The elections are 11 months away, so I am going to start this series again, updating my earlier ones.
AL: 7 CDs, 4 Rep 3 Dem. Vul: Bright (D) in AL-02 and Rogers (R) in AL-03. AL-05 is a mystery
Filing deadline April 2.
AK: 1 CD, a Rep, does not look vulnerable
Filing deadline: June 1
AZ: 8 CDs, 3 Rep., 5 Dem; none look very vulnerable
Filing deadline: May 26
AR: 4 CDs, 1 Rep., 3 Dem.; none vulnerable
Filing deadline: March 8
Sources:
House vote in 2008 from AOL
VoteView (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)
Race Tracker
Obama vote by CD from Swing State (other stuff there too).
and my previous diaries.
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District: AL-01
Location : the southwest part of AL, bordering MS, FL, and the Gulf of Mexico. It has a weird finger taken out of it, that is part of AL-07 map
Cook PVI R + 14
Representative Jo Bonner (R)
VoteView ranking 310/447
First elected 2002
2008 margin Unopposed
2006 margin 68-32
2004 margin 63-37
Obama margin 2008 39-61
Bush margin 2004 64-35
Current opponents No Democrat, but he has two primary opponents.
Demographics A low-income ($34K, rank = 345), rural (36%, rank = 100), conservative district
Assessment This is a long shot, even if someone runs
District: AL-02
Location The southeast quarter of AL, bordering FL and GA, and including Montgomery map
Cook PVI R + 16
Representative Bobby Bright (D)
VoteView rating NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin 50-50; 1,700 votes of 485,000 cast
2006 margin NA
2004 margin 71-28
Obama margin 2008 39-61
Bush margin 2004 67-33
Current opponents The only confirmed opponent is Martha Roby, but many others are considering running.
Demographics Similar to the 1st, but poorer (med income = $32K, rank = 378) and more rural (50%, rank = 48th). This was one of the highest percentages of Blacks of any Republican represented district (only 7 had more Blacks)
Assessment This was open in 2008, as Terry Everitt retired. This cycle, Bright has raised $631K and spent $184K; Roby has raised $216K and spent $38K. Perhaps the most vulnerable Democrat in the House (only one close is Minnick in ID-01)
District: AL-03
Location Most of the eastern part of AL, bordering GA, including Talladega and Tuskegee map
Cook PVI R + 9
Representative Mike Rogers (R)
VoteView rating 299/447
First elected 2002
2008 margin 53-47 over Joshua Segall
2006 margin 59-38
2004 margin 61-39
Obama margin 2008 43-56
Bush margin 2004 58-41
Current opponents Joshua Segall (site in development, clearly)
Demographics Like the 1st and 2nd, but even more so. Median income is $31K (rank = 400); 32.2% Black (rank = 41st).
Assessment Segall ran in 2008, and lost, but this district is trending more and more D. Black turnout will be key; Rogers did 3 points better than McCain. Rogers has raised $513K and spent $210; Segall has raised $215K and spent $52 K.
District: AL-04
Location Northern AL, but south of AL-05, runs from MS to GA map.
Cook PVI R + 26
Representative Robert Aderholt (R)
VoteView rating 311/447
First elected 1996
2008 margin 75-25 over Nicholas Sparks
2006 margin 70-30
2004 margin 75-25
Obama margin 2008 23-76
Bush margin 2004 71-28
Current opponents None declared.
Demographics The second most rural district in the country (73.5%) (only KY-05 is more rural).
Assessment Another long shot, even if someone runs
District: AL-05
Location The northernmost part of AL, running from MS to GA, and borders TN. Includes Huntsville and Decautur map
Cook PVI R + 12
Representative Parker Griffith (D) but now R
VoteView rating NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin 52-48
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 2008 38-61
Bush margin 2004 60-39
Current opponents At least two Repubs running
Demographics Not quite as poor as other AL districts.
Assessment The former rep, Cramer was one of the most conservative Dems in the House. Griffith then ran as a Democrat and won, after Cramer retired. Now he has switched parties, and the race is in turmoil. Will other Republicans challenge? Will any Democrats run? Susan Parker and Ron Sparks are considering doing so.
District: AL-06
Location More or less the middle of the state, but shaped like a V to allow AL-07 to include as many Blacks as possible map
Cook PVI R + 29
Representative Spencer Bacchus (R) May retire
VoteView rating 333/447
First elected 1992
2008 margin Unopposed
2006 margin unopposed
2004 margin unopposed
Obama margin 2008 23-76
Bush margin 2004 78-22
Notes on opponents none
Current opponents no Democrats, but two Republicans
Demographics One of the most Republican district per Cook PVI, only UT-03 is more so, and only TX-11, TX-13 and TX-19 are equally so
Assessment If we have to skip a race, this is probably the one; it's not clear if Bacchus is running again, but a Republican will win.
