Skip to main content

Last night as I lied awake I had an idea to look over what the most recognizable indicator of the American economy, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, has done during each Presidency as far back as I could go.

What I found won't be too shocking for us Progressives who know we're better managers of the economy, but it'll shock Conservatives to their very core. (Their very core being money)

Follow me past the fold as I take a revealing journey through the cold, hard, statistical facts of the last 80 years.

Methodology

Using Yahoo Finance's Dow Jones Industrial Average Historical prices tool I first gathered all of the prices for the Dow from as far back as it would let me go: Oct 1st, 1928. I then pulled up Wikipedia's List of American Presidents and checked the dates each man became President. I saw that the 1928 date put me in the middle of Calvin Coolidge's Presidency. I wanted to get full presidencies as much as possible (except for Obama who is of course in the middle of what I hope is an 8 year term.) so I skipped ahead to Herbert Hoover, thus giving me a start date of March 4th, 1929.

I then loaded all of these numbers in to Microsoft Excel and separated it by president, the raw data of which, along with graphs showing each President's tenure on the Dow, you can find here.

Then I took the starting and ending date for each President and put it in to another spreadsheet, adding formulas to show Point Change, Percentage Change, and Value vs. Start (Which I define as what was the value of the Dow at the end of the Presidency vs what it was at the beginning of it, so if it was 50 when you became president and 100 when you left the Value vs. Start is %200)

Results


Click image to enlarge

Some interesting things I noticed in these results.

- Since March 4th, 1929 Democratic Presidents have gained a net 10390.22 points on the Dow, compared to Republican Presidents gaining a net 155.49.

- Percentage wise Democrats have more than Doubled Republicans.

- No Democratic President during this time period lost value during their presidency. The one who came closest to doing so was Jimmy Carter (+1.25%)

- On the other hand 3 Republican Presidents have lost value during their Presidencies. Herbert Hoover (-82.85%), George W Bush (-21.71%), and Richard Nixon (-14.36%).

- Democratic Presidents Bill Clinton and Franklin D. Roosevelt are the top 2 percentage gainers during this time period. Democrats are also 3 of the top 5, and 6 of the top 10. The bottom 3 are all Republicans.

- Democrats would still have better percentage results if you dropped off their top percentage performer (Clinton) and Dropped off the Republican's top percentage loser (Hoover). In fact, even if you drop off Clinton AND the 3 Republicans who have lost value the Republicans would only lead by 18.42%

- Bill Clinton gained more points (7333.56) than all the other gainers combined (5902.88) and yet even with Clinton Dropped Democratic Presidents would still have gained over 19.5 times as many points as Republican Presidents. Democrats without Clinton would still have 210.44 more points if you dropped the 3 Republican point losing Presidents.

Of course the DJIA is not the be all and end all Economic indicator, there are a myriad of other factors; but Conservatives always claim to be the better party for business, these numbers seem to tell a different story.

Originally posted to http://liberal4lifeblog.blogspot.ca/ on Tue Dec 15, 2009 at 09:15 AM PST.

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags

?

More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    PBen

    "By the time an issue reaches my desk it's a hard issue. If it was an easy issue somebody else would have solved it." - President Obama.

    by hishighness on Tue Dec 15, 2009 at 09:12:27 AM PST

  •  Guess what... (0+ / 0-)

    ...if things keep going the way they are and this president and Congress do not do what the are SUPPOSED to do, then the Republicans WILL take over the economy issue and that will be the end of Dems.

  •  They have an answer for that (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JeffW

    If you parse the administrations a little more closely, you'll find that the divided Congress model provides the best returns. It's OK to have a Democratic president, but you also want at least the House or Senate in republican control.

    Personally, I think that's BS, but it's the response conservatives will give you to the point raised by this diary. Seen it many times.

    Every day's another chance to stick it to The Man. - dls.

    by The Raven on Tue Dec 15, 2009 at 09:30:35 AM PST

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site