Yesterday the Census Bureau released its 2009 population estimates for the States, which will be the final set released before State counts from Census 2010 are released next December.
http://www.census.gov/...
I used these figures, along with those from 2008, 2007 , 2006, and 2005 to forecast the various State Populations on Census Day 2010. Then I used those numbers to predict the likely changes in the Electoral College.
The predicted changes are as follows, each with at least 50% likelihood:
Increases:
Texas +4
Arizona +2
Florida +1
Georgia +1
Washington +1
South Carolina +1
Utah +1
Nevada +1
Decreases:
Ohio -2
California -1
New York -1
Illinois -1
Pennsylvania -1
Michigan -1
New Jersey -1
Massachusetts -1
Louisiana -1
Iowa -1
Sharp minds will realize that that leaves 2 Electoral Votes unaccounted for. There are five States vying for them, but none individually has a 50% of getting them. However, they have to go somewhere. Two of the five will be looking to add a seat, while the other three will be looking to avoid losing a seat.
These are:
North Carolina 0/+1
Oregon 0/+1
Missouri -1/0
Minnesota -1/0
Rhode Island -1/0
For these states, it will come down to census participation.