I can (half) understand why John Kerry is so pissed at Howard Dean. Dean's decision to opt-out of the federal matching funds system, the better to do battle against Bush, puts Kerry in a pickle. Here's why.
As of the end of the 3rd quarter, Kerry had raised a total of $20 million. Nearly $9 million of that is from $2,000 "fat cat" contributors who are now tapped out. The government will only match the first $250 of each contribution -- that's a lot of unmatched money.
I estimate Kerry will raise another $3 million in the 4th quarter. If Dean is up above $10 million so far in the quarter (some in pledges), and Clark expects $6 million for the entire 4th quarter, then, when factoring in the tapped out contributors and poll challenges, a $3 million quarter for Kerry would be a good one. (Kerry is only just starting to focus on small donor contributions, and he's mostly doing it the traditional way, with direct mail pleas from Max Cleland.) That's a total of $23 million.
Thus I estimate Kerry gets $10 million in matching funds this January should he participate.
So that means Kerry would be at $33 million total. That's still $12 million shy of the $45 million overall spending limit. Thus Kerry is in no danger of bumping up against overall caps during the primary fight, at least.
A big government check in January must be tempting to the Kerry folks. It would certainly help keep the lights on. No doubt many of the folks making the decision would like to get their paychecks. (Gephardt just cut his staff's pay.) Kerry has been burning through cash expecting that payday. (Only Dean and some of the minor candidates spent less than they raised in 3rd quarter.)
On the other hand, if Kerry stays in the system that'll signal that he won't be able to compete financially against Bush -- that he'll be less "electable" than Dean. He also will have to live with New Hampshire (and Massachusetts) state spending limits for that all important survival primary he faces.
Tough decision. It's coming up, though. December 1st is the deadline, and there's no going back. Once a candidate accepts a dime in federal money he's stuck with the limits until the national convention.