill through" with the bare minimum of compromise with conservative Democrats and Republicans. Let's say that Sen. Reid had threatened Joe Lieberman and any other Senators in the Democratic caucus with the loss of their committee chairmanships if they vote with the Republicans to filibuster the bill.
We all know this is exactly what the Republicans would do with their electoral mandate, their president, their congressional majority, and their bill for whatever conservative ideas they would want to enact into law. However, Republicans aren't interested in making government work, so the only bills they would ram through are irresponsible tax cuts, support for big business, and expansion of the military and wars.
The tragedy is that if the Democrats used the same forceful tactics as the Republicans would use, they could actually prove to the American people that government CAN work to improve the lives of ordinary people. The fact that they act so weak, so compromising, so downright bullied by conservative members of their own caucus and by members of the other party, actually makes it erroneously seem to the voters that the Republicans are right and government can never work but is just a hopeless mess of corrupt politicians and endless bureaucracy.
So this is why Republicans always find a way to come back and win. It's because they project strength; the Democrats project weakness; and the Democrats' weakness makes it appear that government doesn't work, a perception that plays right into the hands of the purveyors of conservative Republican ideology.
What is the solution? Democrats need to act tough, like they deserve to have power and know how to use it. How can they learn how to do this? Perhaps they should try the "George Costanza method" that enabled the down-on-his-luck Seinfeld character to turn his life around: do the opposite of everything they normally would do. For it grows ever more apparent that their every instinct is wrong -- and that the American people will cast them out of office as a result.