District: AL-07
Location Mostly in western AL, bordering MS, this district has two 'fingers' to include more Blacks map
Cook PVI D + 18
Representative Artur Davis Retiring to run for governor
VoteView rating NA
First elected NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin 75-25
Obama margin 2008 61-39
Bush margin 2004 35-64
Notes on opponents None close
Current opponents A whole lot of Democrats running; no Republicans. Safe Democratic seat.
Demographics The majority Black district in AL, it's got the 5th highest percentage of Blacks of any district in the USA (61.7%) (more so are IL-01, IL-02, LA-02 and MS-02) and the 5th lowest median income ($27K) (lower are CA-31, KY-05, NY-16 and WV-03)
Assessment With Davis retiring, maybe we can get a real progressive here. It's safe for the Democrats
District: AK-AL
Location You know where Alaska is!
Cook PVI R + 13
Representative Don Young (R)
VoteView ranking 320/447
First elected 1973
2008 margin 50-45
2006 margin 57-40
2004 margin 71-22
Obama margin 2008 39-61
Bush margin 2004 61-36
Current opponents Harry Crawford is running and Ethan Berkowitz, who ran in 2008, may run again. Primary is also possible.
Demographics Alaska has a higher percentage of veterans than most places (16.4%, 30th place); it's also about the 50th most Republican district, in national races.
Assessment Ordinarily, AK is about as Republican as it gets, Young won narrowly in 2008, but this year may be easier for him.
District: AZ-01
Location The northeastern three-quarters of the state, bordering UT and CO, with a chunk missing: map
Cook PVI R + 6
Representative Ann Kirkpatrick(D)
VoteView ranking 270/447 (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)
First elected 2008
2008 margin 56-40 over Sydney Hay
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 2008 44-54
Bush margin 2004 54-46
Current opponents Paul Gosar, Bradley Beauchamp, and Russell Bowers are running.
Demographics Poorer (median income is $33K, about 371st place; and more rural (44.5%, 363rd place) than most districts; 10th highest percentage of people who are neither White, Black, nor Latino (22.1% Native American)
Assessment Renzi (R) retired, and Kirkpatrick won fairly easily. Kirkpatrick has raised over 700K and spent about 170K. None of her opponents have raised much. Could be vulnerable, but McCain's total was inflated by favorite son effect.
District: AZ-02
Location An oddly shaped district, it includes the northwest part of the state (bordering NV and UT) and a blob in the northern middle of the state, connected by a strand (this is tribal gerrymandering, separating two Native American groups), and another blob that reaches to the western suburbs of Phoenix: map
Cook PVI R + 13
Representative Trent Franks (R)
VoteView ranking 442/447
First elected 2002
2008 margin 60-37 over John Thrasher
2006 margin 59-39
2004 margin 59-39
Obama margin 2008 38-61
Bush margin 2004 61-38
Current opponents None declared. Franks also has not yet declared, and he has spent exactly what he has raised, a relatively small $250K. No other Republican has declared either, but this is pretty safe R territory.
Demographics Only 7 districts have more veterans.
Assessment A longshot, whether Franks retires or not. Franks is one of the most conservative members of the House.
District: AZ-03
Location North of Phoenix, including Paradise Valley and Carefree: map
Cook PVI R + 9
Representative John Shadegg (R) May retire
VoteView ranking 443/447 (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)
First elected 1994
2008 margin 54-42 over Bob Lord
2006 margin 59-38
2004 margin 80-20 (against a Libertarian)
Obama margin 2008 42-57
Bush margin 2004 58-41
Current opponents Jon Hulbard is running. Hulbard looks like a blue dog, but anyone is better than Shadegg. Bob Lord may run again.
Demographics Not unusual on any of the statistics I track
Assessment This is Republican territory, but not overwhelmingly; Shadegg is a real rightwinger, but Lord lost in 2008. Shadegg has raised $323K and spent $189K. Hulbard just got started.
District: AZ-04
Location Phoenix and Glendale: map
Cook PVI D + 13
Representative Ed Pastor (D)
VoteView ranking 65/447
First elected 1991
2008 margin 72-21 over Don Karg
2006 margin 73-24
2004 margin 70-26
Obama margin 2008 66-33
Bush margin 2004 38-62
Current opponents Tom Pawlenko is running, Karg may run again.
Demographics Poor (median income = $31K, rank = 402) and with a huge Latino population (58%, rank = 20).
Assessment Safe, although Pastor has not officially declared, and has spent all that he has raised.
District: AZ-05
Location East and north of Phoenix, including Tempe: map
Cook PVI R + 5
Representative Harry Mitchell (D)
VoteView ranking 230/447
First elected 2006
2008 margin Unopposed
2006 margin 53-45 over David Schweikert.
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 2008 47-52
Bush margin 2004 54-45
Current opponents David Schweikert, Jim Ward and Eric Wnuck are running
Demographics Relatively wealthy (median income = $52K, rank = 83), with a high proportion of people who are neither White, Black, nor Latino (7.2%, rank = 134; including 3.3% Asian and 1.8% Native American).
