There's been plenty of commentary here and elsewhere (Ruy Teixeira most prominently)...but I thought this particular item is worth another look. A Yahoo story (below) has a link to a USAToday/Gallup likely voter screen applet. Try it...do you get similar results to me? (More below)
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=676&e=8&u=/usatoday/20041026/ts_usatoday
/newvotersarexfactorofelection
I rated only a 6, although normally I should be considered an extremely likely voter...I've voted in every election since I turned 18, even local runoffs (I live in SF). Why am I only a 6? Because I answered "No" to the question about have I ever voted in my district/polling area. I haven't. Why? BECAUSE I MOVED! I bought a new house. Many folks have done this recently, given the low interest rates, etc. Because of this one factor, I'm apparently weighted much lower in likely voters. If I wasn't sure where my new polling place was, I wouldn't even be a LV at all.
Does Gallup skew toward R likely voters because more D and I voters have moved more recently, and thus don't qualify as a LV?
Stuff to ponder over a few celebratory champagne glasses next week...