With a last minute prime-time ad buy in the district at over $600/point (more than double the $240/point paid by the DCCC for its advance purchase), The NRCC will end up spending over $5 million on the California 50 special election next Tuesday. Republicans are panicking about what a Busbee win would mean for its candidates in November. Not only would Busby get us one seat closer to a Democratic House, but it would help shape the media narrative for the election.
The DCCC has responded with $1.8 million (which has gone further than the NRCC's cash because of the lower ad rates), and Busby has raised a crapload more money than Bilbray. which doesn't necessarily equalize the money wars, but it means that Busby has had enough to be competitive.
Bilbray has other problems.
Republican Sen. John McCain was scheduled to host a fundraiser for congressional candidate Brian Bilbray today - but immigration got in the way.
Bilbray has disdainfully called the McCain-backed immigration bill "amnesty" for illegal immigrants, something McCain disputes. Bilbray's Democratic opponent in the race, Francine Busby, supports the Arizona senator's proposal, calling it "a tough, comprehensive plan."
Yesterday, as Busby pointed out the irony with online ads, McCain pulled out of the fundraiser.
As Stoller points out, McCain, and to a much lesser extent, Giuliani, are the only Republicans left with any star power who can help draw positive press and votes. Bush and Cheney are so unpopular that they must do their big-dollar fundraisers in the dead of the night, under cloak of secrecy.
Having McCain abandon Bilbray has got to hurt, no doubt about it.
So will the GOP's big money spigot pull Bilbray out of the fire in this solidly Republican district? We'll find out in less than a week.
Until then, we can do our part to help win this race.