Assessment Mitchell beat Schweikert as a freshman, he should do so again, but this is not a shoo-in. Mitchell has raised $644K and spent $152K; Schweikert raised $303 and spent little, Ward $209K and little, and Wnuck $164K and little. We can hope that the Repubs destroy each other in the primary.
District: AZ-06
Location In the southeastern part of AZ, but not bordering any other state: map
Cook PVI R + 15
Representative Jeff Flake (R)
VoteView ranking 445/447
First elected 2000
2008 margin 62-35 over Rebecca Schneider
2006 margin 75-25 (against a Libertarian)
2004 margin 79-21 (against a Libertarian)
Obama margin 2008 38-61
Bush margin 2004 64-35
Current opponents Schneider is running again.
Demographics Lots of veterans (15.8%, rank = 45) and Latinos (17.2%, rank = 105).
Assessment This is a longshot; Flake is crazy, and wins easily. But I really like Schneider; I like her website (see above) and I like how she answered my questions here on dailyKos.
District: AZ-07
Location Southwestern AZ, bordering CA and Mexico: map
Cook PVI D + 6
Representative Raul Grijalva (D)
VoteView ranking 24/447 (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)
First elected 2002
2008 margin 63-33 over John Sweeney
2006 margin 61-34
2004 margin 62-34
Obama margin 2008 57-42
Bush margin 2004 43-57
Current opponents Ruth McClung
Demographics Very poor (median income $31K, rank = 10) and mostly Latino (50.6%, rank = 23)
Assessment Safe; Grijalva has raised $227K and spent $148K and McClung has raised little.
District: AZ-08
Location The southeast corner of AZ, bordering Mexico and NM: map
Cook PVI R + 4
Representative Gabrielle Gifford (D)
VoteView ranking 231/447 (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)
First elected 2006
2008 margin 55-43 over Tim Bee
2006 margin 54-42
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 2008 46-52
Bush margin 2004 53-46
Current opponents Jesse Kelly, Tom Carlson, Andy Goss, Brian Miller and Jonathan Paton are all running.
Demographics Another district with a lot of veterans (19.1%, rank = 20)
Assessment Giffords has now won twice, and should be OK again. She has raised an impressive $900K, and spent about $185K. None of her opponents have raised much.
District: AR-01
Location The northeast portion of AR, including Jonesboro, bordering MO, TN, and MS: map
Cook PVI R + 8
Representative Marion Berry (D)
VoteView ranking 183/447 (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)
First elected 1996
2008 margin Unopposed
2006 margin 69-31
2004 margin 67-33
Obama margin 2008 44-54
Bush margin 2004 52-47
Current opponents Rick Crawford
Demographics One of the most rural (55.5%, rank = 26) and poorest (median income = $29K, rank = 417) districts.
Assessment Berry, among the most conservative Democrats in the House, is probably safe. He has raised $357K and spent $230K. His opponent has raised little.
District: AR-02
Location The middle of the state, including Little Rock: map
Cook PVI R + 5
Representative Vic Snyder (D)
VoteView ranking 172/447
First elected 1996
2008 margin 77-23 against Deb McFarland (Green)
2006 margin 61-39
2004 margin 58-42
Obama margin 2008 44-54
Bush margin 2004 51-48
Current opponents David Meeks, Tim Griffin and Scott Wallace.
Demographics Not unusual on anything I track
Assessment Snyder has won easily in the past, but has raised no money at all .... did he just declare? Griffin has raised $130K and spent nothing, the others have raised little.
District: AR-03
Location Northwestern AR, including Fayetteville, bordering MO and OK: map
Cook PVI R + 16
Representative John Boozman (R) May retire
VoteView ranking 312/447
First elected 2001
2008 margin 78-22 against Abel Tomlinson (Green)
2006 margin 62-38
2004 margin 59-38
Obama margin 2008 34-63
Bush margin 2004 62-36
Current opponents Larry Stricklin (no website, some info here and David Whitaker are Democrats. Bernard Skoch, a RWNJ, is running too.
Demographics Not unusual on anything I track
Assessment Longshot; Boozman has raised $200K and spent $85K. Neither Democrat has raised much.
District: AR-04
Location Southern AR bordering LA, TX and OK: map
Cook PVI R + &
Representative Mike Ross (D)
VoteView ranking 213/447
First elected 2000
2008 margin 86-14 against Joshua Drake (Green)
2006 margin 75-25
2004 margin unopposed
Obama margin 2008 39-58
Bush margin 2004 51-48
Current opponents Marc Rosson.
Demographics Poor (median income = $30K, rank = 124), Black (24.4%, rank = 66) and rural (55.3% rank = 28)
Assessment Safe; Ross has raised $700K and spent $300K. His opponent has raised little.