One of the reasons I want to see Dean win the nomination is because I think he could very possibly revive the Democratic Party and take back control of Congress in the 2006 elections. Let me give a quick rundown of what I see happening, as I believe an approximation of this is probably the Dean campaign's long term goal.
First, Dean wins the nomination. Obviously, this has to happen. Now, once Dean has won the nomination, he goes into full campaign mode against Bush. However, as has already been leaked, he also plans to utilize his grassroots support to lend assistance to 20-25 close congressional races. I suspect this support will take the form of both money and volunteer work. Dean has already shown his ability to use his supporters to financially support a Dem candidate by raising over $50,000 for Rep. Boswell in Iowa.
So let's say he does this with another 20 or so candidates during the 2004 election, as something of a trial run. Obviously, this will help them out. Once Dean hits the official general election season, he takes his $75 million in public financing and unleashes his hundreds of thousands of contributors on tight Congressional races. It might make the difference in a few of those races and push a few more Dems into Congress.
Okay, so we assume Dean wins in 2004 and brings the House closer to a split and also puts the Senate closer to a split, or maybe even swings it Democratic. Now we have an interesting situation. Dean is going to go into the White House with a divided Congress and, no doubt, a hostile Republican party against them that will almost surely still be in control of the House, even if only by a small margin.
Dean begins pushing his agenda. Part of this is pushing it hard through BFA and getting his supporters lined up behind it. Understand that Dean should now have at least a million registered supporters and very possibly more. He'll have a wide base with plenty of people that are damn dedicated to him. They're going to badger their reps about the legislation and talk it up to friends and family. Dean will have his supporters pushing his legislation just as hard as he will be. I think this will lead to some success. But still, Republicans are going to do their best to block him most of the time.
So now Dean begins to get a social meme going through his supporters that the Republicans are obstructionists. He pushes this hard and it becomes pretty widespread reported leading into the 2006 elections. Not facing reelection yet, Dean takes firm control of his considerable grassroots support and aims it very specifically at tight races that Dems can take. He brings out huge financial support for these guys. (Imagine $75-100 million in small donations being targeted at, say, 30-40 important House, Senate and Governor races). Just as important, he pushes his supporters as volunteers for these campaigns. Urges local supporters to sign up and help their local Dems. Gets out canvassers. And finally sets up huge phonebanks, letter-writing coalitions and other GOTV efforts. He also has firm control of the DNC at this point with new leadership who are hugely focused on keeping the media in check and countering the Republican's attacks. Meanwhile, Dean is pushing the meme that Republicans are obstructionists who are blocking these good bills and hurting the country. He makes it clear that Dem control of Congress would allow him to accomplish his progressive agenda.
Dems take back congress. They get just enough of a margin in the House and Senate that they can begin getting through much of Dean's legislation. In my opinion, this will be good legislation that a lot of the country will support and agree with. Dean rides these two years of cooperation and his grassroots support to reelection in 2008 and possibly even greater Democratic control of Congress.
The Democratic Party is reborn. The country undergoes a major Progressive swing. The Republican Party is forced to retreat and reorganize while they deal with the new political and social balance.
This is one of the main reasons I want to see Dean win the nomination.
Thoughts?