Right now, most discussion of our next Presidential candidate completely ignores the possiblity of John Kerry being the nominee again. However, are we arguing with our brains or with our hearts?
I don't want Kerry to be the nominee again and think we can do significantly better this time around. However, other candidates may be working from behind against a renewed Kerry campaign. The fact of the matter is that all indications are that Kerry has not been disheartened by his defeat, but rather fired up. Cameron Kerry has suggested that an '08 campaign is certainly `in the cards' and given the fact that John Kerry has dreamt of being President for decades I don't think it's a stretch to assume that he wants to run again.
If we are willing to accept the idea that Kerry is going to run again, the question then becomes `how likely is he to get the nomination'? The first thing to remember, is that Kerry has almost
$50 Million left in his recount fund. As it currently looks as though Kerry wont be funding any recount, he will have that money left over for a new campaign in '08. So, Kerry will have a huge edge in fundraising for the primaries over almost every candidate. Perhaps more importantly, he is going to have another big advantage in name recognition. A Gallup Poll conducted November 7-10 showed Kerry was the
second choice of Democrats for '08, behind only Hilary Clinton. Finally, Kerry also has the advantage of a large base of support amongst party insiders. These advantages present a serious problem for the other candidates to overcome.
Kerry already has more money than almost any candidate raised this year during the primaries. John Warner is independently wealthy and could compete if he was willing to spend $60 Million of his own money. Hilary Clinton has displayed that ability to riase a tremendous amount of money, $30 Million for her 2000 Senate Campaign. However, none of the other candidates appear able to compete financially with Kerry.
In terms of recognition, only Hilary Clinton and John Edwards can compete with Kerry. The problem is that John Edwards doesn't have a job come January and may well drop out of the public's view over the next four years. Hilary Clinton also has a problem in '06, she's up for re-election and may face a stiff challenge from Giuliani or Pataki. The Republicans are hate the Clintons and are certain to `go after' Hilary in the election. Can she emerge from an ugly Senate campaign looking good enough to survive the primaries?
Lastly, Kerry's advantage amongst party insiders may turn out to be critical. Consider the relationship between Vilsack and Kerry. The two established a fairly close relationship during the campaign and now Vilsack is running for DNC Chair. Should he get the post, he will definetly maintain the status quo which would be advantageous for Kerry and disandvantageous for any outsider running. Likewise, it would mean that small, northern, white states would dominate the early primaries - not exactly helpful for any southern candidates. A Vilsack victory would certainly help Kerry in a quest to win the nomination a second time, but it is far from his only advantage. Simply look at how Kerry was able to win the nomination this year despite opposition from a very strong Dean campaign supported by an incredible grassroots presence. Obviously, he has a great deal of clout within the party. Kerry is also well known amongst party strategists and their ilk. A large part of the primary process is convincing the right people to work for you, Kerry would have a good head start there.
Perhaps the last thing to point to a possible edge for Kerry is the potential of the next four years. Should things go poorly for the country in Iraq, the War on Terror or with the economy, Senator Kerry will be perfectly positioned to say "told you so". Considering the fact that most other top candidates are not in a position to do so - Clinton supported Bush on most issues, Edwards takes a back seat to Kerry in that light and the other top contenders are Governors and have not been well positioned to criticize Bush.
While I think that vast majority of individuals here at Dkos would agree that they are not interested in seeing Kerry win the nomination again. However, there are several considerations evident at the moment which would suggest that Kerry is in an extremely strong position to win the nomination again. Kossacks may be dead set again a Clinton or Kerry candidacy in '08, what we are going to be able to do to prevent them, however, is a mystery.