Let me be frank; Arlen Specter cannot possibly defeat Pat Toomey in a Republican primary for U.S. Senate, and unless something changes, that is what will happen in 2010. The math does not exist for him. He barely won the last time against Toomey in '04 with Bush endorsing him and with a much more moderate Pennsylvania Republican Party. Now the GOP in Pennsylvania is more conservative than ever, and they're going hard at Arlen Specter for his vote on the economic stimulus package and for his likely vote in favor of unions regarding "card check".
Some people have said that he could pull "a Lieberman", declaring an independent campaign as the incumbent after losing the primary. Well, that's against the law in Pennsylvania.
Arlen Specter used to be a Democrat, but he switched in '65 so he could run for district attorney in Philadelphia. He is part of a dying breed of north-eastern Republicans. His party's base despises him. He's going to lose his primary in 2010. He knows he's going to lose it, so he only has two real options. The first is declaring that he will retire once his term is up. The second is to return to the Democratic Party. Considering Senator Specter's age, a retirement is still a certain possibility. But if he decides that he still wants to be in the U.S. Senate, his best chance is to abandon the Republican Party.
He'd likely be able to pick up Governor Rendell's endorsement(they go back.), and God knows he's been given plenty of reason to leave the Party of Limbaugh and Bush. Rush Limbaugh has certainly given him reason, and with what the leader of the minority party has said recently about Specter's good friend, Ted Kennedy, he has a credible reason for abandoning the sinking ship now beyond the obvious reason of political-survival.
So here's a question for the community; would you accept Arlen Specter as the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in 2010?