Crossposted at BlueNC.
Today's story in North Carolina's U.S. Senate race is the release of DSCC endorsed Cal Cunningham's campaign prospectus (h/t Under the Dome), the kind of document that in years past either wouldn't be available or wouldn't be news.
Like you'd expect, the fundraising document outlines why Cal's team believes he can beat Richard Burr. "North Carolina is ripe for an off-year Democratic United States Senate victory and will respond well to an energetic, moderate candidate like Cal Cunningham." But will Cunningham be the Democratic candidate running against Burr? The prospectus does not mention the primary election, and with good reason - it's not in the bag.
Secretary of State Elaine Marshall is a force to be reckoned with, and her chances at this point have to be just as good as Cunningham's. In addition to being a very capable and qualified elected official, she has deep and long-standing connections to citizens and businesses across the state of North Carolina. She's likely to raise $1m for the primary, which would give her the tools to reach voters across North Carolina. And she has experience in winning races as the underdog (for example, when she beat NASCAR legend Richard Petty in 1996).
She's also likely to benefit from a demographic trend. For better or for worse, identity politics played a large role in 2008's Democratic Primary in North Carolina. In 2008, every woman in the Democratic Primary running for a statewide office won or was beaten by a woman. Many well-funded, vigorous campaigns were run and lost by people like Richard Moore and David Young. Perhaps the most striking example was in the NC-05 Democratic Primary, where Diane Hamby was outspent at least 5:1 and came within less than 500 votes (or %.6) of victory. Women came out in large numbers in 2008 and voted for female candidates. Women are expected to make up about 60% of the primary electorate in 2010, similar to the turnout in 2008. If the current trend favoring identity politics in primary voting continues - and that's a big if - Cunningham doesn't have a chance.
But 2010 won't be 2008. Identity politics come into play when voters don't know the candidates, and in 2010 our Democratic candidates will faces a much smaller, more informed primary electorate. The US Senate race will be at the top of the ticket. It is likely that all three candidates will have the financial resources to reach this smaller electorate. The DSCC candidate won't be the only candidate with TV ads, but the gender of the candidates won't be as important as it will be in 2008.
I'll quickly address another issue: some pundits have knocked Elaine's chances due to her weak primary showing in 2002 or due to her lack of support from the DSCC. However, you could just as easily assume that most savvy voters knew that Erskine Bowles was going to win the primary (or thought Dan Blue had the next best chance), deflating Elaine's vote total. Bowles was also able to bring a lot of personal money to the table, a situation that won't be repeated in 2010. And as reported by Under the Dome and other outlets, Elaine has endorsements of her own.
Kenneth Lewis has a harder path to a primary victory than Marshall or Cunningham, but that doesn't prevent him from having an outsized effect on the U.S. Senate race. In 2008, a candidate who entered the Democratic Primary in February with an almost non-existent campaign and fundraising operation finished third with 12.7% of the vote. Marcus Williams achieved this by going hyper local and focusing on constituencies in Eastern North Carolina.
On paper, Lewis is a much stronger candidate than Williams. He's already raised many times what Williams raised, and he will have the resources to communicate with voters. He'll easily beat Jim Neal's fundraising totals as well. He's had a campaign up and running for awhile, and has a head start when it comes to criss-crossing the state and recruiting volunteers. Since having three strong candidates in the race will make it hard for anyone to get 40% of the vote win the primary outright, a strong second place finish would keep Lewis in the running. Anything is possible in a runoff, and Lewis can get there with a strong campaign.
All that said, you have to like Cal Cunningham's chances in the primary. He will have the resources to make his case, and his campaign employs many people with enviable political talents. The DSCC has demonstrated that it is not afraid to spend significant amounts of money in primary races (see: Oregon, 2008). Cunningham may also have the resources and the field expertise to expand the primary electorate, something that will only help in the general election. He's already made a big splash and has been very savvy at controlling the spin with political insiders. Finally, he's made an effort to stay above the fray and stay positive during the primary - something that Kay Hagan did in 2008 with great success.
But then again, this isn't 2008. Cunningham's called many of the plays in the Hagan playbook, but he'll be facing much tougher competition than Hagan did. Instead of helping him coast to victory like in Hagan's case, the demographic trends are something Cal will likely have to overcome. In 2008, Hagan was able to blow the rest of the competition out of the water with money, won the vast majority of endorsements from influential community PACs with GOTV operations, and didn't have to worry about a grassroots competitior since Obama and Clinton monopolized the democratic volunteer base. Cunningham won't be that lucky, even if the DSCC starts providing lots of direct financial support.
It's hard to call anyone the frontrunner in this race. But it is certain that all three candidates have a path to victory, and an opportunity: to stay above the fray, keep the heat on Richard Burr, and to build a field operation that can expand the electorate. If all three candidates are on the airwaves, building personal relationships with voters and Democratic volunteers might end up making the difference in a close race ... and in beating Richard Burr.
Though I'm biased (as a former staffer for Jim Neal), I believe that Jim's vigorous campaign and field operation forced Kay Hagan to build a strong organization and become a better candidate - the kind of candidate that was able to defeat Elizabeth Dole. I have hope that the candidate forged in the fires of this primary will have the ability to take on Richard Burr.
Full Disclosure: I have not endorsed and currently have no plans to endorse any candidate in the Democratic Primary.